[EL] Do the Math: The Increasing Probability of a Brokered Republican National Convention

[David A. Schultz]

My latest blog should be of interest to many.
Here is the link and the text of the blog below.
Do the Math: The Increasing Probability of a Brokered Republican
National Convention
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/2012/03/do-math-increasing-probability-of.html

After Super Tuesday Mitt Romney told Santorum that the delegate numbers
were against him and that it was unlikely that the latter could win
enough delegates to reach the 1144 magic number to clinch the
nomination.  Truth be told, it looks like none of the GOP candidates
except Romney can reach this number, and even his chances are
questionable.  All this  raises the increasing probabilities that there
will be no candidate with enough delegates after the primaries are done
in June to clinch the nomination.  Brokered convention here we come!
Let’s do some math.
There are a total of 2,286 delegates to the August 27-30, 2012
Republican National Convention (RNC) in Tampa, Florida.  For a candidate
to win the nomination he must secure 1,144 delegates.
Through super Tuesday here is the delegate count:
Romney     421
Santorum    181
Gingrich    107
Paul          47
Huntsmann      02
So far a total of 758 delegates have actually been awarded.  This is
33.1% of the total delegates. Another 129 delegates have been selected
in caucus states such as Maine and Minnesota but have not yet been
awarded to anyone. This means there are 1399 delegates or 61.2% are yet
to be awarded.
 Of the 129 caucus delegates not officially awarded, potentially
Santorum and Paul have done well at winning many of the delegates in
these caucus states, suggesting that their numbers looking better than
they do.  In fact even Romney may have more delegates than his official
number indicate if his portion of the 129 is considered.  But for
purposes here, ignore these 129 delegates since they probably will not
be awarded until after the primary season is over and they generally are
cast for the winner at the national convention, assuming there is one. 
If no candidate has already reached the 1,144 number, these 129
delegates will become really important. 
Of those delegates actually awarded (758) Romney has won 55.5%, Santorum
has won 23.8%, Gingrich 14%, and Paul 6.2%.
For Romney to win the nomination, he needs to win 723 additional
delegates out of the 1399 remaining.  This means he has to win 51.6% of
the remaining delegates.
For Santorum to win the nomination, he needs to win 963 additional
delegates our of the 1399 remaining.  This means he has to win 68.8% of
the remaining delegates.
For Gingrich to win the nomination, he needs to win 1037 additional
delegates our of the 1399 remaining.  This means he has to win 74.1% of
the remaining delegates.
For Paul to win the nomination, he needs to win 1097 additional
delegates our of the 1399 remaining.  This means he has to win 78.4% of
the remaining delegates.
The math suggests that Romney merely need to perform in the future at
slightly below or about the same level of delegate collection to win the
nomination.  If this were occur, he would have enough delegates around
June 5, when California (172), Montana (26), New Jersey (50), New Mexico
(23), and South Dakota (28) hold their primaries.  Assuming no major
changes in political fortunes, it will  be three more months at a
minimum for the Republican nomination to conclude with a nominee.
But Romney’s math is fuzzy.  March 10 brings Kansas, March 13 Alabama
and Mississippi, and then Missouri has a March 17 contest.  There is a
total of 142 delegates here.  Romney will not do well here, winning
perhaps 40% of the delegates (57).  There are other southern
states*Texas, Louisiana,  Arkansas, and Kentucky, with a total of 272
delegates where he may also substantially underperform  and perhaps win
only 40% of the delegates (109).  If this were the case, Romney would
have 587 delegates, and would then have to win 557 out of the other
1,127 remaining delegates (49.4%).  This is not impossible for Romney,
but it suggests that he has to continue to perform well in these other
states if he wants to clinch the nomination by the end of the primary
season in June.
If Romney were to perform worse than these projections then he chances
of securing the necessary delegates to clinch goes down.  For example,
if he does worse than expected in the next two weeks and his momentum is
slowed then it may make it harder for him to clinch in advance.  Better
than expected performances in the next couple of weeks can increase the
chances of securing the necessary delegates.
Bottom line: The math is against Santorum at this time and Romney merely
needs to continue at his current pace to clinch the nomination in June. 
Romney is definitely in the driver’s seat but the math suggests a
precarious seat.


David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
School of Business
570 Asbury Street
Suite 308
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858 (voice)
651.523.3098 (fax)
http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
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