[EL] deaths after voting by mail
Michael McDonald
mmcdon at gmu.edu
Fri Aug 3 11:30:24 PDT 2012
I'm just a ballot, and I'm only a ballot, and I'm sitting in an envelope
Well it's a long, long way to the election office
So many pitfalls that I might not get off them
But I hope and I pray that someday
I will make election day
but today I am still just a ballot.
Congratulations ballot! You've become a vote!
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Mailing address:
(o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
(f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
mmcdon at gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
-----Original Message-----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of
Lowenstein, Daniel
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 2:09 PM
To: Ken Mayer; 'Steve Kolbert'; 'Doug Hess'
Cc: 'Election Law'
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
I am reminded of G.K. Chesterton, who observed that some so-called
democrats (small "d," of course) took pride in believing that participation
in government should not be determined by the accident of birth, but went
further by insisting that participation should not be determined by the
accident of death.
Best,
Daniel H. Lowenstein
Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions
(CLAFI)
UCLA Law School
405 Hilgard
Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
310-825-5148
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Ken Mayer
[kmayer at polisci.wisc.edu]
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 9:59 AM
To: 'Steve Kolbert'; 'Doug Hess'
Cc: 'Election Law'
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
Short answer: not enough votes to worry about, there's nothing that could be
done if there were, and even if something could be done, it wouldn't be
right. By any reasonable definition, a vote is a vote when it is cast, no
matter what happens to the voter subsequently.
In Oregon, according to the Public Health division, about 2,500-2,900 people
die in a typical
month<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics
/FinalData/Documents/10/deathmo.pdf>, with about 98% of those deaths
occurring in the voting age
population<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStati
stics/FinalData/Documents/10/deathage.pdf>. Turnout as a percentage of VAP
in 2008 was 63% according to Michael McDonald's United States Election
Project<http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html>. If we assume that
deaths over a month are evenly distributed, and that votes are cast roughly
evenly over the month, that gives an estimated approximate upper limit
(back of the envelope calculation; the actual numbers will be slightly
different, but not by enough to worry about) of the number of votes
potentially cast by people who died before election day as:
2,900*.98*.63*.5 = 895 votes
The key quantity here isn't this number, but the margin of victory for the
winning candidate among these voters. An election would have to be pretty
close for this to make a difference, but let's say these voters went 60%-40%
for a candidate in a two candidate race. That 20% margin reduces this 895
votes to 179 votes. That could make a difference in a really tight race,
but there aren't many statewide races decided by this margin.
But it doesn't really make any difference, because for these votes to be
rejected, you'd have to hang on to every vote until you got confirmation
that the voter had actually died, which is not workable.
This isn't different than a voter who casts a ballot on election day, but
who dies (or moves to another state) before the results are certified.
Ken Mayer
Kenneth R. Mayer
Professor, Department of Political Science Affiliate Faculty, La Follette
School of Public Affairs University of Wisconsin - Madison
110 North Hall/1050 Bascom Mall
Madison, WI 53706
(608) 263-2286 (voice)/ (608) 265-2663 (fax)
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Steve
Kolbert
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 11:09 AM
To: Doug Hess
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
You can find a discussion of the applicable Virginia law in Op. Va. Att'y
Gen. 10-104 (Oct. 26, 2010), available at
http://www.oag.state.va.us/Opinions%20and%20Legal%20Resources/OPINIONS/2010o
pns/10-104-Lind.pdf
SUMMARY:
When a general registrar knows an absentee voter has died prior to election
day, but after having voted by absentee ballot, the registrar must cancel
that voter's registration, and the absentee ballot should not be counted;
but that in those circumstances in which absentee ballots are cast prior to
election day in a manner by which the absentee ballot no longer can be set
aside, the general registrar who knows of the voter's death shall cancel
that voter's registration, but election officials are not otherwise required
to perform the impossible task of not counting the deceased voter's ballot.
Steve Kolbert
(202) 422-2588
steve.kolbert at gmail.com<mailto:steve.kolbert at gmail.com>
@Pronounce_the_T
On Aug 3, 2012 11:54 AM, "Doug Hess"
<douglasrhess at gmail.com<mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com>> wrote:
Let's say you vote by mail and then kick the bucket before ballots are
counted or before election day. Assuming election officials notice this
about you and spot your ballot, do laws or regulations address counting that
ballot? I assume that if you were eligible to vote when you did, that dieing
before ballots are counted doesn't matter.
If an election is entirely by mail and you can get ballots 30 days in
advance (is that standard?), just how many adults go six feet under in that
period. I'm wondering--for Friday amusement partially--if the number or
percentage is enough that the dead can determine an outcome?
Doug
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