[EL] Palmdale California VRA case

Tue Dec 3 22:32:29 PST 2013

As one might imagine from reading the ruling and remedy order in Palmdale,
there are many, many complex issues going on here. As one of the City's
experts, I'll save the details for court, but here are just a couple
examples of the complexity of this situation: (these are already in the
record): 

.        My friend Mr. Ely mischaracterizes the Defense view of the racially
polarized voting evidence. But he is correct that it is possible to draw a
district that is over 50% Latino CVAP - but that's obvious, as the City as a
whole is now over 50% Latino CVAP (this is in the record from the remedy
hearing, though the 2012 one-year ACS data, which indicated the City was
over 49% and that the Latino % of CVAP was continuing to increase 2-3
percent per year, was not until after the original trial testimony). 

.        The November election, whose certification the court blocked,
elected the City's first African-American Councilmember. At the time the
injunction was requested it was known that election was guaranteed to elect
either an African-American or a Latino, as two seats were up for election
and only one Anglo was running (against a Latino former Councilmember and
two African Americans).

.        All of the incumbent Councilmembers (except one who did not run for
re-election but who stays in office while the injunction against
certification is in place), along with the
newly-elected-but-not-yet-certified African American Councilmember, and
along with the Latino former Councilmember who lost his effort to rejoin the
Council in this recent election, are drawn into a single district (District
2) in the court plan.

.        The Court directs the City to consolidate its elections with
statewide November even-year elections, but LA County
<http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/30/local/la-me-school-elections-201305
01> has recently barred jurisdictions from consolidating for the technical
reason that the LA County ballot has no more space on its ballot card for
any more local elections.

An interactive ArcGIS Online version, in color, of the district plan ordered
by the court is available at the link below for anyone interested in a
version easier to read than the black & white map in the ruling. The large
unshaded areas in the middle are unincorporated county islands.

 <http://bit.ly/1izbGFG> http://bit.ly/1izbGFG 

(If you use this map for professional or academic purposes, please attribute
it to National Demographics Corporation).

This case is likely to remain interesting as it winds through the judicial
process.

-        Doug

Douglas Johnson, President

National Demographics Corporation

 <mailto:djohnson at NDCresearch.com> djohnson at NDCresearch.com

310-200-2058 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Tuesday, December 3, 2013 9:27 PM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 12/4/13

More on Palmdale <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57139>  

Posted on December 3, 2013 9:11 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57139>  by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Plaintiffs' expert in the Palmdale case (see earlier post
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57111> ), David Ely, sends along these
thoughts via email:

1. Judge did not say that incumbency can never be a consideration, he said
that it cannot be used to justify a plan that otherwise violates traditional
redistricting criteria and is designed to maintain the existing power
structure.  He quotes my characterization of their plan as an egregious
incumbent gerrymander, and notes that it would work against remedying the
violation. Going from an at large system found in violation to a district
system is always going to need extra suspicion of incumbency protection.
Since the incumbents were elected at large there are no issues of keeping
officials with the constituents who elected them, as any district will do
that.

2. While the CVRA standards may be much easier to meet than federal VRA
standards, the case against Palmdale meets federal standards and could
easily have been a Summary Judgment case in Federal court.  Defendants'
expert agreed that it was possible to draw at least one 50% Latino CVAP
district, and that historical elections have been characterized by racially
polarized voting, and that minority candidates of choice in city council
elections have only won when they were Anglo choice as well. Defense
argument was based on idea that Democratic candidates winning locally in
partisan statewide contests, supported by Latinos and not by Anglos, meant
that Latinos could elect candidates of choice. In addition Palmdale has an
extensive history of racial conflict and official discrimination.

3.The Modesto case which the Supreme Court refused to hear raised the equal
protection argument in a situation where a Section 2 case might well have
failed.  There could be a case which raises the argument more compellingly,
but that would require a judge to find a violation and order a remedy that
could be said to violate Equal Protection as applied.  This case raises none
of those issues, and I doubt that California Courts will apply the CVRA in a
way that does.

