[EL] Plurality / majority -- Re: FW: An Electoral College Tie?

Smith, Brad BSmith at law.capital.edu
Sat Dec 17 12:30:46 PST 2011


Rob writes:
"Finally, it's hard to imagine a less legitimate way to become president then in an all-to-plausible scenario under current Electoral College rules: a Republican losing the popular vote in 2012, but winning an Electoral College majority only due to state Republican leaders in some combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio having changed winner-take-all Electoral College rules to allocating electoral votes by congressional district. Given concern about legitimate winners,, Mark, what's your take on some Republicans in Democratic-leaning states trying to change to congressional district allocation, but opposing it in Republican-leaning states?"

But that just shows that it is the legitimacy of the process that matters, not popular vote per se, which is what the NPV largely hangs it hat on.

Here's perhaps an less legitimate way to become president under NPV, also an all-too plausible scenario:

Realizing that its votes electoral college votes could result in the opposing party's candidate winning the presidency, a state legislature dominated by one party pulls out of the interstate NPV compact during the election cycle. The result is that the opposing party wins a plurality of the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College vote.







Bradley A. Smith

Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault

   Professor of Law

Capital University Law School

303 E. Broad St.

Columbus, OH 43215

614.236.6317

http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx

________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Rob Richie [rr at fairvote.org]
Sent: Saturday, December 17, 2011 2:19 PM
To: Scarberry, Mark
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] Plurality / majority -- Re: FW: An Electoral College Tie?


Mark,

NPV winners will almost always win more electoral votes than winners under today's rules -- e.g,that candidate will win all the electoral votes of states in the compact, plus usually a good number from other nonparticipating states as well.

That said, does gaining an Electoral College majority matter for "legitimizing" winners? I doubt it, at least in the modern era. Take Bill Clinton after his 1992 victory, which was large in the Electoral College, but based on only 43% of the popular vote. Then-Senate minority leader Bob Dole was quick to exercise the filibuster in 1993, even directly comparing his 43 GOP senators to Clinton's 43% of the vote. Taking it a step forward, it's questionable that many Senate Republicans have accepted Barack Obama as a legitimate president even though Obama won both a majority of the popular vote and a large majority in the Electoral College.

Finally, it's hard to imagine a less legitimate way to become president then in an all-to-plausible scenario under current Electoral College rules: a Republican losing the popular vote in 2012, but winning an Electoral College majority only due to state Republican leaders in some combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio having changed winner-take-all Electoral College rules to allocating electoral votes by congressional district.  Given concern about legitimate winners,, Mark, what's your take on some Republicans in Democratic-leaning states trying to change to congressional district allocation, but opposing it in Republican-leaning states?

For me, I believe in the legitimacy of the fair fight represented by a national popular vote, which both major parties have shown an equal ability to win.
Rob


On Sat, Dec 17, 2011 at 12:41 PM, Scarberry, Mark <Mark.Scarberry at pepperdine.edu<mailto:Mark.Scarberry at pepperdine.edu>> wrote:
One of the benefits of the current electoral vote system, at least one that defenders of it have often cited, is that it turns a popular vote plurality into an electoral college majority in a way that helps to legitimize the winner. The way it does that is to provide an intermediate step that is independent of the national popular vote and that represents in a real sense the votes of the people in each particular state. That intermediate step is lacking under the NPV system in which a plurality of the popular vote automatically turns into a majority in the electoral college without regard to the separate voting in each state. Reasonable people may disagree about whether the existence of that intermediate step really does have any legitimizing effect, but it is a real difference between the current system and the NPV system.

Mark Scarberry

Mark S. Scarberry
Professor of Law
Pepperdine Univ. School of Law
Malibu, CA 90263
(310) 506-4667<tel:%28310%29%20506-4667>


-----Original Message-----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] On Behalf Of Thomas J. Cares
Sent: Saturday, December 17, 2011 7:29 AM
To: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] Plurality / majority -- Re: FW: An Electoral College Tie?

How does that make it less majoritarian than EC votes being awarded
based on states' and (for Maine and Nebraska) congressional districts'
plurality winners?

1992 had 49 states with no majority winner. How would Clinton have
been less of a majority winner under the proposed NPV system?

