[EL] so far, in 2012, the more open the primary, the worse Romney does

[Richard Winger]

California newspapers are forever telling their readers that when primaries are "open" (which they never define) "moderates" are advantaged.  But closed primaries are controlled by "extremists."

Actually, so far, the 2012 Republican presidential primaries suggest the opposite.  If I call Romney a "moderate" and if I call Santorum and Gingrich "extremists", I don't completely mean it, but it is useful shorthand.

So, so far, the only completely closed Republican presidential primary has been Florida, which Romney easily won.

The only semi-closed primary has been New Hampshire, where Democrat registrants can't choose a Republican ballot, but independent voters may.  Romney easily carried New Hampshire.

There have been 3 open primaries.  Michigan was extremely close but Romney carried it.  Santorum easily won Missouri, and Gingrich easily won South Carolina.

I know that only five states doesn't make a strong statistical case.  We can keep watching.  March 6 will give us lots more data.

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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