[EL] FairVote blog on sham findings in new True the Vote report

[Rob Richie]

Yesterday Rick linked to the True the Vote report on the alleged positive
impact of voter ID laws on voter turnout. Paul Gronke also sent a message
about it.

My colleague Andie Levien decided to take a closer look and found a major
methodological error that reversed its conclusions. Read below for the
link, the opening, and a key excerpt.

- Rob

######
http://www.fairvote.org/true-the-vote-fudges-the-numbers-in-new-turnout-study

True The Vote Fudges the Numbers in New Turnout Study
by Andrea Levien <http://www.fairvote.org/list/author/Andrea_Levien> //
Published February 28, 2013

 True the Vote, an organization dedicated to eradicating voter fraud
through controversial
methods<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-voting-rights-tea-party-20121004,0,3351653.story>,
issued a report<http://www.scribd.com/doc/127481956/2012-Voter-Suppression-Myth>
on
February 27 concluding that voter ID laws and other election changes
allegedly meant to reduce voter fraud not only did not have an adverse
impact on turnout in the 2012 elections, but may have helped to increased
turnout. Its findings have been trumpeted by many news outlets who do not
believe such laws suppress voter turnout.

But it turns out the report’s authors made a huge methodological mistake.
They compared turnout of *eligible *voters in 2008 to turnout of *
registered *voters in 2012. Correcting this error reverses their findings.
All but one of the states with these new laws experienced a decline in
voter turnout, and most experienced a decline greater than the national
turnout decline from 2008 to 2012....

...True the Vote should correct this error and explain that voter turnout
in fact decreased in these states. This is not to say that this turnout
decline was necessarily *because *of these new laws. Every state that
experienced a turnout decrease greater than the national average was also
either an ignored spectator state or a state that experienced a sharp
decrease in presidential campaign attention between 2008 and 2012. But to
contend the turnout in these states increased, and that somehow voter ID
laws are to thank for this increase, makes True the Vote’s findings not
very true at all.



-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"

Rob Richie
Executive Director

FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616

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