[EL] McDonald study, birthdate distribution in real voter list

[Bev Harris]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but isn't the question whether a specific person,
Robert Smith, has the same birthdate as a different Robert Smith? The question
is not whether any two people in a pool share a birthday.

The number of shared birthdays among all people on the list works out to about
1:10,000 (in a large list), which can readily be seen just by counting the
shared birthdates on the list. (On a small list, the presence of twins will
provide an extra sprinkle of same birthdates)

The chances that one specific individual shares the same birthdate as another
specific individual is the question. The rest of the people in the room really
don't matter.

> Put differently, the question isn't whether two people on a list share a
> single date of birth, but whether _no_ two people in a large pool share
> a birthday.


Bev Harris
Founder - Black Box Voting
http://www.blackboxvoting.org

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