[EL] AZ Redistricting Spin

[Jennifer Steen]

Hi folks,

Given the heat surrounding coverage of AZ's draft congressional map I thought some of you might be interested in the view from Tempe.

I have been following Arizona redistricting closely, attending commission meetings, interviewing activists, coding reams of public hearing transcripts, drawing my own lines with Maptitude, etc., and I am having a hard time getting my brain around the spin of the news coverage this week.  I'm flummoxed by the headline included in Rick's roundup (below).  The map only "favors" Democrats in that it gives them the possibility of maybe, with a crop of exceptional candidates and a strong Democratic wind at their backs, winning 5 of the 9 seats in Arizona.  More likely they'll hold 3 or 4 and the GOP will hold 5 or 6.  The draft map creates two districts safe for Democrats (both majority-Latino), four districts safe for Republicans, and three potentially competitive districts.  That's four safe GOP seats folks.  And yet the map "favors" Democrats?  I'm just not seeing it.  Stuart Rothenberg said, ""It really helps Democrats and screws Republicans. . . . This was just a wholesale redrawing of the state." Well, yes, it was a wholesale redrawing of the state because that's exactly what the AZ constitution requires.  But it "screws" Republicans?  Really?  Perhaps it inconveniences a couple of incumbents who now have to decide which district to run in.  But "screws Republicans?"  No way.   This kind of language mischaracterizes the map and undermines the legitimacy of the AIRC.  Does the map have issues?  Yes!  Indeed, at today's meeting members of the public have raised many reasonable concerns about the draft maps (others have just quoted the more hyperbolic coverage).   Have the commissioners themselves made choices that undermined their credibility? Yes!  But the notion that this map belongs in the pantheon of pro-Democratic gerrymanders strains credulity.

Jennifer A. Steen
 School of Government, Politics and Global Studies
Arizona State University


From: Rick Hasen [mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu]
Sent: Wednesday, October 05, 2011 8:28 AM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 10/5/11
"Redistricting draft map in Arizona favors Democrats"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=23840>
Posted on October 4, 2011 2:09 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=23840> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The Fix reports<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/redistricting-draft-map-in-arizona-favors-democrats/2011/10/04/gIQAI33YLL_blog.html>.
[cid:image001.png at 01CC837C.D9BBF920]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D23840&title=%E2%80%9CRedistricting%20draft%20map%20in%20Arizona%20favors%20Democrats%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in citizen commissions<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=7>, redistricting<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6> | Comments Off
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