[EL] Hope folks can check out.... Monopoly Politics 2012: Analysis & Partisan Numbers of Every U.S. House Race
Rob Richie
rr at fairvote.org
Fri Oct 12 12:16:07 PDT 2012
Folks,
We've been around for a couple decades now and done a lot of things that I
think have been important.
But I believe this collection of reports and the associated flash map just
may be the most important thing we've ever done. It tells a powerful story,
I believe -- one that may be challenging to how some people see
congressional elections, but one that I believe is supported by the numbers
we share.
So hope you can check it out and would love to hear from people with any
questions or suggestions they may have.
Rob Richie
##########
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=PAf2PtF8KiF%2ByeG%2BAE7Twwr%2FBgxX85hF>
*
*
*See USA map and links to the report's analyses online at
http://www.FairVotingUS.Com<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=zYCQGTkinICMt69L6nYJkwr%2FBgxX85hF>
*.
*See this news release linked
here<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=hzrLYfiiHxGvkMvcxhiTdwr%2FBgxX85hF>
.*
*
*
For Immediate Release
October 12, 2012
Contact: Rob Richie, Executive Director, FairVote, rr [at] fairvote.org,
301-270-4616
Lizz Hudler, Media Relations, at Hudler [at] fairvote.org, 301-270-4616
*Monopoly Politics 2012: District-by-District Guide to the Partisan
Landscape of the 2012 Elections
**Report has State Maps, District-by-District Numbers & Extensive
Analysisthat Project Partisan Outcomes and Challenge Conventional
Wisdom about the
Impact of Gerrymandering and Campaign Finance*
Washington, D.C. -- FairVote, a nonpartisan think tank that analyzes
elections and proposes electoral reforms, has issued its new* **Monopoly
Politics 2012 *report on U.S. House elections. The report demonstrates the
growing partisan rigidity of voters in U.S. House elections with a detailed
state-by-state, district-by-district review of this year's congressional
races and the 2010 elections. It includes information on the presidential
election results in every 2012 district, how each district's partisanship
has changed since 2010 and the likely outcome of the Congressional
elections next month.
*Monopoly Politics 2012 *underscores the structural edge that Republican
candidates have in today's electoral landscape. If Barack Obama and Mitt
Romney were to tie in the popular vote this November, for example, Romney
would likely win 242 congressional districts compared to Obama's 193
districts. Republicans therefore start with an advantage in 49 more
districts, and Democrats cannot win control of the House without at least
25 of its U.S. House nominees winning in districts that would be carried by
Mitt Romney in a close presidential race. In districts with a distinct
partisan advantage (with a lean of least 54% to 46% for one party),
Republicans have an advantage in 195 districts compared to Democrats having
an advantage in 166 districts.
*Monopoly Politics 2012* provides insight into the root cause of the lack
of competition in House races and the decline of the center in Congress.
This root cause is not any dramatic shifts in district partisanship, but
rather the combination of winner-take-all voting rules and reduced
ticket-splitting by voters. The overwhelming majority of districts are won
by the party that has a partisan edge in those districts -- far more than
in recent decades -- and most of the decline in centrists is due to a drop
in the number of candidates able to win in districts that lean toward the
other party. Just as with the steadily shrinking number of swing states in
presidential elections over the past two decades (as demonstrated
powerfully in FairVote's *Presidential Election
Inequality*<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=xFjgAPUMAtMpvR37vDPlMIG4iGA4w3V9>reports),
imbalanced partisanship is a natural consequence of where people
live and the increasing partisan rigidity of the American electorate.
Partisan gerrymandering only affects the number of competitive
congressional districts on the margins.
"What* Monopoly Politics 2012* demonstrates beyond any doubt is that the
United States is divided into a growing number of 'spectator districts' and
declining number of 'battleground districts,' explained FairVote's director
Rob Richie. "But most analysts miss the key point, one that should be
overwhelmingly obvious from similar trends in presidential elections. In
this era of partisan polarization, the core culprit for our broken
congressional elections and polarized Congress is winner-take-all voting
rules. Anyone who suggests that the decline in competitive congressional
districts and centrist lawmakers is primarily due to redistricting or
campaign spending simply isn't understanding the numbers."
