[EL] Nomination Rules and the Republican Contest

[Lowenstein, Daniel]

        In this Real Clear Politics essay, Sean Trende considers four questions about the Republican nomination contest.  The one of most interest to this listserv is the second, in which he considers how the timing of the primaries and contests affect analysis of the candidates' prospects.  The rules are especially salient in this year's Republican contest, because except for a few identified states, those holding their primaries and caucuses before March 1 are penalized half their delegates.  Those going after March 31 are rewarded by being permitted to use winner-take-all.  Trende concludes that Perry has a real chance to win the nomination early, but that in a protracted contest, the rules give Romney an edge.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/08/16/romney_vs_perry_how_the_numbers_and_the_calendar_stack_up_110953.html

             Best,

             Daniel H. Lowenstein
             Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions (CLAFI)
             UCLA Law School
             405 Hilgard
             Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
             310-825-5148