Thomas Cares


Sent from my iPad

On 12/17/11, JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com> <JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com>> wrote:
> But under the NPV, a majority of the Electoral College votes are cast for
> the winner of the popular vote -- not a candidate that gets a majority of
> the  popular vote.  So it is a plurality winner system.  Jim
>
>
> In a message dated 12/16/2011 5:25:23 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> dan.johnsonweinberger at gmail.com<mailto:dan.johnsonweinberger at gmail.com> writes:
>
> Jim  suggests that the statewide winner-take-all rule generates a
> majoritarian  dimension to presidential selection as the candidate
> needs a majority of  the Electoral College to win the presidency (or a
> majority of the House).  He claims that the NPV rule suffers from the
> lack of any majoritarian  rule.
>
> He is wrong.
>
> A candidate must earn a majority of the votes  of the Electoral College
> in order to win the presidency, whether earned  through the statewide
> winner-take-all rule, the NPV compact or a  Nebraska/Maine hybrid.
>
> This majoritarian feature does not change when  the National Popular
> Vote compact is agreed to by state legislatures that,  together, are
> vested with a majority of the votes of the Electoral College  by the
> Constitution. That's the essential constitutional feature that the  NPV
> compact does not (indeed, can not) alter.
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec  16, 2011 at 2:48 PM, Joe La Rue <joseph.e.larue at gmail.com<mailto:joseph.e.larue at gmail.com>>
> wrote:
>> Paul,
>>
>> Only thinking beings can have goals.  Systems further goals, but they
> cannot
>> of themselves have them. To  formulate a goal, one must be able to think,
>> strategize, etc. Systems  cannot do that. They can only further the goals
> of
>> the people that  create the system. People set goals ("we should educate
>> children"; "we  should rehabilitate prisoners"; "we should choose our
>> leaders"; etc.),  then develop a system to further the goal.
>>
>> Joe
>>  ___________________
>> Joseph E. La Rue, Esq.
>>
>>  CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE:  This e-mail message, including any attachments,
>  is
>> for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain
> confidential
>> and privileged information or otherwise be protected by  law. Any
>> unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is  prohibited. If
> you
>> are not the intended recipient, please contact the  sender by reply e-mail
>> and destroy all copies of the original  message.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Dec 16, 2011 at 2:28 PM, Paul  Lehto <lehto.paul at gmail.com<mailto:lehto.paul at gmail.com>>
> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Dec 16, 2011 at  1:25 PM, Joe La Rue <joseph.e.larue at gmail.com<mailto:joseph.e.larue at gmail.com>>
>>>  wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Trevor and  Paul,
>>>>
>>>> First, obviously Paul is right: a system  cannot have a goal. Rather,
>>>> people have goals, and an  implemented system should further goals. I
> spoke
>>>> imprecisely,  though I think everyone knew what I meant.
>>>
>>>
>>>  But systems DO have goals: the prison system has a goal and purposes,
> the
>>> educational system has goals, etc.
>>>
>>> The  question before us is what are the proper purpose(s) of democratic
>>>  elections, and do these purposes or goals properly include election of
> the
>>> "best" person, if the fundamental goals of our nation include,  as they
> do,
>>> liberty via self-government?  [The answer to that  is No]
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Second, I think the goal of  the people who vote for president is to
> elect
>>>> the best person  for the job. Republicans vote for Republicans because
> they
>>>>  believe that a Republican president will be better than the
> alternative,  and
>>>> Democrats do the same. As for what the Chinese Communist  told you,
> Trevor,
>>>> you can do what you want, but I don't put  much stock in a Communist
>>>> appraisal of our  system.
>>>
>>>
>>> I put a kind of "negative stock"  in the Chinese Communist appraisal of
> our
>>> system.  The  Chinese Communist's observation that western systems reject
>>> "best  person" results-oriented philosophy in elections amounts to a
>>>  revealing self-critique on their part (from our perspective here in  the
>>> west).  It shows how the decision to privilege the idea  of achieving
> some
>>> sort of subjective "best person" result over the  fundamental
