[EL] ELB News and Commentary 10/26/12
Rick Hasen
rhasen at law.uci.edu
Fri Oct 26 08:31:01 PDT 2012
A "Status Quo Election?" Not Really: The Loss of Senate Moderates
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42520>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:23 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42520>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Aaron Blake explores
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/26/a-status-quo-election-could-be/>
the (I believe strong) possibility that we'll continue to have President
Obama, a Democratic Senate, and a Republican House after election day.
He calls that a "status quo election."
I don't think that's right. The Senate is going to be a very different
place, as Senate moderates from both parties leave. With the absence of
Conrad, Huchison, Lugar, Nelson, and Snowe, the Senate is going to be a
much harder place to get things done. In fact, in a forthcoming piece
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2130190> I trace
much of the decline in bipartisan overrides of Supreme Court statutory
decisions to the decline of Senate moderates.
It also has implications for the Senate confirmation of future Supreme
Court judicial nominees. Here's a brief excerpt from my piece:
The shift to explicit consideration of ideology and away from at least
an ostensible focus on judicial competence has coincided with increasing
partisan split on votes for Supreme Court judicial confirmations.
Putting aside the contentious Bork hearings (to which I will return) and
Justice Thomas's confirmation vote, which occurred after a highly
contentious hearing in which he was accused of sexual harassment,
Supreme Court nominees until recently enjoyed bipartisan support in
confirmation votes. Justices Scalia and Kennedy were approved on
unanimous votes, and Justices Breyer and Ginsburg had few votes against
them.
More recent votes have seen much more substantial opposition to nominees
along party lines. Chief Justice Roberts had 22 votes cast against him,
all by Democrats and without any objections raised to his
qualifications. Justice Alito had 42 votes cast against him (two more
than necessary for a filibuster, had Democrats decided to filibuster),
gaining yes votes from only two Democrats. Justice Sotomayor had 31
votes cast against her, garnering the support of nine Republicans. The
most recent nominee, Justice Kagan, had 37 votes cast against her,
gaining only five Republican votes. Opposing Senators did not raise any
serious questions about the qualifications of any of these nominees.
Notably, the two Democrats voting for Justice Alito (Conrad and Nelson)
will have left the Senate by 2013, and three of the five Republicans
voting for Justice Kagan (Gregg, Lugar, and Snowe) will have left the
Senate by 2013. Each of these Senators was known as a moderate. Figure
14 shows the number of "No" votes received by each current member of the
Supreme Court during the nomination process.
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/fig14.png>
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Posted in legislation and legislatures
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>, political polarization
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68> | Comments Off
"Blocking the Vote" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42518>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:14 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42518>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT editorial
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/opinion/blocking-the-vote.html?ref=politics>
calls for federal investigation of Sproul's activities.
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Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> |
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"Obama, Romney and Their Parties on Track to Raise $2 Billion"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42516>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:13 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42516>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT reports.
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/us/politics/obama-and-romney-raise-1-billion-each.html?ref=politics>
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Texas AG Continues Spat over International Election Monitors with
'Bring It' Tweet" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42514>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:11 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42514>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
ABA Journal reports
<http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/texas_ag_continues_spat_over_international_election_monitors_with_bring_it_/>.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Will Voter Suppression Tactics Threaten Free and Fair Elections?"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42511>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:08 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42511>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
This item <http://www.prwatch.org/node/11815>appears at PR Watch.
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Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> |
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"Outside Money in the House: Six Graphs and Seven Takeaways"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42508>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:05 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42508>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Sunlight:
<http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2012/10/26/outside-money-in-the-house/>
"We are now at $218.8 million in House outside spending, with almost
one-third of that money coming in the last 10 days, and more than half
of it coming since October 1. Republicans lead in outside money $119.6
million to $96.7 million, including a two-to-one lead in dark money.
Democratic super PACs, meanwhile, have outspent Republican super PACs."
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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Interesting Federal-State Court Dispute in Question Over Montana
Campaign Contribution <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42505>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:03 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42505>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
I expect
<http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/2492ffd10f6947898aa239fc6f79b332/MT--Campaign-Finance-Montana>the
federal courts will ultimately prevail, but we will see.
