[EL] Un(conventional) wisdom and convention bumps

[David A. Schultz]

Take a look at the Sunday Tampa Tribune where I am quoted about the myth of convention bump.

http://www2.tbo.com/news/republican-national-convention/2012/aug/12/party-poopers-conventions-rarely-woo-voters-in-hos-ar-461696/

There is little evidence that placement of a national convention in a state bumps or flips a state.  In addition to the data of mine referenced in the article I have more that shows that since WW  II, in 18/32 conventions for the two main parties, the party holding a convention is a specific state does worse in the popular in that state compared to four years earlier.  Thus, no bump in terms of flipping a state or in terms of necessarily increasing the percentage of popular vote.

I have cool data here and need to organize it.


David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
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