In Fascinating Case, Judge Orders New Elections in Palmdale under CA Voting
Rights Act <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57111>  

Posted on December 3, 2013 10:11 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57111>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

A Los Angeles County superior court judge has issued this tentative remedial
order  <http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/palmdale-order.pdf>
(following this ruling on the merits
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/jauregui-final-statement-of-d
ecision.pdf> ) that the City of Palmdale's at large elections violate the
California Voting Rights Act
<http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/displaycode?section=elec&group=14001-1500
0&file=14025-14032> . I am about to talk about this on KPCC.  (Update: You
should be able to listen to the archived interview a bit later here
<http://www.scpr.org/programs/take-two/2013/12/03/34920/judge-rules-that-pal
mdale-must-change-city-electio/> .)

Here is the Daily News story
<http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20131202/judge-kicks-out-p
almdale-city-council-orders-special-election> ; here is the one in the LA
Times
<http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-palmdale-elect-20131203,0,198764.story#a
xzz2mLXlh42k> .

There are many fascinating issues, assuming this tentative ruling becomes
final.  Can the judge throw out the results of the recent election as a CVRA
remedy? (The judge tried to block the election, but a divided appellate
court reversed
<http://articles.latimes.com/2013/oct/16/local/la-me-pc-palmdale-election-20
131016> . UPDATE: Kevin Shenkman clarifies: The appellate court did not
reverse any ruling by Judge Mooney. 2 of 3 appellate judges interpreted
Judge Mooney's order as prohibiting only the certification of the election,
and on that basis denied Defendant's petition for writ of supersedeas. The
election has not been, and will not be, certified, absent further action by
a court.)

The judge said incumbency could not be a factor to be considered in drawing
the lines.  For this reason, and others, the judge rejected the City's
proposed plan. Will that stand up on appeal?  More broadly, the CVRA gives
broad remedial powers to the judges in these cases.  How should they be
exercised? (Neither party in this case, for example, preferred a cumulative
voting remedy.)

Finally, and most significantly, the California Voting Rights Act imposes
standards which are much easier to meet than the federal voting rights
standards.  If someone brought a federal constitutional equal protection
challenge against the Act, will it stand?  The Supreme Court a few years ago
refused to take a CVRA case, but another case might fare better, especially
in a post-Shelby County world.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57111&title=In%20Fascinating%20Case%2C%20Judge%20Orders%20New%20Electi
ons%20in%20Palmdale%20under%20CA%20Voting%20Rights%20Act&description=> Share

Posted in voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31> , Voting Rights Act
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>  

 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57109> "Business Groups Eye Expanded Role in
Elections" 

Posted on December 3, 2013 10:04 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57109>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

WSJ reports
<http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230457940457923403338643
0854> .

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57109&title=%E2%80%9CBusiness%20Groups%20Eye%20Expanded%20Role%20in%20
Elections%E2%80%9D&description=> Share

Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> , campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>  

 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57107> "Nagle on Withdrawal As Cure for
Campaign Contributions" 

Posted on December 3, 2013 10:01 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57107>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

This item
<http://www.cityethics.org/content/nagle-withdrawal-cure-campaign-contributi
ons>  appears at City Ethics.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57107&title=%E2%80%9CNagle%20on%20Withdrawal%20As%20Cure%20for%20Campa
ign%20Contributions%E2%80%9D&description=> Share

Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> , conflict
of interest laws <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=20>  

 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57105> "Democrats: Investigate Joe Deters'
voting history" 

Posted on December 3, 2013 9:57 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57105>  by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

The
<http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201312022314/NEWS01/3
12020039> Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57105&title=%E2%80%9CDemocrats%3A%20Investigate%20Joe%20Deters%E2%80%9
9%20voting%20history%E2%80%9D&description=> Share

Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> , The
Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>  

Better Link to Moreland Report on NY Corruption
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57103>  

Posted on December 3, 2013 9:56 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57103>  by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Here
<http://publiccorruption.moreland.ny.gov/sites/default/files/moreland_report
_final.pdf> .

