[EL] deaths after voting by mail
Dan Meek
dan at meek.net
Fri Aug 3 12:36:12 PDT 2012
Also, I would think that most voters who die during the vote-by-mail
period are probably very ill or in the hospital or otherwise so
debilitated that they would not be voting anyway. Patients on life
support are not likely to insist on opening and completing their
ballots. And it is a felony for anyone else to do so.
Dan Meek
503-293-9021 dan at meek.net <mailto:dan at meek.net> 866-926-9646 fax
On 8/3/2012 12:21 PM, Dan Meek wrote:
Deaths among vote-by-mail voters in Oregon are far less significant than
postulated by Ken Mayer.
First, ballots are mailed to voters, by law, within a window of 14 to 18
days prior to the election date, not 30 days in advance. So voters
receive them from 17-12 days before the election date.
Second, ballots are not returned ratably over that period. They arrive
more slowly, with the median ballot returned usually on the 3rd day
prior to election day. So the impact would be about 1/10 of his
estimate. In other words, most folks who die during the vote-by-mail
period will not have voted before death, anyway, assuming that they die
at an even rate over that 12-17 day period.
Dan Meek
503-293-9021 dan at meek.net <mailto:dan at meek.net> 866-926-9646 fax
On 8/3/2012 11:36 AM, Scarberry, Mark wrote:
Or incurring of debts or creation of effectively-nonrepealable
entitlement programs that they will have to pay for.
*From:*law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of
*Doug Hess
*Sent:* Friday, August 03, 2012 11:28 AM
*To:* Lowenstein, Daniel
*Cc:* Election Law
*Subject:* Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
Well, we can go one step further: in cost-benefit analysis there are
also debates about what future citizens may value (not the same as
voting, but for a Friday we'll count expressions of economic preferences
as "voice"). So, if you destroy something that cannot be restored (e.g.,
extinction of an animal, bulldozing a pristine forest, or putting a town
on a natural landmark) what is the cost to future generations locked in
by your decision? Or just say nuts to them? :)
Douglas R. Hess, PhD
Washington, DC
202-955-5869
douglasrhess at gmail.com <mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com>
The information contained in this email is confidential and may contain
proprietary information. It is meant solely for the intended
recipient(s). Access to this email by anyone else is unauthorized. If
you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying,
distribution or any action taken or omitted in reliance on this is
prohibited and may be unlawful.
On Fri, Aug 3, 2012 at 2:09 PM, Lowenstein, Daniel
<lowenstein at law.ucla.edu <mailto:lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>> wrote:
I am reminded of G.K. Chesterton, who observed that some
so-called democrats (small "d," of course) took pride in believing that
participation in government should not be determined by the accident of
birth, but went further by insisting that participation should not be
determined by the accident of death.
Best,
Daniel H. Lowenstein
Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free
Institutions (CLAFI)
UCLA Law School
405 Hilgard
Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
310-825-5148 <tel:310-825-5148>
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>
[law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] On Behalf Of Ken
Mayer [kmayer at polisci.wisc.edu <mailto:kmayer at polisci.wisc.edu>]
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 9:59 AM
To: 'Steve Kolbert'; 'Doug Hess'
Cc: 'Election Law'
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
Short answer: not enough votes to worry about, there's nothing that
could be done if there were, and even if something could be done, it
wouldn't be right. By any reasonable definition, a vote is a vote when
it is cast, no matter what happens to the voter subsequently.
In Oregon, according to the Public Health division, about 2,500-2,900
people die in a typical
month<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/FinalData/Documents/10/deathmo.pdf>,
with about 98% of those deaths occurring in the voting age
population<http://public.health.oregon.gov/BirthDeathCertificates/VitalStatistics/FinalData/Documents/10/deathage.pdf>.
Turnout as a percentage of VAP in 2008 was 63% according to Michael
McDonald's United States Election
Project<http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html>. If we assume that
deaths over a month are evenly distributed, and that votes are cast
roughly evenly over the month, that gives an estimated approximate upper
limit (back of the envelope calculation; the actual numbers will be
slightly different, but not by enough to worry about) of the number of
votes potentially cast by people who died before election day as:
2,900*.98*.63*.5 = 895 votes
The key quantity here isn't this number, but the margin of victory for
the winning candidate among these voters. An election would have to be
pretty close for this to make a difference, but let's say these voters
went 60%-40% for a candidate in a two candidate race. That 20% margin
reduces this 895 votes to 179 votes. That could make a difference in a
really tight race, but there aren't many statewide races decided by this
margin.
But it doesn't really make any difference, because for these votes to be
rejected, you'd have to hang on to every vote until you got
confirmation that the voter had actually died, which is not workable.
This isn't different than a voter who casts a ballot on election day,
but who dies (or moves to another state) before the results are certified.
Ken Mayer
Kenneth R. Mayer
Professor, Department of Political Science
Affiliate Faculty, La Follette School of Public Affairs
University of Wisconsin - Madison
110 North Hall/1050 Bascom Mall
Madison, WI 53706
(608) 263-2286 (voice)/ (608) 265-2663 (fax)
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] On Behalf Of
Steve Kolbert
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 11:09 AM
To: Doug Hess
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] deaths after voting by mail
You can find a discussion of the applicable Virginia law in Op. Va.
Att'y Gen. 10-104 (Oct. 26, 2010), available at
http://www.oag.state.va.us/Opinions%20and%20Legal%20Resources/OPINIONS/2010opns/10-104-Lind.pdf
SUMMARY:
When a general registrar knows an absentee voter has died prior to
election day, but after having voted by absentee ballot, the registrar
must cancel that voter's registration, and the absentee ballot should
not be counted; but that in those circumstances in which absentee
ballots are cast prior to election day in a manner by which the absentee
ballot no longer can be set aside, the general registrar who knows of
the voter's death shall cancel that voter's registration, but election
officials are not otherwise required to perform the impossible task of
not counting the deceased voter's ballot.
Steve Kolbert
(202) 422-2588 <tel:%28202%29%20422-2588>
steve.kolbert at gmail.com
<mailto:steve.kolbert at gmail.com><mailto:steve.kolbert at gmail.com
<mailto:steve.kolbert at gmail.com>>
@Pronounce_the_T
On Aug 3, 2012 11:54 AM, "Doug Hess" <douglasrhess at gmail.com
<mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com><mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com
<mailto:douglasrhess at gmail.com>>> wrote:
Let's say you vote by mail and then kick the bucket before ballots are
counted or before election day. Assuming election officials notice this
about you and spot your ballot, do laws or regulations address counting
that ballot? I assume that if you were eligible to vote when you did,
that dieing before ballots are counted doesn't matter.
If an election is entirely by mail and you can get ballots 30 days in
advance (is that standard?), just how many adults go six feet under in
that period. I'm wondering--for Friday amusement partially--if the
number or percentage is enough that the dead can determine an outcome?
Doug
_______________________________________________
Law-election mailing list
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu><mailto:Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
<mailto:Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>>
http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
_______________________________________________
Law-election mailing list
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20120803/385307a8/attachment.html>
View list directory