[EL] "US Senate Testimony on 'Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine State'"
Justin Levitt
levittj at lls.edu
Mon Jan 30 14:17:48 PST 2012
"Take Broward County for example...the early voting was at 14,922 on
Friday October 24; 11,616 on Saturday, October 25; 11,198 on Sunday, October
26; and 18,586 on Monday, October 27. There were fewer in-person early
voters during this weekend in Broward. If there was a "Pew to the Polls"
GOTV effort, it does not appear to be particularly effective in Broward."
Though I absolutely agree with Michael on the desirability of more information, I'm not sure I agree with the specific conclusion here. Mobilizing for Sunday voting in Broward in 2008 only looks less effective if you assume all polling places open the same periods, with equal participation by all voters. Actually, neither is true.
First, the Florida law in effect in 2008 required 8 hours of early voting per weekday, and 8 hours in the aggregate over the weekend. So on Friday, there was 8 hours of early voting. And on Monday, there was 8 hours of early voting. And on Saturday and Sunday -- combined -- there were 8 hours of early voting. So the right comparison isn't Friday to Saturday to Sunday to Monday; it's Friday to Saturday/Sunday to Monday: 14,922 to 22,814 to 18,586. (Or, if you assume equal split in Saturday and Sunday voting hours, half of Friday to Saturday to Sunday to half of Monday.) Either way, that's a big bump for the weekend.
Also, Michael's chosen the first weekend of early voting. The second weekend -- the weekend closest to the November 4 election date, when more voters are engaged -- is equally significant, with larger numbers overall. On Friday, Oct. 31, 27,610 voters went to the polls in Broward. On Saturday and Sunday, 32,146 did. That's another bump for the weekend.
Second, the bump's even more pronounced when you look at the voting by race. Not all citizens went to the polls in equal numbers on the weekend. On the first weekend, about 7100 of those weekend voters were white, but about 10,800 were black. On the second weekend, about 9950 were white, but about 13,200 were black. And Sunday in particular also shows these effects -- asI've testified <http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-9-8LevittTestimony.pdf>, African-American voters represented 31% of the voters on the final Sunday, compared to 13% of the 2008 voters overall. Latino voters represented a similar disproportion (22% of the voters on the final Sunday, 11% overall). And those disproportions were similar in 2010, with a whole lot less interest in the top of the ticket.
So, at least by my look at the data, I'd say that if there was a "Pews to the Polls" GOTV effort -- particularly among churchgoing minority communities -- it_was_ particularly effective in Broward. Or at least, more effective than the norm. As Michael says, it doesn't indicate whether those voters could or would vote at different times. But the data show pretty clearly to me that they_wanted_ to vote on the final Sunday ... and that counties now can't offer them that choice.
Justin
On 1/30/2012 10:38 AM, Michael McDonald wrote:
> As those on the list should know, I am no fan of restrictive voting laws in
> any form, if they affect Democrats or Republicans. However, I need to place
> into context Rick's "key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
> in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election" (created by
> Michael Herron and Dan Smith for their Senate testimony).
>
> Below are the number of persons voting in-person early by day during
> Florida's early voting period in 2008. The two important dates are Sunday
> October 26, 2008 and Sunday November 2, 2008. In Herron and Smith's key
> plot, the percentage of minorities voting on these Sunday's jumps up
> considerably. What is also important to note is that the number of persons
> voting early drops considerably on these days. It is not too hard to figure
> out what is going on here. Only twelve counties report early voting numbers
> on 10/26 and eleven counties report early voting numbers on 11/2. There are
> some heavy density minority communities like Broward and Dade among those
> reporting on Sundays. In other words, early polling places were closed on
> Sundays in the predominantly white areas.
>
> I've heard pundits claiming that the significant increases in early voting
> are a results of a "Pew to the Polls" church-led GOVT effort on Sundays.
> That does not square with my recollection of Florida's early voting in 2008.
