[EL] 2008 to 2012 what happened to MO and IN?

[Thomas J. Cares]

I don't think anyone could deny that Obama has lost a significant chunk of
his 2008 popularity. Those states are not in play for him anymore.

However, I do wonder, if the nation has developed an insurmountable
imbalance between loyal democratic voters who will turn out for
presidential elections, but not necessarily midterms (or even necessarily
vote downballot in presidential elections) and loyal republican voters,
similar to what we probably have in California, which prevented Republicans
from winning a single statewide election.

This might cause a situation where, while Democrats may (for 2 or more
decades) never be able to win any of the states won by McCain - presently
worth 180 EC votes, Republicans may never be able to win any of the states
won by John Kerry - worth 246 EC votes.

Because of this, I figure in this election, Obama simply would not lose as
long as he wins just one of Virginia, Ohio, or Florida, whereas Romney
can't win without all three.

But beyond 2012, if Democrats get to start at 246, and Republicans at 180,
GOP White Houses, going into the future, may be few and far between (this
may also be exasperated by Republicans bloodying themselves in their
primaries far more than Democrats).


Thomas Cares

On Tue, Aug 28, 2012 at 2:37 PM, Doug Hess <douglasrhess at gmail.com> wrote:

> I know this is not a psephology list, but I wonder why MO and IN are
> viewed by many to be strongly Romney states. Granted, IN going for
> Obama in 2008 was surprising (at least to me, and I suspect others).
> And MO in 2008 was won by McCain by the skin of his teeth. But why are
> both states considered out of Obama's reach now (see Nate Silver's
> summaries of polls and some predictions in the link)?
>
>
> http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/aug-25-an-above-average-likely-voter-gap-for-romney/#more-33647
>
> Doug
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