[EL] California top-two effect on number of Republicans running for US House

[Richard Winger]

California's new congressional districts, drawn by the state's first non-partisan districting commission, are considered to have produced more competitive districts than the redistricting in place 2001-2010.  The 2000 decade redistricting was famous for making as many districts as possible "safe" for one or the other major party.

So, if Republicans ran in every single district in California in 2010 under the old, uncompetitive districts, the new districts surely wouldn't have deterred any Republican from running.

I can't imagine any other strategic considerations that would cause Republicans to want to run in fewer districts.  A major party loses prestige when it doesn't field anyone for a congressional race.  The absence of a congressional candidate is bad for the morale of the local party in that area.

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

--- On Thu, 9/27/12, Jack Santucci <jms346 at georgetown.edu> wrote:

From: Jack Santucci <jms346 at georgetown.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] California top-two effect on number of Republicans running for US House
To: "richardwinger at yahoo.com" <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Cc: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Thursday, September 27, 2012, 10:37 PM

How do we know it's top-two? Might it have to do with redistricting? Other year-specific strategic considerations? Idiosyncratic factors?
Best,
Jack

On Thursday, September 27, 2012, Richard Winger  wrote:

The Republican Party has candidates on the ballot in 415 U.S. House districts this year (out of 435 districts in the nation).  Of the twenty districts in which there is no Republican, nine of them are in California.  By contrast, in 2010, every California district had a Republican on the ballot.  


In 2010, the Republicans nationally had candidates on the ballot in 428 districts, so two-thirds of the national reduction for the party is due to California's top-two system.

Richard Winger

415-922-9779

PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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