[EL] EL Iowa Turnout

[Curtis Gans]

Turnout in the caucuses was 5 percent of eligible Iowa citizens.

Closeness of race does not necessarily increase turnout. My favorite
example of that was the NY senatorial race between Alphonse D'Amato and
Chuck Schumer. It was at the time one of the closest, most expensive and
nastiest campaign in New York history. It also had the lowest turnout for
any statewide race in New York history and turnout was lower than the very
one-sided race that re-elected George Pataki governor. A similar situation
happened the same year in Ohio where a nasty, expensive and tightly
contested race for governor had a near record low turnout and was lower
than a one-sided race for senator.

Diversity doesn't necessarily propel turnout upward in either primaries or
general elections. Turnout grew in the 2008 Democratic primaries after the
field was winnowed to two.

Turnout tends to increase when people feel there's something important to
decide and when they aren't totally driven from the polls by campaign
conduct,

With regard to the last question raised, one of the striking results of the
Iowa caucuses was the continuation of a pattern in which Romney has not
made the sale to the breadth of the GOP constituency. He hovers around 25
percent in national polls as well as  Iowa results. He's likely to do
better in his home turf of New Hampshire but maybe less well in South
Carolina and Nevada, Both by rule and by current shape of the race, it
won't be decided until at least April. But, in Romney's favor he has the
resources to stay in the race and will likely to continue to polls as the
person with the best chance of beating Obama.
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