[EL] Military ballot requests in NC

[Michael McDonald]

Since the Federal Voting Assistance Commission Acting Director Pamela
Mitchell is testifying today before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on
Military Personnel, I will update the list on the state of military absentee
ballot requests in North Carolina.

Despite earlier reports, the number of military (and civilian) absentee
ballot requests is tracking to be on par with the number of applications
from 2008. In 2008, on Monday Sept. 15, 2008 -- the first day that North
Carolina absentee ballots were ready for delivery -- 3,949 absentee ballots
had been requested by military personnel. So far in 2012, as of Thursday
Sept. 13, 2012, the number of military ballot applications stands at 3,236.
The number of requests has been steadily increasing, and was over 200
yesterday. Keep in mind that the election was held two days earlier in 2008
than in 2012, and further complicating matters is that North Carolina began
delivering ballots earlier this year on Friday 7th. So, there are multiple
moving parts here, but with the pace of military applications increasing, it
looks as though when all is said and done, the number of military absentee
ballot requests could be on par with 2008. We still do not know what the
overall turnout rate will be, which if survey measures are enthusiasm are an
indicator, I currently expect to be slightly lower than 2008. Thus, the rate
of military absentee ballot requests in North Carolina may or may not exceed
2008 when expressed as a percentage of all ballots cast.

I do not wish to diminish the problems that have been reported regarding the
number of federal voting assistance offices that have been set up, but
before Congress judges the efficacy of costly voting assistance offices vs.
web-based assistance options, I think it is prudent to observe the entirety
of the election. 

For those who wish to know more, I am updating early voting numbers on a
daily basis at: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

703-993-4191 (office)
e-mail:  mmcdon at gmu.edu               
web:     http://elections.gmu.edu
twitter: @ElectProject