And I shouldn't bury the lede: the $500K to the Republican candidate
came from the Republican Governors Association.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Hearing set on $11-million election donation from Arizona
nonprofit" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42503>
Posted on October 26, 2012 8:01 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42503>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
LA Times
<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2012/10/california-election-arizona-nonprofit-donation.html>:
"The next round in the legal battle over an $11-million donation from an
Arizona nonprofit will be fought Tuesday. A Superior Court judge in
Sacramento set the date after a brief hearing Thursday. The Fair
Political Practices Commission is seeking records that could be used to
unmask the donors behind the nonprofit Americans for Responsible
Leadership."
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"2012 Judicial Campaign Spending Exceeds $13 Million, Surpasses
2010? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42500>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:57 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42500>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
See this press release.
<http://www.justiceatstake.org/newsroom/press-releases-16824/?2012_judicial_campaign_spending_exceeds_13_million_surpasses_2010&show=news&newsID=15134>
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,
campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, judicial elections
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=19> | Comments Off
"Treasury Says Firm Discussed Tax Break"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42497>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:50 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42497>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/us/politics/treasury-says-firm-discussed-tax-break.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y&_r=0>:
"The Treasury Department
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/treasury_department/index.html?inline=nyt-org>
said Thursday that a communications firm with close ties to President
Obama
<http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/candidates/barack-obama?inline=nyt-per>
talked to the administration about allowing tax breaks for its corporate
clients on more than $1 trillion in offshore revenues."
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Posted in conflict of interest laws
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=20>, lobbying
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28> | Comments Off
"Paul Ryan's 'Problematic' RNC Spending Spree"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42494>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:47 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42494>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Politicker <http://politicker.com/2012/10/paul-ryan-campaign-money/>: "A
Politicker examination of federal campaign finance disclosure reports
submitted by Paul Ryan's congressional campaign has uncovered
indications Mr. Ryan may have improperly used funds raised for his
re-election effort in Wisconsin for presidential campaign activities at
the Republican National Convention in August. Mr. Ryan is simultaneously
running for re-election in Wisconsin's First Congressional District and
on the GOP presidential ticket with Mitt Romney. At the RNC in Tampa,
Mr. Ryan's House campaign spent over $75,000. However, these convention
expenses seem to go far beyond the scope of the activities and staff he
had at the RNC for his bid to reclaim his House seat."
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Romney Enters Final Stretch With Money Edge Over Obama"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42492>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:43 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42492>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Bloomberg reports.
<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/adelsons-give-10-million-more-to-pro-romney-super-pac.html?alcmpid=politics>
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Ohio Sees Enough Campaign Ads to Air Nonstop for 80 Days"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42490>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:42 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42490>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Bloomberg reports.
<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-26/ohio-sees-enough-campaign-ads-to-air-nonstop-for-80-days.html?alcmpid=politics>
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,
campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59> | Comments Off
"Poll shows widening racial gap in presidential contest"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42487>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:37 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42487>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WaPo reports.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/poll-shows-widening-racial-gap-in-presidential-contest/2012/10/25/9d5be0d4-1ed1-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html>
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Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59> | Comments Off
"Chill the HECK Out" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42485>
Posted on October 26, 2012 7:35 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42485>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
A public service announcement from Doug Chapin
<http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/electionacademy/2012/10/election_doomsday_scenarios_do.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HHHElections+%28The+Election+Aacdemy%29>.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
I Know It's Close to the Election...
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42480>
Posted on October 25, 2012 10:01 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42480> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
when reporters stop calling about "armies of lawyers" stories and start
calling about "post-election doomsday" scenarios.
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Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> |
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"Little-known candidates could harm Romney, Obama bids"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42478>
Posted on October 25, 2012 10:00 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42478> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
CNN reports
<http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/25/politics/third-party-candidates/index.html?hpt=hp_c1>.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, third
parties <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=47> | Comments Off
"Independent spending pours into state congressional races"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42475>
Posted on October 25, 2012 9:50 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42475>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
LA Times
<http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-congress-money-20121026,0,2545597.story>:
Democratic congressional candidate Jay Chen couldn't begin to match
the nearly $2.5 million raised by longtime Rep. Ed Royce
(R-Fullerton), whom Chen is challenging for what is widely regarded
as a safe GOP
<http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/parties-movements/republican-party-ORGOV0000004.topic>
seat.
