[EL] Voter ID: Provisional ballots not counted

[Charles Stewart III]

I apologize for my Rick Perry moment on the EAC data.  Cliff is right that 1500 reporting units reported the number of provisional ballots rejected for ID reasons, including 170 of 254 Texas counties.  If we confine ourselves to units that reported both the total number of rejected provisional ballots and the number rejected for ID reasons, we have 169 Texas counties.  Restricting the data this way (i.e., looking only at counties that reported both the number of rejected provisional ballots and the number rejected for the ID reason), 15% of Indiana's rejected provisional ballots can be estimated to have come from lack of ID's, and 11% of Georgia's (and only 1% of Texas's).  Nationwide, 4% of provisional ballots were rejected in 2008 because of lack of ID --- at least in the counties that reported all the data necessary to make the calculation.

Not the best data we could possibly have, but it is the best data we DO have.  I'm looking forward to seeing what 2010 looked like, once those data are released (hopefully, any day now).

===============================================================
Charles Stewart III
Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science
Housemaster of McCormick Hall

Voice:  617.253.3127 / Facsimile:  617.258.8546
e-mail:  cstewart at mit.edu / URL:  http://web.mit.edu/cstewart/www/

Department of Political Science
30 Wadsworth Street
Building E53-449
Cambridge, Massachusetts   02139

From: Maceda, Cliff [mailto:cmaceda_CONTRACTOR at ap.org]
Sent: Wednesday, November 16, 2011 10:00 AM
To: Charles Stewart III; Rausch, Dave; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: RE: [EL] Voter ID: Provisional ballots not counted

While response rates to many parts of the survey were spotty (to put it mildly) in 2008, it would be erroneous to say that no county responded to the question about how many provisionals were rejected for lack of ID.  See responses to question E3d in the county level Excel report for section E:  about 1500 reporting units (or one-third of respondents) did provide a response in 2008.

Cliff Maceda

By the way, this is not to imply that we can extrapolate out those 1500 responses to the rest of the country.  There are myriad problems with the data set from the survey and, even if that were not the case, provisional balloting patterns vary widely both within and across states.

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Charles Stewart III
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 6:58 PM
To: Rausch, Dave; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Voter ID: Provisional ballots not counted

The 2008 and 2010 Election Administration and Voting Survey, administered by the EAC, asked about the number of provisional ballots rejected because of the failure to provide proper identification.  As far as I can tell, no county in the country reported this information in 2008 --- we'll soon see what the story was for 2010.  It would seem, at the very least, that the DOJ would insist that Texas counties report this information as a condition for preclearance...

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu]<mailto:[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu]> On Behalf Of Rausch, Dave
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 3:09 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] Voter ID: Provisional ballots not counted

If/when the US Department of Justice clears the Texas voter ID law, voters who fail to bring appropriate identification to the polling place will have six days to prove their identity to the county clerk. It might be interesting to know how many provisional ballots in each county weren't finalized with an ID. Do other states with voter ID provide this information at the county-level?

Basically, I'm interested in knowing how many voters in each county cast a provisional ballot but failed to provide an appropriate identification document in the six-day window. I checked with the Texas Secretary of State and the staffer may not have understood my question. She indicated that this data will not be provided to the Secretary's office, but that I could contact each county and file a Open Records request if necessary.

Dave Rausch

Dave Rausch, Ph.D.
Teel Bivins Professor of Political Science
Faculty Athletics Representative
Dept. of Political Science and Criminal Justice
West Texas A&M University
Canyon, TX 79016-0001
(806) 651-2423    Fax: (806) 651-3610

My webpage:
                http://www.wtamu.edu/~jrausch



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