To present this fact visually, FairVote's new report features an interactive
map<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=ewPYIxJ9huNwPpXE7p1wJAr%2FBgxX85hF>that
allows users to see the partisan leanings of every district in the
nation -- both nationally and in each state -- and click through a series
of ways to understand this year's House elections. The visual tells a
powerful story: very few areas of the nation fall within a competitive
partisan spectrum.
Although undesrcoring how redistricting reform would only marginally affect
partisan competition, FairVote's interactive map does showcase the many
outlandish districts that mar the current redistricting process -- and our
analyses show how mapmakers did act to shield potentially vulnerable
incumbents.
Richie commented: "Although we dismiss the simplistic notion that
gerrymandering or campaign spending is the root cause of our nation's
monopoly politics, we remain highly critical of the redistricting process.
For us, it's time to liberate voters from winner-take-all boxes and allow
them to define their own representation with fair voting -- relying on
constitutional, candidate-based, American forms of proportional
representation in multi-seat 'super districts'."
Released along with *Monopoly Politics 2012* is Fair Voting
2012<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=3tsTneoIopVUdT3ObIoX5Ar%2FBgxX85hF>,
a report grounded in FairVote having drawn multi-seat plans for Congress in
every state. The report illustrates a dramatic affect on representation by
partisan preference and racial identity of voters. By toggling back and
forth between congressional districts on our interactive
map<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=TxmdPX2Ir3LwPNU2f7Sd5Qr%2FBgxX85hF>,
users can compare congressional elections as they are and as they could be
with our fair voting plans.
One key finding is that by using a fair voting system in districts with
between three and five representatives (with such "super districts" being
allowed by the Constitution, used in many congressional elections earlier
in our history and used today in many state and local elections), every
voter in every state (at least those with three representatives or more)
would have a meaningful vote in every election and have representatives
from the left, center and right of that district -- including having at
least one Democrat and one Republican represent every super district. The
number of voters with at least one House representative who is a woman
would likely triple from 17% to more than 50%.
Below are key analyses from* Monopoly Politics
2012<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=aVY2sBVPr9JYeckAVtKErgr%2FBgxX85hF>
* along with state-by-state profiles of every district and analyses from Fair
Voting 2012<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=VZAzq4L7VkU9SKL6itUg0oG4iGA4w3V9>.
For more information, contact FairVote at (301) 270-4616 or email Rob
Richie at rr [at] fairvote.org or Lizz Hudler at hudler [at] fairvote.org.
*Monopoly Politics 2012 Analysis*
- Impact of
redistricting<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=q%2FAnRZHhBCcJ99jDUXYljIG4iGA4w3V9>-
How redistricting in 2011-2012 affected voter choice and shielded
vulnerable incumbents
- Election projection
overview<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=u4wHVaZHQ9xnZyEJWySjhAr%2FBgxX85hF>-
What our projections say about the 2012 elections and beyond
- Power of
partisanship<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=VbvYGD%2BKy0%2FYUYJjexeHvAr%2FBgxX85hF>-
How district partisanship overwhelmed all other factors in 2010
elections
- The great partisan shift in the
South<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2B742CDSu4Vv2ILIWay8Sdwr%2FBgxX85hF>-
Comparison of the partisan landscape in southern states in 1991 to
2011
and that shift's impact on competition and voting rights
- Partisanship and crossover voting in the U.S.
House<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=c%2BFZZwKkqTdsz2czY7ey2gr%2FBgxX85hF>-
How district partisanship is the strongest explanation for why some
Members break from their party's majority on certain votes
*2012 Election Projections and Information for the States*
The state links below provide:
- The partisanship rating for all 435 House districts
- The partisanship rating for incumbents' 2012 district compared to
their 2010 district, along with information about incumbent's performance
- 2012 election projections for every district based on these factors
- Each state's redistricting process in 2011-2012
- Overview of election and district projections for 2012-2020
Click a state name below for each report. Click
here<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=oqNLEPK5HXRipz6BSY%2FwbAr%2FBgxX85hF>
for
national projections. Our
methodology<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=7eI5tHq8hU3iWkSYuxGvxgr%2FBgxX85hF>
clarifies
the reports.