But a little-known group called America Shining recently started
spending money --- more than $610,000 so far --- to oppose Royce and
help Chen, drawing attention to the race in ways the Chen campaign
couldn't afford. The outlay by the 3-month-old America Shining,
whose only donor is Chen's brother Shaw, is a fraction of the nearly
$42 million in independent spending poured into unusually
competitive California congressional races this year.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Judge rules no need to rehire Ohio Democratic election officials"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42472>
Posted on October 25, 2012 9:42 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42472>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Reuters reports
<http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-usa-campaignohio-votingl1e8lphpd-20121025,0,7077981.story>.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Palm Beach County ballot flaw causes another recount"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42469>
Posted on October 25, 2012 9:40 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42469>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Tampa Bay Tribune
<http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1258389.ece>:
""By now, questions can be asked about why these type of problems keep
happening in this one county," said Ed Foley, an Ohio State University
law professor and expert on election law."
That's Ned Foley, by the way.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
Chevron Gives $2.5 Million to Republican House PAC
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42466>
Posted on October 25, 2012 9:10 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42466>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Adam Smith tweets. <https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/261678903620419585>
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"American Crossroads Final Efforts Heavily Funded By Swift Boat
Donors" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42464>
Posted on October 25, 2012 9:10 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42464>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Paul Blumenthal reports
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/american-crossroads-swift-boat_n_2020651.html?utm_hp_ref=tw>
for HuffPo.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
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"Obama's Early Voting Advantage" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42461>
Posted on October 25, 2012 6:33 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42461>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
David Firestone blogs
<http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/obamas-early-voting-advantage/>
at NYT's "Taking Note" blog.
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Posted in voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31> | Comments Off
"Romney Campaign Downplays Early Vote --- And Begs For It"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42458>
Posted on October 25, 2012 4:27 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42458>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
BuzzFeed reports
<http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/romney-campaign-downplays-early-vote-and-begs>.
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Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59> | Comments Off
"How Hillary Clinton or Ron Paul Could Still Become President"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42455>
Posted on October 25, 2012 4:17 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42455>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Deep dive
<http://daily-download.com/hillary-clinton-ron-paul-president/> into the
12th amendment.
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Posted in electoral college <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=44> |
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"Resolving an Election In Extra Innings"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42452>
Posted on October 25, 2012 4:14 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42452>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Steve Huefner
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/comments/index.php?ID=9931>:
As the prospects of a close Presidential election this fall show
no signs of abating, it is worth reflecting on what might -- and
should -- happen after Election Day in the event of an election that
is too-close-to-call. My colleague Ned Foley has already addressed
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/freefair/index.php?ID=9905>one
aspect of this "what if" scenario, namely, the possibility that a
swing state like Ohio, because it has a large number of provisional
ballots or late-arriving absentee ballots, may not be able to
declare a winner until some ten days after Election Day. But beyond
that reality of the regular election processes, what if alleged
errors or mistakes in the casting or counting of ballots lead to an
election contest over the outcome in a particular state? How well
prepared are states to handle post-election litigation on a very
compressed timetable, and under the glare of the national spotlight?
This is an issue that the American Law Institute currently has under
consideration. The ultimate goal of this multi-year ALI project on
election law
<http://www.ali.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=projects.proj_ip&projectid=24>
is to promulgate principles that individual states could adopt to
assist them in fairly, reliably, and expeditiously resolving
post-election disputes. But those principles are still in their
formative stages, and the ALI has not yet taken any official
position on what principles to recommend. Nevertheless, the work to
date of the ALI project may offer some guidance in the event of an
election contest this year.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>, The Voting Wars
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"A Congress Too Polarized to Protect Itself"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42450>
Posted on October 25, 2012 4:13 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=42450>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Bloomberg View offers this editorial
<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/a-congress-too-polarized-to-protect-itself.html>,
which discusses, among other things, my forthcoming law review article,
End the Dialogue? Political Polarization, the Supreme Court and Congress
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2130190>.
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Posted in legislation and legislatures
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>, political polarization
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68>, Supreme Court
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29> | Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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