[EL] Janice Hahn win and Top Two realities (was ELB News and Commentary 7/13/11)

[Rob Richie]

Rick shared news reports last week that suggested Janice Hahn might lose in
CA-36, but it was highly unlikely, given the clear Democratic lean to the
district. Hahn definitely underperformed this week, which I assume will
concern Democrats nationally, but she still won relatively comfortably,
exactly as she would have under the old rules.

This fact underscores that for all the hyperventilating about Top Two's
impact on who wins elections, that impact almost certainly is going be very
focused -- I would suspect primarily in the most distrnctly one-party
district (often with a majority minority) where two candidates of the same
party get nominated, the more centrist-conservative of the two wins in the
general.

It's instructive to look at outcomes in Washington state, which has used Top
Two in 2008-2010.. We'll be pushing these findings soon with more
information, but here are some highlights:

* Eight of nine Washington State congressional districts are represented by
the party that has the partisan edge in the district (using partisan voting
index based on presidential elections). The one except is District 8, which
has a Democratic lean of +3, but has been represented by moderate
Republicans for years, with the latest incumbent Dave Reichert winning first
in 2004 when the state had a more traditional open primary election system.

* State legislative elections have largely been routine. Note that in 2010
there were 123 state legislative races. Of these races, 26 uncontested,
another 56 had uncontested primaries (only two candidates) and another 16
with only three candidates (meaning one candidate eliminated in the
primary). That leaves 15 races with more than three candidates in the
primary.

As far as inter-party competition carrying into the general election, there
were only two state legislative races where two""prefers Democrats
candidates advanced to general. Both were open seats and both won by the
candidate who had the plurality in the primary.There were  few more
Republican-held seats that went to an R-R contest, with all being won by the
candidate with the plurality in the primary.

Findings from 2008 are very similar. We'll get the full study published this
summer.

Rob Richie, FairVote




On Wed, Jul 13, 2011 at 12:33 AM, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

>
>  Janice Hahn Wins CA-36 Special Election under Top Two<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=20312>
> Posted on July 12, 2011 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=20312> by Rick
> Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> I guess it was not enough<http://rrcc.co.la.ca.us/elect/11070592/rr0592pa.html-ssi>to tell McCain-Feingold to suck
> it <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=19210>.
>  [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D20312&title=Janice%20Hahn%20Wins%20CA-36%20Special%20Election%20under%20Top%20Two&description=>
>


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