> requirement of
>>> free elections leads to the damage of  liberty, or to the destruction of
>>> liberty - as it does in  China.   In China, they rationalize the absence
> of
>>>  liberty and free elections via the primacy and necessity of selecting
> the
>>> "best person" for the job.
>>>
>>> Whoever or  whatever decides or controls the "best person" for the job IS
>>> the  sovereign.  Under free elections, the sovereign is all the  co-equal
>>> voters, because they each decide what's "best".   Under non-free systems
> of
>>> governance, the voters can't be trusted  to choose the "best," so to some
>>> partial or total degree the  choices are managed for them by external
>>> standards.  (e.g.,  the right Communist party hack for the job).
>>>
>>> How we  understand the fundamental purposes and goals of elections is at
>>>  the heart of Citizens United as well.  In the opinion, the  majority
>>> distinguishes prior case law on First Amendment  restrictions in, for
>>> example, prison systems and educational  systems, and points out that the
>>> limited restrictions on the First  Amendment that continue to be upheld
> are
>>> upheld in order to uphold  the fundamental PURPOSES of those systems or
>>>  institutions.
>>>
>>> Apparently, as Joe LaRue suggests above  at the top, supporters of
> Citizens
>>> United implicitly (and now  expressly, per Joe's statement) believe that
>>> elections, as  systems, have no fundamental goal purpose.  (And that
>>>  therefore, no substantial first amendment restrictions are  ultimately
>>> tenable in campaign finance pursuant to the general  philosophy animating
>>> Citizens United)
>>>
>>> But  Joe LaRue, in speaking more precisely, has nevertheless stated that
>  I
>>> am "obviously" "right."   What I'm right about is not  just that only
>>> individual voters have the "purpose" of selecting  the "best", but that
>>> elections themselves do not have the purpose  of selecting the "best
> person".
>>>
>>> But elections most  certainly DO have other purposes!   One is to measure
>>>  the intent of voters after a campaign season allowing them the
> opportunity
>>> to become reasonably well-informed  decision-makers.
>>>
>>> People often wrongly assume that what  might be called "political
>>> philosophy" is academic or a nicety of  some kind, but in fact the
> political
>>> "theory" of the purposes of  elections is really at the heart of many
>>> debates, including  differences over Citizens United.
>>>
>>> Paul Lehto,  J.D.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>  On Fri, Dec 16, 2011 at 11:45 AM, Trevor Potter  <tpotter at capdale.com<mailto:tpotter at capdale.com>>
>>>>  wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> like Paul, I was struck by the  assertion that the "goal" of our
> election
>>>>> system was to  "elect the best person for the job.".
>>>>>
>>>>>  That may have been the goal of the drafters who conceived of  the
>>>>> electoral college, but post G. Washington it has  never had that
> function.
>>>>>
>>>>> I was  recently told by a Chinese Communist Party official that  the
>>>>> "goal" for their political system was the selection of  the best
> possible and
>>>>> most qualified  persons to lead  their country--and that they did not
> believe
>>>>> that our  western  democratic systems had either that goal or those
> results!
>>>>> The official was quite clear that he thought  there was a tension
> between
>>>>> majoritarian voting systems  and the selection of the "best"
> leaders--and
>>>>> China knew  which way they wanted to  resolve that  tension....
>>>>>
>>>>> Trevor  Potter
>>>>>
>>>>> Sent by Good Messaging  (www.good.com<http://www.good.com>)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>  -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From:   Paul Lehto  [mailto:lehto.paul at gmail.com<mailto:lehto.paul at gmail.com>]
>>>>> Sent:   Friday,  December 16, 2011 11:19 AM Eastern Standard Time
>>>>> To:  Joe La Rue
>>>>> Cc:      JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com>; law-election at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>;
>>>>>  BSmith at law.capital.edu<mailto:BSmith at law.capital.edu>
>>>>> Subject:        Re: [EL] FW: An Electoral College  Tie?
>>>>>
>>>>> On Fri, Dec 16, 2011 at 9:05 AM,  Joe La Rue
>>>>>  <joseph.e.larue at gmail.com<mailto:joseph.e.larue at gmail.com>>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>  >
>>>>> > "[...] I think what he said was, *the goal* of a  national *election*
>>>>> > for
>>>>> >  president is *to elect the best person *for the job. The goal
> should
