[EL] Iowa Turnout

Wed Jan 4 06:06:34 PST 2012

Just to add a few points to Mike's helpful analysis.

First, the media is hyping "winning" as if it really mattered in any
meaningful way involving delegates, which it doesn't. Looking at the hard
vote total numbers, note that Romney in 2008 won 29,949 votes  -- which was
seen as a crushing disappointment because his 25.2% of the caucus vote was
well behind Huckabee's 34.4%.

With arguably a weaker field and more sweeping GOP establishment backing,
Romney "surged" to 30,015 votes -- e.g, a "whopping" growth of 66 votes.
Because of the slight uptick in turnout, that means he won a lower
percentage than in 2008 -- 24.6%. But this time the opposition vote was
more fractured, so Romney "won." Without instant runoff voting (something
Iowa Republicans easily could do, as this is a straw poll on paper ballots,
and the instant runoff tally could be done this morning), we won't know how
he would have fared if matched one-on-one against Santorum, but based on
second choice polling, I suspect Santorum would have won.

Ron Paul is the only other candidate who was on both the 2008 and 2012 Iowa
ballot. Unlike Romney, Paul did see his vote surge -- more than doubling
from 11,817 to 26,219. He won 48% of the vote among caucus voters under 30,
as opposed to Santorum taking 23% and Romney and13%. Paul also beat Romney
by more than two-to-one among independents, voters with an income under
$50,000 and first-time caucus attendees. Seems questionable to me that such
energy for Paul will translate into support for another Republican who wins
the nomination, given his views on foreign policy are an outlier within his
party.

I suspect former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, the likely Libertarian
Party nominee, is looking at these results for Paul with real interest.

Finally, on turnout, note that a PPP poll over the weekend found that about
one in six likely GOP caucus-goers had voted in the Democratic caucuses in
2008. Without a competitive caucus on the Democratic side, that decision
was easier for them to make -- among "strong" Republicans, turnout in fact
seems down from 2008. (Note that in 2008, the Democratic caucus turnout has
about 100,000 more voters (close to double) as the GOP caucus turnout had
last night.)

Rob Richie

On Wed, Jan 4, 2012 at 3:21 AM, Michael McDonald <mmcdon at gmu.edu> wrote:

> I posted the turnout numbers here:
>
> http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012P.html
>
> There are a total of 122,255 votes in the Republican caucus according to
> the
> Google data table provided in partnership with the Iowa Republican Party
> and
> the Democrats report "more than 25,000" people turned out for their
> caucuses.
>
> The Google site reports the Cain and Roemer votes, too. Cain's 54 votes and
> Roemer's 31 votes are more that the 8 vote victory margin. One of the
> things
> that is perplexing me is that there are 252 votes unaccounted for when all
> the candidate votes are tallied...Write-ins? Uncommitted?
>
> My take is that participation in the Republican caucus kept pace with the
> population growth of the state over the past four years. Furthermore, as a
> likely consequence of an uncontested Democratic nomination, the entrance
> polls report that this year independents comprised 23% of caucusgoers while
> four years ago they constituted 11%. Thus, there appears to be a small dip
> in enthusiasm among Republicans compared to 2008. Perhaps the Tea Party
> enthusiasm from 2010 has run its course, so Republicans should not count on
> a replication of 2010 conditions in 2012. Still, overall levels of
> participation remain elevated, so if there is a retrenchment in turnout
> from
> the high 2008 levels, there is no indication of a wholesale collapse. Of
> course, Iowa is only one state with a caucus system. The upcoming primaries
> may provide better indicators and we have a lot of territory to cover
> before
> November.
>
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, George Mason University
> Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
>
>                             Mailing address:
> (o) 703-993-4191             George Mason University
> (f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
> mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
> http://elections.gmu.edu     Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
>
>
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