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57103&title=Better%20Link%20to%20Moreland%20Report%20on%20NY%20Corrupt
ion&description=> Share

Posted in bribery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=54> , campaign finance
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> , chicanery
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>  

Top Recent Downloads in Election Law on SSRN
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57101>  

Posted on December 3, 2013 9:55 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57101>  by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Here
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/topten/topTenResults.cfm?groupingId=991929&neto
rjrnl=jrnl> :

RECENT HITS (for all papers announced in the last 60 days) 
TOP 10 Papers for Journal of LSN: Election Law & Voting Rights (Topic)
<http://papers.ssrn.com/publicRss/rssManagerInc.cfm?journalId=991929>
cid:image002.png at 01CEF072.BDB27410
October 4, 2013 to December 3, 2013 

Rank

Downloads

Paper Title

1 

179 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2353068> Race or Party?
How Courts Should Think About Republican Efforts to Make it Harder to Vote
in North Carolina and Elsewhere 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=337> Richard L.
Hasen,
University of California, Irvine - School of Law,
Date posted to database: November 13, 2013
Last Revised: November 14, 2013 

2 

115 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2343956> Voting
Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=33688> Eric A.
Posner,  <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1186331>
E. Glen Weyl,
University of Chicago - Law School, University of Chicago,
Date posted to database: October 24, 2013
Last Revised: October 30, 2013 

3 

97 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2334454> Disclosure and
Corruption 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1304972> Michael
D. Gilbert,
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2131329> Benjamin
Aiken,
University of Virginia School of Law, University of Virginia - School of
Law, Degree Candidate Author,
Date posted to database: October 2, 2013
Last Revised: November 15, 2013 

4 

93 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2336749> Section Two
Minus Section Five 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=636048> Nicholas
Stephanopoulos,
University of Chicago Law School,
Date posted to database: October 7, 2013
Last Revised: October 27, 2013 

5 

82 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2334499> 'Super PACs'
and the Role of 'Coordination' in Campaign Finance Law 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=625464> Bradley A.
Smith,
Capital University Law School,
Date posted to database: October 2, 2013
Last Revised: October 2, 2013 

6 

72 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2337561> The Unbundled
Union: Politics Without Collective Bargaining 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=767255> Benjamin
I. Sachs,
Harvard Law School,
Date posted to database: October 9, 2013
Last Revised: November 7, 2013 

7 

47 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2346188> Structuring
Big Data to Facilitate Democratic Participation in International Law 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2016041> Roslyn
Fuller,
National University of Ireland, Maynooth (NUI Maynooth) - Department of Law,
Date posted to database: October 30, 2013
Last Revised: October 30, 2013 

8 

45 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2330520> Democracy and
the Freedom of Speech: Rethinking the Conflict between Liberty and Equality 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1166954> Yasmin
Dawood,
Faculty of Law, University of Toronto,
Date posted to database: September 27, 2013
Last Revised: September 27, 2013 

9 

35 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2337027> Shelby County
and the End of History 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1710731> Joel
Heller,
Unaffiliated Authors - Independent,
Date posted to database: October 8, 2013
Last Revised: October 8, 2013 

10 

31 

 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2339193> Keynote
Address of Prof. Richard L. Hasen Given to the Voting Wars Symposium, March
23, 2013 
 <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=337> Richard L.
Hasen,
University of California, Irvine - School of Law,
Date posted to database: October 12, 2013
Last Revised: October 12, 2013 

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D57101&title=Top%20Recent%20Downloads%20in%20Election%20Law%20on%20SSRN
&description=> Share

Posted in pedagogy <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=23>  

-- 
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org
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