[EL] Check out Could Pennsylvania Republicans end the electoral college as we know

Thu Sep 15 07:17:34 PDT 2011

Strange, because this works:  
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper/florida.pdf

Dan Meek
dan at meek.net
	10949 S.W. 4th Ave
Portland, OR 97219 	503-293-9021
866-926-9646 fax

On 9/15/2011 7:11 AM, Josiah Neeley wrote:

Link doesn't seem to be working.
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From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Dan Meek [dan at meek.net]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2011 10:06 AM
To: 'law-election at uci.edu'
Subject: Re: [EL] Check out Could Pennsylvania Republicans end  the     electoral college as we know

The phenomenon that more "compact" districts favor Republicans is explained at:
Jowei Chen&  Jonathan Rodden, TOBLER’S LAW, URBANIZATION, AND ELECTORAL BIAS: WHY COMPACT, CONTIGUOUS DISTRICTS ARE BAD FOR THE DEMOCRATS (November 2009) (Society for Political Methodology, Washington University
(http://polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper/ﬂorida.pdf).

Dan Meek
dan at meek.net<mailto:dan at meek.net>
         10949 S.W. 4th Ave
Portland, OR 97219      503-293-9021
866-926-9646 fax

On 9/15/2011 6:48 AM, Bonin, Adam C. wrote:

Here's a sortable chart for the 2000, 2004, and 2008 results by congressional district: http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

In the closely divided 2000 election, Bush had 8 districts in which he had 70%+ of the vote.  Gore had 43.

Put another way: in districts in which the winner had 55% or less of the vote, 99 were won by Bush and 68 by Gore.  Yes, obviously, if you change the goal from winner-take-all-per-state to a CD race, folks campaign differently, but you're starting from a terrain on which GOP candidates are inherently favored and will be more so in certain states given the current gerrymandering process.

-----Original Message-----
From: Gaddie, Ronald K. [mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2011 9:34 AM
To: Josiah Neeley; Bonin, Adam C.; 'JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com>'; 'rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>'; 'law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>'
Subject: RE: [EL] Check out Could Pennsylvania Republicans end the electoral college as we know

What he means is that the Democratic districts are more homogeneous in terms of voters.  But, this is also counterbalanced by the fact that core Democratic districts are usually lower-turnout constituencies.  Jim Campbell called this the 'Cheap Seat' phenomenon in his book of the same name.

Ronald Keith Gaddie
Professor of Political Science
Editor, Social Science Quarterly
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989
Fax 405-325-0718
E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org

________________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>  [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] on behalf of Josiah Neeley [JNeeley at bopplaw.com<mailto:JNeeley at bopplaw.com>]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2011 8:27 AM
To: Bonin, Adam C.; 'JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com>'; 'rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>'; 'law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>'
Subject: Re: [EL] Check out Could Pennsylvania Republicans end  the     electoral       college as we know

I'm not sure I'm following the logic here. If congressional districts were measured in geographic size (i.e. x square miles per district) then the guy would have a point. But they're not. Congressional districts are all have approximately the same number of people in them (there is some difference from state to state, but that's irrelevant to the proposed change). How is being more concentrated supposed to make a district more partisan?

________________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>  [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] on behalf of Bonin, Adam C. [ABonin at cozen.com<mailto:ABonin at cozen.com>]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2011 8:34 AM
To: 'JBoppjr at aol.com<mailto:JBoppjr at aol.com>'; 'rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>'; 'law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>'
Subject: Re: [EL] Check out Could Pennsylvania Republicans end the      electoral       college as we know

Put simply, awarding electoral votes by congressional district would be a disaster for Democrats. Democratic voters tend to be much more concentrated in urban areas while Republican voters are typically more spread out. That means that the average blue seat is much bluer than the average red seat is red, which in turn means that there are more Republican-leaning districts than Democratic-inclined CDs.

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