[EL] Instructive lesson from Rick's blog entry "Map of the Day" -- and fallow(s) thinking about reform

[Rob Richie]

Kudos to Rick for 10 years of blogging and overseeing a listserv that has
actually worked over time (a one-of-a-kind experience for me).

I wanted to highlight Rick's short item below on "Map of the Day" for
underscoring the rather remarkable blindness otherwise intelligent people
can bring to trying to structure a fair electoral system.

This "map of the day" is based on dividing the United States into 50 states
of equal population. Those states then could be divided into congressional
districts of equal population. And with malapportionment banished from the
scene, we allegedly would have fair elections.

I suspect Rick doesn't think that's true, but NPR science reporter Robert
Krulwich apparently does. He titles his blog about the plan "A Crazy But
Rational Solution To Our Electoral College Problem." And he's not alone.
Jim Fallows -- founding chairman of the New America Foundation, former
editor of the US News and long time Atlantic correspondents -- also lauds
the plan in a blog for the Atlantic this week. (See:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/02/the-new-and-improved-electoral-college-map/273190/
)

Well, no Jim and Robert, it's not a rational idea. It's not a good idea.
It's a profoundly undemocratic plan that can only be explained through
acknowledgment of our irrational fetish for geographic representation and
making where you live more important than what you think.  It doesn't makes
sense, yet likely speaks to the many pundits who think that all that's
wrong with House elections is gerrymandering and that we can make one-seat
districts fair with commissions creating plans kind of like this 50-state
map.

Neil Freeman, the map's creator, suggests that his plan might have some
downsides. He mentions a couple, but neglects a rather big one: the
candidate with the most votes could easily lose. And in fact, the candidate
with the most votes in 2012 would have lost badly in this plan in 2012 with
the same distribution of votes.

It takes Michael Barone, no fan of reform, to point this out. Barone
discusses the plan in a piece rightly explaining that gerrymandering
doesn't explain why House Republicans won a majority of seats while losing
the popular vote and losing in the underlying preference of voters at the
polls by some four percentage points. In his piece (
http://washingtonexaminer.com/it-wasnt-just-redistricting-that-gave-republicans-their-house-majority/article/2521565),
he explains that he thinks that the Freeman plan would have resulted in
Romney winning by 29 to 21 in the contest for 50 "electoral college units."
He writes:

"I estimated which of their 50 states had more votes cast for Barack Obama
and which had more votes cast for Mitt Romney. My count is Romney 29, Obama
21. So their plan would have produced a Romney presidency. Now obviously
the campaign would have been conducted differently if the Electoral College
worked that way. But my point remains solid: in an election in which Obvama
won the popular vote 51%-47%, a politically neutral division of the nation
into 50 equal-population states would have given Romney 58% of the
electoral votes and Obama 42%. Equal-population districts work against the
Obama Democratic coalition."

But hey, that's okay with Fallows, Krulwich and Freeman. They also don't
seem to care a whit that this proposal would still preserve the dynamic of
a handful of swing states and everyone else experiencing the proverbial
crickets when it comes to presidential elections -- just like the voters in
the 38 states (counting DC) that were ignored in both 2008 and 2012.

The aversion to the principle of one-person, one-vote in such proposals -
that is, coming up with excuses to be against a popular vote for president
and forms of proportional representation for congressional elections  -- is
rather remarkable to see 13 years into the 21st century. People like me who
see it differently have work to do.

Rob Richie

########
Map of the Day <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=47295>
Posted on February 15, 2013 7:18 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=47295>
 by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Redrawing <http://fakeisthenewreal.org/reform/> the United States as 50
states with equal population.

MORE <http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2013/02/15/172029048/a-crazy-but-rational-solution-to-our-electoral-college-problem?ft=1&f=1014&sc=tw>from
Robert Krulwich.


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Rob Richie
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