[EL] Attached New Report Plus

[Curtis Gans]

A Report on Turnout, A Change of Address and a bit of Purposeful Shameless
Self-Promotion


1. The report attached includes an update of the turnout figures for the
2001-2010 decade. Previous reports had a interpolated denominator of
eligible citizens based on the rate of change of the age-eligible
population minus non-citizens between the 1990-2000 Censuses. With new
figures for age-eligible population contained in the 2010 Census and new
estimations for age-eligible non-citizens in the 2010 American Community
Survey, it is possible to have an accurate interpolation for age-eligible
citizens between the 2001 and 2010.
This report provides overall and partisan turnout data for mid-term
elections from 1946-2010 and for presidential elections from 1948-2008. It
provides a regional breakdown of partisan turnout for all of these years.
Also included are analysis and commentary on probable 2012 general election
turnout; some factors that may influence results and what the regional
partisan figures indicate about post-2012 partisan advantage.
2. I and the Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE) have
left American University and are operating as an independent non-profit.
All of the Center’s reports, including this one, are available at CSAE’s
new blog: csaelectorate.blogspot.com. The documentation for the attached
report, including: summary charts, graphs, detailed state-by state charts
and methodological notes, is at that blog.
3. The American Library Association chose Voter Turnout: 1788-2009, which
was published last year by CQ Press as one of 23 “Outstanding” reference
works of that year. The online version of this book will be updated with
the new 2001-2010 denominators and turnout results for 2010 and 2011
(Kentucky and Mississippi) early next year and in hardcover including 2012
turnout sometime in 2013. I will be glad to provide data to anyone
conducting research should it be needed prior to those publication dates.

Curtis Gans
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