[EL] Virginia AG recount reflects average margin shift of 0.03%

[Rob Richie]

As a tag to Chris Ashby's very useful blogpost linked below, I wanted to
flag that the margin shift in the Virginia AG race recount reflected the
0.03% average margin change in the now-23 statewide recounts that have
taken place in 2000-2013. See our blogpost by legal fellow Mollie Hailey
from earlier in the year based on our research in this area and a table on
the 22 recounts through last year:
http://www.fairvote.org/statewide-recounts-remain-scarce-zero-in-201<http://www.fairvote.org/statewide-recounts-remain-scarce-zero-in-201#.UrMZP9JDvzh>
http://www.fairvote.org/assets/FairVote-Recounts-2000-to-2012-Table.pdf

To put that in perspective, that means 99.5% of statewide elections did not
go to recount --and most of the recounts that were triggered had little
chance to change the outcome. Note that many states still will pay for
recounts where the initial margin is 0.5%, which is more than 15 times
larger than the average shift in margin and nearly five times higher than
the single largest margin shift (the Vermont auditor's race in 2006, where
there had been bigger errors than usual in towns doing hand-tallies).

While the shift in margin was predictably small, it also was a good bit
more than the initial margin in this exceptionally close election --
showing that the recount was most certainly warranted.

- Rob Richie, FairVote



>  [image: Share]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D57566&title=%E2%80%9CIn%20probe%20of%20Va.%20Gov.%20McDonnell%2C%20prosecutors%20agreed%20to%20delay%20decision%20on%20charges%E2%80%9D&description=>
>    Posted in bribery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=54>, chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>
>      Don’t Miss Chris Ashby’s Five Takeaways from the #VAAG Recount<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57564>
>  Posted on December 18, 2013 2:52 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=57564> by
> Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Here <http://www.ashby-law.com/the-vindication-of-creigh-deeds/>.
>


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