Alabama<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=y3j3ZrdyZgL0qu9CW%2B6XiAr%2FBgxX85hF>
Hawaii<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=gYrA8gjX86%2FDnff6Eg0c9wr%2FBgxX85hF>
Massachusetts<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=VdfR1DMAHFpYaCPs8FPnZwr%2FBgxX85hF>
New
Mexico<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=NKpgMP6Xjyl7vXRe8I8BFwr%2FBgxX85hF>
South
Dakota<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=8eGGOGEzgfznGICg%2F9URJQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Alaska<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=FF8aAJHiMr3h4tuAdEHrAQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Idaho<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=hPDXZoFwMDl4zU2EiJP0MQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Michigan<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=wQ8uaNXduEXNc6nKDMFn1gr%2FBgxX85hF>
New
York<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=41P1wIPhuZpDkLY3e8L0Ugr%2FBgxX85hF>
Tennessee<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=wkOSLX%2FsYYAEaZHCm%2FbeYQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Arizona<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=LdTsh4fu4zgDjYJk3M8fAgr%2FBgxX85hF>
Illinois<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2FP9MZxTzvEiS6b9tjS2qvAr%2FBgxX85hF>
Minnesota<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=3u0faJUimoyVg6azgoF0cgr%2FBgxX85hF>
North
Carolina<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=vm7j6zM2LNpRW4fKQ06JTQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Texas<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=makeui1t2SHaB7stjgXYZ4G4iGA4w3V9>
Arkansas<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=TyOY2sqsRBpTEYKpZ%2B1P0gr%2FBgxX85hF>
Indiana<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=9ntevfNVKygcuIKh4hsDOwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Mississippi<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=OLfui0ikmHva4wLMWWZqCQr%2FBgxX85hF>
North
Dakota<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=oGIAUZTlLGaNuhATwj%2FWTwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Utah<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=OKOaR%2FGkbTbskYlL5ebYPwr%2FBgxX85hF>
California<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=2Vkq54C8izaQkls1w6BLIwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Iowa<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=UAZZYohvM8a48QCsJfLdVQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Missouri<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=29ziDENPaL%2FE3cs7Icfn7Qr%2FBgxX85hF>
Ohio<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=34lHbN2O8HkYauCdrwIY7gr%2FBgxX85hF>
Vermont<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=0EfTYTQ4G1DpsYolCMmfiwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Colorado<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=1ezplG82uuMPzidIqzmMCwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Kansas<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=5wPqjebnhe294OmnBohoigr%2FBgxX85hF>
Montana<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=KjU0HW0uAzkPSZJc6BwKUgr%2FBgxX85hF>
Oklahoma<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2BKH7BlH2cXvT1yxJq08vowr%2FBgxX85hF>
Virginia<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=FAbllLXctOBtgyrxkLj3WAr%2FBgxX85hF>
Connecticut<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=34lHbN2O8HmoQD4lCIgxqwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Kentucky<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=hU%2FmfCMkJwN%2F7XR084Tc%2BQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Nebraska<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=wQ8uaNXduEXjjj7QkcfTwQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Oregon<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=hK9hmPQ9nHsq%2Bz6YFxgfSwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Washington<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2Fpm%2BVza%2Bg4RXOf4wo%2FjLEAr%2FBgxX85hF>
Delaware<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=AfGIhNCpVVFyRVt6xCmsIgr%2FBgxX85hF>
Louisiana<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=RnCcpXp8oF16UZpO0U8HSwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Nevada<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=NS6vBlOOqso5qTy9UNuUsQr%2FBgxX85hF>
Pennsylvania<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=oKPsMt6a8g7bFLuwUz%2BuRQr%2FBgxX85hF>
West
Virginia<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=2YZToBItG2WDwxIF%2Fq8F3Ar%2FBgxX85hF>
Florida<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=wXFbFR0Mr0Akvhmuy55oBgr%2FBgxX85hF>
