[EL] Herman Cain and Black Democrats; correcting an error

[Richard Winger]

My list of states below has already been corrected by two good North Carolina election-law list readers.  I should have said that in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, independent voters can vote in 2012.

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

--- On Wed, 11/2/11, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Herman Cain and Black Democrats
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>, "DanielLowenstein" <lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 2, 2011, 11:40 AM

Republican presidential primaries in 2012 in which all voters may vote are:  Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois (unless the voter voted in the Democratic primary in 2010 and didn't fill out a change request), Indiana, Michigan (the voter must sign in but the sign-in sheet says nothing about the voter's party preference), Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Ohio (similar to Illinois), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin.  That's 16 states.

Republican presidential primaries in 2012 in which registered independents may vote are:  Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island.  That's 5 more, so there are 21 states in which at least some kinds of non-Republicans may vote.

In the other 19 Republican presidential primary jurisdictions, only registered Republicans can vote:  Arizona,
 California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia.  The eleven states not mentioned in this e-mail have caucuses, not primaries:  Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Washington, Wyoming.

I don't claim infallibility, and if anyone sees an error, I will be grateful to learn whatever it is I have wrong.  

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

--- On Wed, 11/2/11, Lowenstein, Daniel <lowenstein at law.ucla.edu> wrote:

From: Lowenstein, Daniel <lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>
Subject: [EL] Herman Cain and Black Democrats
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 2, 2011, 10:58 AM

            I believe about half the states use one form or another of open primaries.  After the states that use presidential nominating caucuses instead of primaries are subtracted, I’m not sure of the percentage of open-primary states remaining, but it is surely significant.  One aspect of the Republican contest I have not heard discussed is the possibility that black Democrats in open-primary states might vote for Cain in the Republican primary.              I believe
 there is some research showing many African-Americans dislike black Republicans more than they dislike white Republicans.  I don’t know how robust that research is, but surely it is not the case for all or nearly all African-Americans.  For those who lack such antipathy, there is still the question whether they would be motivated enough to vote and, if so, whether they’d overcome a variety of possible reasons for reluctance to vote in a Republican primary.  Still, whatever other effects Cain’s scandal may have, I can imagine it might heighten the motivation of black Democrats who’d like to see the Republicans nominate a black candidate.              I’d
 appreciate the thoughts of others, especially any thoughts supported by research.              By the way, Rasmussen finds Cain leading Romney by 33% - 23% among likely Republican voters in South Carolina in a survey conducted last night, after two days of the scandal and Cain’s somewhat inept responses rattling around.  I am by no means predicting that Cain has sufficient legs to make a serious run at the nomination, but I find the South Carolina result impressive.  
                                                      Best,                                                      Daniel
 Lowenstein                                                    Director                                                    UCLA Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions (CLAFI)                                                    310-825-5148                                                    lowenstein at law.ucla.edu  
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