[EL] Vargas, his opponent & campaign information

[Douglas Johnson]

The headline repeats my own personal pet peeve about some campaign finance
rhetoric: Vargas did not pick his opponent, the voters did. Vargas provided
information to voters, and some of them may have reacted favorably to that
information. Note that the headline on the article ("Vargas helps pick
opponent in race for Congress") is much more accurate than the headline sent
to the blog ("Vargas picks opponent in race for Congress"), though in Rick's
defense I suspect the newspaper changed its headline after Rick sent the
email.

 

Did Vargas's information swing voters? The only evidence is from the same
political consultants who sent the mail. I personally have my doubts: in a
statewide election where Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to
turn out, the best-known Republican candidate managed to get 20% of the vote
in a district where Republican party registration is 21% and
third-party/decline to state voters make up 29% of registration (the other
two Republicans combined for another 9.3% of the vote -- remarkably similar
to how the third and fourth Democrats on the ballot combined for 9.1%). Mr.
Winger's information about Crimmins is important, but so is the list of
endorsements
<http://www.smartvoter.org/2012/06/05/ca/state/vote/crimmins_m/endorse.html>
for Crimmins. Mr. Winger is also correct that Crimmins only spent $5,000,
but he was the biggest Republican spender -- none of the other Republican
candidates spent enough to have to report anything to the FEC. And my
understanding (I could be wrong on this) is that only Mr. Crimmins has
appeared as a candidate in past Congressional elections, which would have
made his name more recognizable than that of Ms. Gionis and Mr. Portley.
Crimmins is also a veteran -- a HUGE plus (especially among Republican
voters) in military-friendly San Diego. And voters did not need to rely on
the Vargas mail to know that -- Crimmins's ballot designation was
"Teacher/Military Officer," while Portley was "Computer Scientist" and
party-endorsed Xanthi Gionis was the bizarre
"Educator/Businesswoman/Author." Even more bizarre, party-endorsed Gionis
has no individuals endorsing here on her endorsements page
<http://votexanthigionis.com/why-xanthi/endorsements/>  other than a City
Councilman from Imperial Beach. So did the Vargas mail sway voters? Perhaps,
but I'm not going to take the word of the author of the mail on that. Did it
cost Ducheney 2nd place? Almost certainly not. (She trailed Republican party
registration by 8%).

 

But moving on to my bigger point: I believe that the rhetoric around this
issue is often misleading (such as saying someone is "buying" a seat), and,
more substantively, such rhetoric distracts us from addressing the real
issue: voters who either lack access to useful information about the
individual candidates, or who choose to not invest the time to learn about
the candidates.

 

Campaign reforms that only limit the money spent on elections only
exacerbate the issue: candidate mail and tv ads are just about the least
accurate source of information on candidates out there, but at least it's
something. In my view banning it, severely restricting it, or taking actions
that shift the money into "independent" expenditures, do nothing to address
the fundamental problem that the voters are casting ballots without good
information on the candidates.

 

Do I have the answer? No. But I hope to see the campaign "finance"
discussion refocus on the voters' lack of salient information, the resulting
ease with which things like candidate mail can sway them, and how can we
address that, rather than focus on exacerbating the lack-of-information
problem.

 

- Doug

 

Douglas Johnson

Fellow

Rose Institute of State and Local Government

m 310-200-2058

o 909-621-8159

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2012 10:24 AM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 6/9/12


 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=35470> "Vargas picks opponent in race for
Congress" 


Posted on  <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=35470> June 8, 2012 6:25 pm by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Must-read San Diego Union-Tribune article
<http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jun/08/vargas-picks-opponent-in-race-fo
r-congress/?print&page=all>  on gaming the top-two primary: "Democratic
state Sen. Juan Vargas used some of the $630,000 he spent running for
Congress in the primary election on an unusual but ultimately fruitful cause
- direct mailers promoting a Republican rival, his preferred opponent in
November. Vargas finished with 45 percent of the vote, according to
unofficial results of Tuesday's primary. Republican Michael Crimmins had 20
percent and former Democratic legislator Denise Moreno Ducheny had 15
percent."

UPDATE:
<http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/06/09/california-democrat-in-san-diego-co
ngressional-race-funded-weak-opponent-so-as-to-knock-out-his-strongest-oppon
ent/>  Richard Winger provides some important context.

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