[EL] Is Minority Registration Really Declining?

Wed May 9 08:46:41 PDT 2012

This economy is based on housing defaults and not weakness in job markets or industries.  I would seek input from an economist on this particular 
economy's impact on mobility as compared with previous economic downturns.  We also have an aging population that has different impacts on 
demographic groups with the well off moving to personal retirement homes in the south and southwest, poorer persons moving into the homes of family 
members or family members moving into the homes of older family members. I would also look at the construct or occupancy rates for independent living,
assisted living and full time care facilities. You may also want to look at disability claims as well as early retirement and where people might have decided 
to go if they did not stay in an area.  Unemployment or under employment rates as well as enrollment in job training programs, colleges and universities 
will also have an impact on registration figures.  Registration is not at the top of people's list of things to do if shelter, food, clothing, commuting, seeking 
employment or all of the above are major challenges.  Registration has to go where people are and where they are may be completely different from 
where they were in 2008,  2004, or 2000.  Survey's on routine activities that people engage in may be more helpful in gaging registration, willingness to 
register and how to effect registration for the Fall 2012.

> 2. The article mentions residential mobility as a possible source for a perceived decline in registration. Of course, people in the US move a lot (the data on residential mobility really are amazing) and length of time at residence is one of the strongest predictors of voting. However, residential mobility tends to decrease when the economy is weak not increase. People often move for work. Thus, when unemployment is high, moving declines (a bit). Still, if home foreclosure problems are large enough (I just don't know) it would be an issue. 

The Departments of Labor, Commerce, and Health and Human Services should have statistics that may be helpful. There is also the heightened interest 
during the 2008 primary and caucasus that increased voter registration among young and a spectrum of racial demographic groups early in the election 
year.  I would expect that the 2012 pattern for registration may reset to what occurred in 2004 or 2000.  The 2012 registration pattern should have a surge 
post conventions, but if that does not happen--then it is time to worry. The focus from now through the summer should be to remind people that they need 
to register where they will be living in November 2012 or plan to vote absentee. 

> 
> 3. The non-response problem in the CPS does need additional research as Michael points out. However, perhaps imputation would be a better alternative to deletion? It's a sticky problem. I'd be excited to see any research on this, including information on who does not respond and why. Other supplements to the CPS have a pretty good response rate, so why are there so many non-responses to the November Supplement (especially considering how short it is)? 
> 

Non-responsiveness in survey's is not new, but  it has been a growing problem in recent years.  You may want to talk with groups that do a lot of survey's 
(Pew comes to mind)  to find out what is normal responsiveness.  I agree that non-responsive should not be categorized as anything other than non-
responsive.  I would also look  at the questions to be sure they did not skew responses.

> I wonder if there is evidence regarding why people don't respond that supports the long history of treating non-responses as non-registered and non-voters. Treating them as non-voters does seem to provide data that lines up, nationally at least, with exit polls on turnout for race (if I recall correctly...). 
> 

I agree.  The respondent may not know the answer, but they may also not mind giving an answer.  However, calling a household repeatedly to speak with 
multiple members of a household on a survey may not to yield better data.  Getting a good representative sample of the target population; getting the 
correct survey and then respondents' replies is a better course to take for accuracy.

> 4. Another rarely discussed issue is that the reporting in the CPS is by proxy. That is to say, one respondent in the household responds for everybody else (i.e., the household respondent will be asked about the voting and registration status of their spouse, adult children, etc. in the household). I know one paper looked into this, but this aspect might need more examination also. 
> 
> 5. Keep in mind that the CPS does not include populations that are in "institutional" housing (military barracks, nursing homes, college dormitories, shelters, etc.) and does not include the homeless. So, when matching what it shows to the number of ballots actually cast, etc., there is that issue. 
> 
> Anyway....more could be said. The CPS remains a great resource, but needs to be used carefully. And a revamping of the CPS November Supplement is overdue. 
> 
> I wonder if some large polling firms ask about voting in November? I don't mean campaign polling, but the firms that ask 100,000 people each year about what mustard they use, how often they eat out or go see a movie, etc. These firms already ask a bunch of other questions about health, etc. in addition to their consumer questions. Perhaps voter turnout would interest them? It could get a lot of play.
> 
> -Douglas R. Hess, PhD
> douglasrhess at gmail.com 
>  
> 
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Michael McDonald <mmcdon at gmu.edu>
> To: law-election at uci.edu
> Cc: 
> Date: Mon, 07 May 2012 17:48:15 -0400
> Subject: Re: [EL] Is Minority Registration Really Declining?
> Here's a link to my HuffPo critique of the Washington Post story asserting
> minority registration rates are declining:
> 
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/is-minority-voter-registr_b
> _1497813.html
> 
> They are not, if anything Hispanics are slightly up from 2006 and Blacks are
> significantly up. My issue is with the CPS -- the source for the story -- is
> that the CPS includes persons who do not answer the voting registration
> questions as not being voted or registered. These non-responses should more
> appropriately be treated as missing data and excluded from the rate
> calculations. This insight resolves for me other puzzling issues that I've
> recently had with the CPS, such as apparently declining CPS turnout rates
> when they are most certainly increasing.
> 
> Those familiar with my voter turnout work will appreciate this:
> non-respondents to the CPS voting and registration questions are increasing,
> CPS turnout and registration rates are not declining. But, as an add-on,
> unfortunately the corrected CPS turnout rates demonstrate significant vote
> over-report bias, on par with the ANES.
> 
> Btw, Chris Achen and Jon Krosnik independently turned me on to the CPS
> non-response issue. I am co-author with Jon and colleagues on a manuscript
> that delves more deeply into over-report bias on the CPS and other surveys.
> 
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, George Mason University
> Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
> 
>                             Mailing address:
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> (f) 703-993-1399             Dept. of Public and International Affairs
> mmcdon at gmu.edu               4400 University Drive - 3F4
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