> The Obama campaign begged local leaders to stop saying that an early vote
> would not be counted since early voting was a part of their voter
> mobilization strategy. I am willing to believe that some churches did indeed
> engage in GOTV efforts, but I do not believe that the key plot is indicative
> of efficacy of such efforts. We have case selection bias to contend with
> first.
>
> Now, given these numbers there is a *stronger* argument that the new Florida
> law restricting in-person early voting on the Sunday before the election to
> be in discriminatory since Sunday early voting is being implemented in
> primarily urban counties. Some may argue there is a Bush v Gore violation,
> but all Florida counties may implement in-person early voting as it is now.
> They may choose not to do so for cost reasons, or perhaps a more
> discriminatory purpose to prevent Democrats or minorities from voting (it is
> clear in Florida's statistics that Democrats favor in-person early voting
> over the Republican preferred absentee mail balloting). Understanding why
> some counties choose not to have Sunday early voting is a first step to
> addressing the real issue here.
>
> I think we need to understand why some Supervisors of Elections are not
> opening Sunday polling locations to better understand why this dynamic
> exists. And, to fully understand the effect of restricting Sunday early
> voting, we need to know if these Sunday early voters will vote on another
> day. Take Broward County for example...the early voting was at 14,922 on
> Friday October 24; 11,616 on Saturday, October 25; 11,198 on Sunday, October
> 26; and 18,586 on Monday, October 27. There were fewer in-person early
> voters during this weekend in Broward. If there was a "Pew to the Polls"
> GOTV effort, it does not appear to be particularly effective in Broward. I'd
> like to know more about the number of open polling places and their hours to
> understand this dynamic -- it could be that the decline is primarily driven
> by limited access to early polling locations on the weekend. Still, these
> numbers suggest to me that the effects of limiting Sunday early voting would
> not be as dramatic on minorities -- but would still discriminatory -- as
> they may appear in Herron and Smith's key plot. Again, let me be clear in
> case anyone tries to misquote me out of context: there is a strong case that
> limiting Sunday early voting is discriminatory.
>
> Early Voting by Day
> Date of EarlyVote
> Count
> 10/20/2008
> 157,912
> 10/21/2008
> 161,083
> 10/22/2008
> 167,922
> 10/23/2008
> 166,236
> 10/24/2008
> 183,179
> 10/25/2008
> 133,534
> 10/26/2008 (Sunday)
> 53,094
> 10/27/2008
> 201,479
> 10/28/2008
> 215,911
> 10/29/2008
> 272,507
> 10/30/2008
> 281,838
> 10/31/2008
> 298,692
> 11/1/2008
> 268,926
> 11/2/2008
> 76,013 (Sunday)
>
>
>
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, George Mason University
> Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
>
> Mailing address:
> (o) 703-993-4191 George Mason University
> (f) 703-993-1399 Dept. of Public and International Affairs
> mmcdon at gmu.edu 4400 University Drive - 3F4
> http://elections.gmu.edu Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
>
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
> Hasen
> Sent: Sunday, January 29, 2012 6:56 PM
> To: law-election at uci.edu
> Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/29/12
>
> An Incomplete NPR Report on Voter ID
> Posted on January 29, 2012 3:52 pm by Rick Hasen
> NPR reports "Why New Photo ID Laws Mean Some Won't Vote." While this is an
> interesting report on who doesn't have voter id and on how the data skew, it
> is really incomplete. This is what we need to know to understand how new
> i.d. requirements may affect upcoming elections:
> 1. how many people don't have i.d. now and how do those data skew?
> 2. of those people who don't have i.d.
> a. how many want but cannot get the i.d. needed to vote (either because the
> documents needed for the i.d. are not (easily) available or affordable, for
> religious reasons, or some other reason)?; and
> b. of those people, how many would vote, but for the lack of a voter i.d.?
> and
> c. of those people lacking i.d. who want to vote, how many may vote without
> i.d., either through an absentee ballot, with an affidavit or witness
> statement, or through some other means?
