[EL] Lessons from latest Iowa caucus polls: 6 frontrunners between 17% & 11% / RNC guide to allocation rules

[Rob Richie]

Polls are volatile right now, and the Des Moines Register poll isn't coming
out until Sunday.

But that said,, check out the latest Insider Advantage poll: Paul, Romney
and Gingrich all with 17%, and three other candidates with at least 11%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdv_Iowa_1229.pdf

As the media huffs and puffs about Iowa, keep in mind that if one candidate
gets 21% and another 20%, the "winner" and the "loser" likely will earn the
same number of delegates. That's true in New Hampshire too. And without
instant runoff voting, we won't know if the "winner" in fact might have
been defeated decisively if paired against his or her strongest opponent.

Noe that South Carolina and Florida are the only states in January-March
contests that are sure to award all their delegates on a statewide
winner-take-all basis (without penalty, I might add, despite the 2010 rule
change designed to allow more states to cast meaningful votes). So in those
states, it really will be important to win -- in the other early contests,
winning statewide is mostly just hype.

The RNC has a useful guide to how state parties are allocating delegates
here:
http://global.nationalreview.com/dest/2011/12/23/2012_RNC_Delegate_Summary_32b0d429d50bfaf71e86b156401b5f04.pdf

- Rob

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