[EL] Tight Primary Results--Do they Discredit the National Popular Vote Plan?

Wed Jan 4 10:18:55 PST 2012

If there was a result in the popular vote within the margin of error 
wouldn't that mean all ballots would need to be re-counted in all states? 
Simply re-counting one close state would ignore the possibility of errors in 
other states that could impact the total in an election that was that close.
Larry

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Lowenstein, Daniel" <lowenstein at law.ucla.edu>
To: "Jamin Raskin" <raskin at wcl.american.edu>; <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; 
<law-election at uci.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:09 AM
Subject: Re: [EL] Tight Primary Results--Do they Discredit the National 
Popular Vote Plan?

       My post was a response to Rick's comment, not to the Iowa results.

       The odds against a result within what Rick calls the margin of error 
in either a state that is decisive in the electoral college or in a national 
popular vote are both extremely great.  But the consequences of the latter 
would be far more troublesome than the former proved to be.

             Best,

             Daniel H. Lowenstein
             Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions 
(CLAFI)
             UCLA Law School
             405 Hilgard
             Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
             310-825-5148

________________________________
From: Jamin Raskin [raskin at wcl.american.edu]
Sent: Wednesday, January 04, 2012 4:15 AM
To: Lowenstein, Daniel; rhasen at law.uci.edu; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Tight Primary Results--Do they Discredit the National 
Popular Vote Plan?

There are at least three problems with this post: 1. The National Popular 
Vote plan does not touch the presidential primary process.    2. The Florida 
2000 problem is an artifact of the current way that states use the electoral 
college system in which corruption and dysfunction in a single state can 
control the outcome of the whole election.  Since Vice-President Gore had 
received more than a half-million votes more than Bush nationally in 2000, 
it would have made no difference under NPV rules whether it was Bush or Gore 
who finished a  vote or two ahead in Florida voting (much less the Supreme 
Court!).  Gore would have won.  3.  All the political-science studies I know 
of show that ties and close results are far more likely to occur in 
elections with smaller pools of voters, which is why they happen with some 
frequency in school board elections and small-state caucuses but almost 
never in even the closest of national elections.  Thus, it seems odd to use 
last night's results as an occasion to attack the NPV plan.
       yours,   Jamie

----- Original Message -----
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu 
<law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>
To: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; law-election at uci.edu 
<law-election at uci.edu>
Sent: Wed Jan 04 02:10:25 2012
Subject: [EL] Tight Results

       At least we don't have to worry about Florida x 50, as would be 
possible if there were a national popular vote system in effect.

             Best,

             Daniel H. Lowenstein
             Director, Center for the Liberal Arts and Free Institutions 
(CLAFI)
             UCLA Law School
             405 Hilgard
             Los Angeles, California 90095-1476
             310-825-5148

________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu 
[law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick Hasen 
[rhasen at law.uci.edu]
Sent: Tuesday, January 03, 2012 9:45 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/4/12

The Lesson from Tonight’s Iowa Results for Election 
Law<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=27367>
Posted on January 3, 2012 9:40 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=27367> by 
Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Elections can sometimes be close.  Very very close (as in 5 votes close as I 
write this post).  So close that the margin of error in counting the votes 
can exceed the margin of victory.  Fortunately tonight’s results won’t lead 
to a recount (for how the non-binding caucuses work, see 
here<http://theweek.com/article/index/222942/the-idiosyncratic-iowa-caucus-rules-a-guide>); 
whether Romney or Santorum wins is more about bragging rights than anything 
else.

But this could happen in a presidential election again, in a state that 
matters.  And we haven’t done nearly enough to fix the problems in our 
elections that became apparent in the 2000 Florida fiasco.  As I will 
argue<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=22990> in great detail soon, we are not 
prepared for the next election meltdown.

[cid:part1.01070400.08000704 at law.uci.edu]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D27367&title=The%20Lesson%20from%20Tonight%E2%80%99s%20Iowa%20Results%20for%20Election%20Law&description=>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | 
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