[EL] equal numbers of VOTERS, rather than residents

[Doug Hess]

What really stood out in this table (and a quick analysis seems to
show this, too), is that the larger the district the higher the
turnout as a percentage of registrations. I.e., if I did the
regression correct (percentage turnout in points regressed on an
indicator that the district is an even district and on the number of
registrations in 10,000s), the percent turnout of those registered
increased by roughly 4 points if the district was even (had a council
race) and it increased by roughly half a point for very 10,000
registrations.

I wasn't sure why that would be, but if the number of registrations is
an indicator for number of citizens in a district, then I guess
registration size is (potentially) a proxy in the model for the
characteristics of the population in the district (e.g., younger,
poorer, etc.). Or a lot of things could be happening (ecological
issues here), but it did stand out.

Number of obs	=      15
F(  2,    12)	=   10.36
Prob > F	=  0.0024
R-squared	=  0.6333
Adj R-squared	=  0.5722
			
	Coef.	Std. Err.      t	P>t					
even	3.95	1.11            3.54	0.004	
reg10k	.473	.178            2.65	0.021	
constant	6.63	2.07            3.20	0.008				
Dependent variable is percentage turnout: [(ballots/registrations) x100]		

-Doug

On Tue, May 17, 2011 at 6:24 PM, David A. Holtzman
<David at holtzmanlaw.com> wrote:
> The City of L.A. may be an unusual case where the voters versus population
> distinction makes a big difference.
>
> L.A.’s districts are drawn by population.
>
> The following is a table of voter registration, ballots cast, and percent
> turnout for L.A.’s City Council Districts in the March 8, 2011, election.
>
> With regard to turnout, bear in mind that only the even numbered seats were
> up for election, and that only some Council Districts, in whole or in part,
> were also voting in school board elections (the school board is elected by a
> different set of districts, and covers more than the City of L.A.)
>
> With regard to registration, please note that I live in CD 11, and my vote
> appears to be much less potent than that of a voter in CD 1.
>
>   - dah
>
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  1       63,127             6,936        10.99
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  2      129,783            18,284        14.09
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  3      131,215            19,523        14.88
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  4      126,281            20,521        16.25
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  5      168,634            23,318        13.83
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  6       77,476             8,944        11.54
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  7       78,720             7,923        10.06
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  8      117,346            19,288        16.44
> COUNCIL DISTRICT  9       74,153             6,004         8.10
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 10       99,207            14,210        14.32
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 11      160,170            22,908        14.30
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 12      138,033            25,523        18.49
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 13       83,507             9,626        11.53
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 14       93,107            18,621        20.00
> COUNCIL DISTRICT 15      103,513            10,634        10.27
>
>
>
> p.s. Note also that this is about city council seats, not any of the
> positions enumerated in the apportionment clause of the 14th amendment,
> which does include some state positions (“the executive and judicial
> officers of a state, or the members of the legislature thereof”).  In
> general, city council elections are not subject to as many federal
> requirements as federal elections are.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On 5/17/2011 6:20 AM, Jon Roland wrote:
>
> The 14th Amendment actually dictates that representation be based not on the
> number of residents, or citizens, but on the number of persons qualified to
> vote (electors), and "number of voters" could be a short way to refer to
> that: number of those qualified to vote, not who actually vote. So drawing
> districts equipopulous for residents rather than for those qualified to vote
> is actually unconstitutional. We have been drawing districts
> unconstitutionally for a long time, albeit the differences are probably
> small in most cases.
>
> -- Jon
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> Constitution Society               http://constitution.org
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> Austin, TX 78757 512/299-5001  jon.roland at constitution.org
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> David A. Holtzman, M.P.H., J.D.
> david at holtzmanlaw.com
>
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