> In short, knowing how many people don't have i.d. now is the beginning, not
> the end, of the inquiry about how voter i.d. laws will affect the outcome of
> elections. I have yet to see good data on these final questions. The best
> analyses I have seen so far on this question are Pitts and Neumann and
> Erikson and Minnite. Both show we are a long way from being able to answer
> these questions, though there is reason to believe the numbers of people
> actually deterred by voter i.d. requirements likely are not enormous.
> Much more on this in The Voting Wars.
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars, voter id | Comments Off
> More from Texas Redistricting Blog
> Posted on January 29, 2012 3:37 pm by Rick Hasen
> See DOJ on the Meaning of the SCOTUS Opinion and a Press Roundup.
>
> Posted in Department of Justice, redistricting, Voting Rights Act | Comments
> Off
> "In Nonstop Whirlwind of Campaigns, Twitter Is a Critical Tool"
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:30 am by Rick Hasen
> NYT reports.
>
> Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off
> "Virgin Islands Lawyer Sues U.S. Government Over Right to Vote"
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:26 am by Rick Hasen
> Links to complaint, etc. here. More from the Virgin Islands Daily News.
>
> Posted in voting | Comments Off
> "US Senate Testimony on 'Protecting the Right to Vote in the Sunshine
> State'"
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:23 am by Rick Hasen
> Dan Smith:
> Here's a copy of my written testimony with Prof. Michael Herron, which I
> presented on January 27, 2012 in Tampa, Florida, before the United States
> Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil
> Rights and Human Rights, "New State Voting Laws II: Protecting the Right to
> Vote in the Sunshine State."
> Here are the slides I projected during my 7 minute oral testimony.
> And here's the link to the key plot showing by day the racial/ethnic early
> in-person voting in Florida in the 2008 General Election.
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off
> "Super PACs are overwhelming the political process"
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:22 am by Rick Hasen
> This editorial appears in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
>
> Posted in campaign finance | Comments Off
> "Charlie White's freedom, political future on the line"
> Posted on January 29, 2012 11:20 am by Rick Hasen
> Indiana Secretary of State goes on trial on voter fraud charges Monday.
>
> Posted in SOS White | Comments Off
> Roundup of CA Supreme Court Redistricting Decision Stories
> Posted on January 28, 2012 3:36 pm by Rick Hasen
> Here. My earlier coverage is here.
>
> Posted in citizen commissions, redistricting | Comments Off
> "Texas voter ID case: Meet the three-judge panel"
> Posted on January 28, 2012 3:34 pm by Rick Hasen
> Not a great draw for the Lone Star State.
>
> Posted in voter id, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off
> "Florida's election law draws scrutiny; A U.S. Senate committee raised
> questions over Florida's new election law at a field hearing in Tampa"
> Posted on January 27, 2012 9:08 pm by Rick Hasen
> Miami Herald: "Testimony centered on the most controversial changes:
> reducing early voting from 14 days to eight, from 96 hours to a minimum of
> 48, and ending it on the Saturday before the election; requiring third-party
> groups to register and face fines if they turn in voter registration forms
> after 48 hours; and requiring voters to cast provisional ballots if they
> moved from another county since they last voted if they did not update their
> addresses."
>
> Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off
> "Censoring of Tweets Sets Off #Outrage"
> Posted on January 27, 2012 9:04 pm by Rick Hasen
> NYT: "But this week, in a sort of coming-of-age moment, Twitter announced
> that upon request, it would block certain messages in countries where they
> were deemed illegal. The move immediately prompted outcry, argument and even
> calls for a boycott from some users. "
>
> Posted in social media and social protests | Comments Off
--
Justin Levitt
Associate Professor of Law
Loyola Law School | Los Angeles
919 Albany St.
Los Angeles, CA 90015
213-736-7417
justin.levitt at lls.edu
ssrn.com/author=698321
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