[EL] competitive primaries are common in Calif. leg races when no incumbent

[Larry Levine]

There were not just two Democrats in the AD 46 Primary; there were five. I
live in the district; my office is in the district. As a political
consultant, I observed this race very closely. I knew some of the candidates
personally, knew their consultants, and knew some of the people involved in
the independent expenditures. I think in the old traditional closed
Democratic Primary system we would have had the same winner. It wouldn't
have mattered who was the second place finishing Democrat but the likelihood
is it would have been close between the actual third and fourth place
finishers, who would have been the second and third place finishers in a
closed Dem primary. This Primary is not a very good example of anything
because there were too many influencing circumstances. 

Larry

 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Richard
Winger
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2012 9:54 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] competitive primaries are common in Calif. leg races when no
incumbent

 


Rick Hasen's Election Law Blog tonight talks about how close the primary
between two Democrats was, in the Assembly (lower house of the Cal.
legislature), 46th district in which Rick happens to live.  But there was no
incumbent.  It is not rare in California, or in the U.S. generally, to have
a competitive primary for a congressional or legislative seat when there is
no incumbent.

It seems to me, even if there were no Prop. 14 top-two open primary in
California, the race in that district's Democratic primary would have been
close, given no incumbent.  Perhaps the same two Democrats would have run in
the old partisan system.

In 2010 in California, under the old partisan system, there were some very
close legislative primaries.  For Democrats, just for the Assembly, there
were close races in these districts:  3, 7, 9, 20, 21.  For Republicans,
there were close races in these Assembly districts:  25, 59,70.

Also in 2010, the Democratic primary for State Senate, 40th district, saw
these results:  Juan Vargas 24,282 votes; Mary Salas 24,260 votes, a
difference of only 22 votes.

Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

 

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