[EL] How electoral rules matter -- Americans Elect /USA elections vs. Ireland

Fri Oct 28 13:08:46 PDT 2011

Folks,

Rick Hasen in his blog today mentioned Americans Elect ( the group seeking
to get ballot access for a candidate in all 50 states, with that candidate
chosen by delegates next spring and the fact that to date its delegates seem
more left-leaning than right -- with a subtext being whether that might have
an impact on what kind of candidate is chosen and where such a candidate
might "split" votes.

Contrast this kind of reaction to more voter choice than what happens in
Ireland, which uses the choice voting form of proportional voting for its
legislative elections and instant runoff voting for presidential election.
Ireland just held an election with seven candidates. Ballots are being
counted by hand today, and we have a projected winner. With first count
results in from 36 of the 43 constituencies, Michael Higgins was on 40.5 per
cent, followed by Gallagher  (27.3 per cent), McGuinness (13.4 per cent),
Norris( 6.6 per cent), Mitchell (6.4 per cent) and Davis and Scallon (both
at 2.9 per cent).

Below is a link profile of the race from the UK's Guardian. Note that the
winner Michael Higgins pulled away from a big field to secure more than 40%
of first choices and all other candidates accept that he will be the
majority winner once the tally is finished tomorrow morning. The candidate
finishing second in first choices, who quite recently led the field in
polls, is quoted in the story linked to below as saying: "He will have my
full support as president and I sincerely thank him for a positive campaign.
His slogan stated that he would be a president to be proud of and I believe
he will be that president."

Note that this was a 7-candidate race, and early on the field was very
split. But no one talked about "spoilers" and "split votes" as we obsess
over in our plurality voting elections when more than two candidates run.

Higgins vote grew in a fascinating way during the campaign, reflecting the
fact that his party is not one of the two biggest parties. He stood out as a
candidate in debates and other venues, and went from 18% of first choices to
ultimately securing more than 40% of first choices. I've pasted in those
polls numbers at the end.

Ireland has used IRV to elect its president for decades. Its presidency
isn't as powerful as ours, but is seen as an important enough to draw about
50% turnout. A notable winner in Ireland in the 1990s was Mary Robinson, the
nation's first woman president. She won on the second count --  she was
initially in second place in first choices, but one when matched one-on-one
with her strongest opponent.

- Rob Richie

###########
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/28/michael-d-higgins-ireland-president?newsfeed=true

 Michael D Higgins to become Ireland's next president

Poet, peace campaigner and football club president on course to win at least
40% of first preference vote for Irish Labour party...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011

Opinion polls Date Source Polling Agency
Davis<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Davis_(activist)>
Gallagher <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Se%C3%A1n_Gallagher>
Higgins<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Higgins>
McGuinness <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_McGuinness>
Mitchell<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Mitchell>
Norris <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Norris_(politician)>
Scallon<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Rosemary_Scallon> 25
September 2011 *The Sunday Business
Post<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sunday_Business_Post>
*[180]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-179>
RED
C 13% 11% 18% 16% 13% *21%* 6% 6 October 2011 *The Irish
Times<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Irish_Times>
*[181]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-180>
Ipsos
MRBI 12% 20% *23%* 19% 9% 11% 6% 6 October 2011 Paddy
Power<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Power>
[182]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-181>
RED
C 9% 21% *25%* 16% 10% 14% 5% 16 October 2011 *The Sunday Business
Post<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sunday_Business_Post>
*[183]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-182>
RED
C 4% *39%* 27% 13% 8% 7% 2% 16 October 2011 *The Sunday
Independent<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunday_Independent_(Ireland)>
*[184]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-183>
Quantum
Research 4% 29% *36%* 13% 6% 10% 2% 22 October 2011 *The Sunday Business
Post <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sunday_Business_Post>*[185]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-184>
RED
C 2% *40%* 26% 13% 6% 10% 3% 23 October 2011 *The Irish
Times<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Irish_Times>
*[186]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#cite_note-185>
Ipsos
MRBI 3% *40%* 25% 15% 6% 8% 3%

-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"

Rob Richie
Executive Director

FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616

Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a gift
to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
10132.) Thank you!
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20111028/39fc6c4c/attachment.html>