[EL] National Popular Vote Passes Crucial Milestone

[Dan Meek]

Even if one or several states were to renege on their agreement to the 
National Popular Vote Compact (NPVC) on or near election day, the 
Compact would still almost certainly accomplish its purposes of ensuring 
that the popular vote winner becomes President and ensuring nationwide 
campaigning.

In most cases, the popular vote winner also wins the Electoral College 
(EC).  In very rare cases, the popular vote winner barely loses the EC 
but will nevertheless earns close to 270 electoral votes.  It is only 
those cases where the outcome is affected by the NPVC.

Even if a few states were to renege on or near election day, the NPVC 
would almost certainly accomplish its purposes.  Assume that 30 
small-to-average size states with a total of 300 electoral votes had 
joined the Compact and that those electoral votes under the present 
system would be split 160-140 in favor of the national popular vote 
_loser_.  The NPVC would reallocate all of those 160 electoral votes to 
the national popular vote winner, thus very likely producing an 
electoral vote landslide for the national popular vote winner.  Assume 
that states with 50 electoral votes renege so that their electoral votes 
can go to the national popular vote _loser_.  The NPVC would still 
reallocate 110 electoral votes from the popular vote loser to the 
popular vote winner, and that is almost certainly enough to ensure the 
Presidency to the popular vote winner.

In essence, the NPVC would grant the national popular vote winner a huge 
bonus of electoral votes (taken away from the national popular vote 
loser), even if some states were to renege.

In addition, the NPVC would still accomplish its purpose of encouraging 
nationwide campaigning aimed at all voters instead of focused largely on 
swing state voters.  After all, the scenario offered is that some states 
would renege on or near election day, after essentially all of the 
campaigning is over.

Dan Meek
dan at meek.net
	10949 S.W. 4th Ave
Portland, OR 97219 	503-293-9021
866-926-9646 fax


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