Maine<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=uMyYDC%2BU8LmGpLA%2FEqavjgr%2FBgxX85hF>
New
Hampshire<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=m2xTmm1Tlv9KnDBXfzMiWAr%2FBgxX85hF>
Rhode
Island<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=JL7CWSGNkI9mpp5DsfMW%2Fwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Wisconsin<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=XY0FYWQ4ar40TxOvpoIOEwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Georgia<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=QjEEPWiymx%2Fb5acq61vT%2Bwr%2FBgxX85hF>
Maryland<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=2BBKFsMsou7%2FJLBBsICIZQr%2FBgxX85hF>
New
Jersey<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=E4cgfR6FlMz5tam0urmfHQr%2FBgxX85hF>
South
Carolina<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=XtohKBwU2fJz5e2JkII0Lgr%2FBgxX85hF>
Wyoming<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=8gh6iQ%2Fq2i2kYZLAEJKl%2BAr%2FBgxX85hF>
*Source Data: *Find
here<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=aHncWiUCGyH2%2BidjPInVFAr%2FBgxX85hF>
a
spreadsheet containing the complete data used to create the *Monopoly
Politics 2012 *and *Fair Voting 2012 *reports. This data includes
partisanship ratings and racial makeup for each congressional district
before and after redistricting, as well as a breakdown of each proposed
Super District by partisanship and race.
*Fair Voting 2012 Analysis and explanation*
- Fair voting
overview<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=skLX%2BC%2BOiXZNLtPJA7D07Qr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Fair voting
FAQ<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=PL1adtDD57l90BC%2F2wDgXAr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Examples of fair voting
methods<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Bd0MOJWerCDRE6VDesLKHwr%2FBgxX85hF>
- District lines built from scratch, a Louisiana fair voting
plan<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=n6ke62USXjQum%2B6WWs%2BTswr%2FBgxX85hF>
- National
comparison<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=VH9YNZ0dHIL6w8yWsFuxiQr%2FBgxX85hF>of
fair voting to current plan and
summary<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=EyBKywvuEdLItzU06cMrZAr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Illinois history with fair voting for state house of
representatives<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=OLfui0ikmHv1qCmM0zm88Qr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Legality of fair voting for
Congress<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=a%2Bz5e3jVo%2B%2FzsDPnve7cZQr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Department of Justice Support for Fair
Voting<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=0knR0ym0MIJys2UDq%2BlazQr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Proposed congressional statutes to
allow<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=IdoPq4pvaHDfM5gAThHZdgr%2FBgxX85hF>and
require<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=hSpTnv3gt3OgZ2zL5RNftAr%2FBgxX85hF>fair
voting, with
background<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=GcEqFs%2Flmm%2BvxqLswQhMfoG4iGA4w3V9>
- Methodology<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=mXjk0YqR5dsaXg150kl2XAr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Voting Rights
Analysis<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=kHl2NjRuKEHJLTRyvFs4wYG4iGA4w3V9>
- Glossary of
terms<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=XqdIjSyxrLwGQlB%2F8akqNwr%2FBgxX85hF>
- Dedication to William Raspberry and Lindsey
Needham<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=pr7QicQ7z2Ay0zB5hgKhsAr%2FBgxX85hF>
*
*
* *
*
______________________________________Related_________________________________________
*
*Dubious Democracy<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2FJEe93LXP0cinIgtItJKGAr%2FBgxX85hF>
*
- Comprehensive state-by-state data on competition and representation in
every state since 1982
------------------------------
*Connect with us*
**<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=6M%2BGQKjQ%2Bqa8N%2FtTLM1GYgr%2FBgxX85hF>
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=4naJkKfc4fyZjQVn7v6Z5gr%2FBgxX85hF>
**
--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
Rob Richie
Executive Director
FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616
Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider a gift
to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's CFC number is
10132.) Thank you!
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