[EL] Comments on Doug Chapin's Blog Post

[Curtis Gans]

There is an alternative to what Chapin has chosen to put in his blog as the
choices for numerators and denominators for assessing turnout. I use a
denominator that was pioneered by Walter Dean Burnham -- which is neither
VAP nor VEP. It is citizen-eligible population -- age-eligible minus
non-citizens interpolated between Censuses. I believe it is a better
denominator for four basic reasons: 1. It removes the largest distortion in
the age-eligible (VAP) figures. 2. It is the only denominator for which
there is comparable data going bask to 1860. 3. VEP includes only some of
the elements that affect the denominator (non-citizens and felons). It does
not include Americans living outside of the United States who are not
included as age-eligible but can vote, people who are naturalized in the
year of the election, for some elections overcounts and undercounts and
movers during the year of the election. 4. Beyond non-citizens, there is
only limited historical data for many of the factors  -- one can find data
on convicted felons back to the 19teens, but there is no compilation of law
as to which of those felons or ex-felons could by law vote. Undercounts and
overcounts have only been assayed since 1942. It is possible to accurately
count those citizen living outside the United States who are in the
military and in government positions and allocate them to states. It is
virtually impossible for the others to be so estimated and allocated.
Naturalization figures and movers are only available after the election
year. For all of these reasons, I believe the figure I use and many others
-- age-eligible minus non-citizens is a better and more historically
comparable measure. It is the denominator used in my book -- Voter Turnout
1788-2009, published late 2010 by CQ Press, which was juried and which was
selected as one of the 23 "outstanding reference books of 2010 by the
American Library Association.

One last point, total ballots cast would, as Chapin suggests, be a more
accurate numerator for true turnout performance. It is a figure I collect.
But it is not available historically for many states beyond the past few
elections. Which is why I and most others use presidential vote for
presidential years and highest turnout race (including aggregate U.S. House
vote in states with no statewide top of the ticket races in any given year)
for mid-terms.
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