>>>>> > not
>>>>> > be [...]"  (emphasis added)
>>>>> >
>>>>>  >
>>>>> >  "Elections" do not, in and of themselves,  have "goals" other than
> the
>>>>> following: *to objectively  measure the intent of the voters* as
>>>>>  expressed
>>>>> by their ballots, after a process called  campaigning structured such
>>>>> that
>>>>>  voters may become reasonably informed.
>>>>>
>>>>>  Thus, it is a purpose of campaigns and competing media to facilitate
> an
>>>>> informed electorate, because  no rational person  with the best
> interests
>>>>> of
>>>>> the country  in mind would want the electorate to be uninformed when
> they
>>>>> are acting in their sovereign capacity to delegate  their power to
>>>>> representatives, via  election.
>>>>>
>>>>> *Elections, in and of  themselves, do not have a "purpose" or "goal" of
>>>>> electing  the "best" person for the job.  A free people, in order to
> be
>>>>> considered free, must be able to make a mistake and  elect the "worst"
>>>>> person for the job* -- if that is their  free, considered, choice.
>>>>> There's
>>>>> no  alternative consistent with freedom because a populace whose
> choices
>>>>> are
>>>>> either constrained or  "managed" in any way for goals or purposes other
>>>>>  than
>>>>> simply objectively measuring the intent of the voters  is a populace
>>>>> whose
>>>>> freedom is being  constrained.
>>>>>
>>>>> Consequently, while  everyone is free to, for example, support a given
>>>>>  electoral system on the grounds that it "encourages a stable, two
> party
>>>>> system", it is not the purpose or goal of elections  or of liberty to
>>>>> encourage a stable, two party system.  The goal of liberty is liberty.
>>>>> All considerations  named as the "goal" or "purpose" of elections that
>>>>>  are
>>>>> outside the scope of objectively measuring voter  intent after a
> process
>>>>> of
>>>>> reasonably  informing voters via campaigning are collateral or
> ulterior
>>>>> to
>>>>> the actual purpose of  elections:  Measuring voter intent, and thereby
>>>>>  guaranteeing SELF-government by We the  People.
>>>>>
>>>>> A freedom-loving person  reserves the right to themselves to make
>>>>>  mistakes
>>>>> (and to take responsibility as appropriate, for  those mistakes), and
>>>>> respects and tolerates that same  right with all others, including the
>>>>>  right
>>>>> of We the People to elect the "wrong" candidate -  however
>>>>> *subjectively*one measures that  quality.
>>>>>
>>>>> Some of the interesting  discussion in this thread, on all sides,
>>>>>  smuggles
>>>>> into the purpose of elections things that in fact  constrain the
> freedom
>>>>> of
>>>>> We the People  (no matter how good, meritorious and wise those purposes
>>>>>  may
>>>>> seem to be).  Whoever manages or constrains the  sovereign (the voters)
>>>>> is
>>>>> to that  extent usurping the role of the sovereign and putting a thumb
>  on
>>>>> the scales of elections, to some degree or  another.
>>>>>
>>>>> Paul Lehto,  J.D.
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Paul R  Lehto, J.D.
>>>>> P.O. Box 1
>>>>> Ishpeming, MI  49849
>>>>> lehto.paul at gmail.com<mailto:lehto.paul at gmail.com>
>>>>>  906-204-4026<tel:906-204-4026> (cell)
>>>>>
>>>>> <- - - - -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  ->
>>>>> To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by  the IRS,
>>>>> we inform you that, unless specifically indicated  otherwise,
>>>>> any tax advice contained in this communication  (including any
>>>>> attachments) was not intended or written to  be used, and
>>>>> cannot be used, for the purpose of (i)  avoiding tax-related
>>>>> penalties under the Internal Revenue  Code, or (ii)  promoting,
>>>>> marketing, or recommending  to another party any tax-related
>>>>> matter addressed  herein.
>>>>>
>>>>> This message is for the use of  the intended recipient only.  It is
>>>>> from a law firm  and may contain information that is privileged and
>>>>>  confidential.  If you are not the intended recipient any  disclosure,
>>>>> copying, future distribution, or use of this  communication is
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>>>>>  <-->
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>  --
>>> Paul R Lehto, J.D.
>>> P.O. Box 1
>>>  Ishpeming, MI  49849
>>> lehto.paul at gmail.com<mailto:lehto.paul at gmail.com>
>>>  906-204-4026<tel:906-204-4026>  (cell)
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
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>
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>
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