[EL] The cost of opting out of public financing

[Ray La Raja]

Derek,
I took the estimates posted by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) for presidential (and separately for congressional) elections in past 14 years and adjusted them for CPI.  According to CRP, these data include spending by candidates plus parties and other groups.   

Collective spending by all these committees is probably a more relevant measure of total "cost" rather than looking only at public financing of candidates, which has been easy to get around with party soft money (pre-BCRA) and now Super PACs.    Initial estimates indicate that spending was actually less in this past election than the previous one, when adjusted for inflation.  This makes sense because we did not have an open nomination for president in both parties (like 2008) and Congress wasn't in play (like in 2010).  

Looking back, you might have a point that public financing suppressed spending (compare 2000 and 2008 when there were wide open nominations in both parties).  However much has changed that may be driving up spending since then (higher ad costs, more front-loading which means the general election is longer, and spiraling polarization which raises the stakes).

The graph is part of a larger paper that will be coming out in the election issue of The Forum next week. 
http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/for

-Ray La Raja








On Feb 6, 2013, at 11:14 AM, Derek Muller wrote:

> Dear all,
> 
> I wondered if there have been any studies done calculating how much more the presidential candidates spent this cycle, in the primaries and in the general election, than if everyone had opted into public financing. My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that this has driven up the costs dramatically (both candidates would have spent only $180MM combined in the general!), but most of the attention in "the mainstream media" or "the blogosphere" has focused on Citizens United and independent expenditures (which, admittedly, have also increased dramatically).
> 
> Best,
> 
> Derek
> 
> Derek T. Muller
> 
> Associate Professor of Law
> 
> Pepperdine University School of Law
> 
> 24255 Pacific Coast Hwy.
> 
> Malibu, CA 90263
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> 
> SSRN Author Page: http://ssrn.com/author=464341
> 
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