[EL] Is Minority Registration Really Declining?

[Michael McDonald]

Here's a link to my HuffPo critique of the Washington Post story asserting
minority registration rates are declining:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/is-minority-voter-registr_b
_1497813.html

They are not, if anything Hispanics are slightly up from 2006 and Blacks are
significantly up. My issue is with the CPS -- the source for the story -- is
that the CPS includes persons who do not answer the voting registration
questions as not being voted or registered. These non-responses should more
appropriately be treated as missing data and excluded from the rate
calculations. This insight resolves for me other puzzling issues that I've
recently had with the CPS, such as apparently declining CPS turnout rates
when they are most certainly increasing. 

Those familiar with my voter turnout work will appreciate this:
non-respondents to the CPS voting and registration questions are increasing,
CPS turnout and registration rates are not declining. But, as an add-on,
unfortunately the corrected CPS turnout rates demonstrate significant vote
over-report bias, on par with the ANES.

Btw, Chris Achen and Jon Krosnik independently turned me on to the CPS
non-response issue. I am co-author with Jon and colleagues on a manuscript
that delves more deeply into over-report bias on the CPS and other surveys.

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

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