[EL] 8 states, 11 counties, and 1, 650, 000 voters will decide who is the next president

[John Meyer]

NO.  8-10 States will decide the election, but ALL the voters in these States are critical, not just those in the 'swing" counties.  

While it is true that about 40 States are not close enough that one's Presidential vote is likely to "count" in the sense of being cast in a close election, the rest of this argument is
fallacious, because there are numerous ways to win a close State, whether it be for President, Senator or Governor.  It is not only swing counties that determine a close election in a State.   
One can very often win a tight race by getting a higher-than-usual turnout in one's core counties, rather than by winning the swing counties -- or conversely if for some reason one's opponent's 
core counties have a lower-than-usual turnout, one can win without carrying the swing counties.  Most close election results are some combination of performance in swing counties, turnout
in each candidate's base counties, and percentages run up in the base counties (e.g., one could win even with an average turnout in one's base counties if one got a 70% margin when one 
would normally expect a 65% margin in these counties, all else being reasonably equal).  

To put it on an individual basis, I am a voter in Arlington County, Virginia.  My vote 'counts' just as much as a vote in the "swing" Prince William County, Virginia.  If I stay home, that hurts the 
candidate I would have voted for just as much as if one of that candidate's Prince William County supporters stayed home.  It is only in Presidential elections and in comparisons between States that 
the argument works.  If I stay home as a Virginia voter, that hurts my Presidential candidate a lot more than if one of his supporters in Maryland stayed home, as there is likely to be a 20%
margin in Maryland, so a lot of voters for either candidate could stay home without affecting the result.  


________________________________
 From: David A. Schultz <dschultz at gw.hamline.edu>
To: PSRT-L at H-NET.MSU.EDU; law-election at uci.edu 
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2012 9:07 AM
Subject: [EL] 8 states, 11 counties, and 1, 650, 000 voters will decide who is the next president
 

Hi all:

Robert Dahl once argued that there is no such thing as majority rule.  Instead, elections are about cobbling together coalitions of groups or minorities to form a majority.  Political elections then are about marginalities.  They are about the logic of small numbers.  It is a bout moving an incremental number of voters to achieve a victory.

I decided to crunch a few numbers to show this marginality this year.  We all know that the presidential race is about the achieving 270 Electoral Votes.  This race to 270 has meant that the battle is over in 40 states plus D.C., leaving us with 10 swing states.  These states were:

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Colorado
North Carolina
Iowa
Nevada
Virginia

In those 10 swing states, the Associated Press has argued that it is up to about 106 battle ground counties. How many voters are we talking about that might influence the election of president?
Assume 5% undecided in those ten swing states and the number is 1.835.599 voters.
Assume 8% undecided voters in those ten swing states and the number is 2.936.958 voters.

Now assume North Carolina and Nevada are no longer swinging, we have eight swing states.  In the remaining swing states on average 4.9% undecided according to polls in Real Clear Politics on October 25.  My estimate then is that between 1.500,000 and 1.835.599 voters will decide the election, with the focus being on about 11 counties across the country where the battles are really taking place.  These counties in my estimate are:

Hillsborough County, NH
Prince William County, Virginia
Chester County, PA
Jefferson County, Colorado
Arapahoe County, Colorado
Hamilton County, Ohio
Pinellas County, FL
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Racine County, WI
Winnebago County, WI
Bremer County, Iowa (Waverly)

Finally, now assume in 2012 that the estimated eligible voter population is 222,000,000.  In 2010 it was 217,000,000, and in 2008 it was approximately 212,000,000 with about a 63% (131 million voters) turnout.  Assume again about 63% voter turnout this year due to high interest and intensity in the race.   The average of 1.500,000 and 1.835.599 voters (total number of undeceived swing voters in the swing states) is approximately 1,650,000.  Divide that number by the estimated eligible voting population in 2012 (222,000,000) and this means that approximately 0.74% of the eligible voting population will decide the presidential election.




David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
School of Business
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Named one of the inaugural 2012 FacultyRow SuperProfessors

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