[EL] Retiring Supremes

[Adam Morse]

Seems like a high estimate to me.  I don't think we can exclude sudden
illnesses and accidents--in a geriatric institution, those are a major
source of turnover.  But even so, I think 3 would be on the high end, and 0
is possible.

There are currently 4 justices over the age of 70:  Scalia (76), Kennedy
(76), Ginsburg (79), Breyer (74).  I would be very surprised if either
Scalia or Kennedy retired except due to extreme bad health in the next 4
years.  I'm not sure what the odds are of very bad health or death for
wealthy people aged 76-80 given very good healthcare, but I would be
surprised if more than 1 of them opened a vacancy in the next 4 years, and
not at all surprised if 0 did.  Ginsburg might well choose to retire if her
health starts failing, as might Breyer.  But if they're doing well in 3
years, they might choose to stay on the Court, notwithstanding their age.
 All of the other justices are relatively young (under 65), with all of the
other Democratic justices very young (58 and 54).  Hard to imagine anyone
outside of Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, or Breyer leaving the court except
due to misfortune.

Without having done actuarial research, I would guess that there's at least
as good a chance of 0 vacancies as 3.  I would say that 1 or 2 vacancies
seem likely, 0 possible, and 3 unlikely but possible.  So in that sense,
"1-3 likely" is true, but mostly because of 1-2.  I would be very surprised
if there were more than 4 vacancies in the next presidential term, and not
surprised if there were none.

--Adam Morse

On Fri, Jan 4, 2013 at 3:34 PM, Doug Hess <douglasrhess at gmail.com> wrote:

> The Duffield article from the law blog said that "President Obama will
> likely fill between one and three Supreme Court vacancies in the next four
> years."  Does that seem right? Assuming no sudden illnesses, accidents,
> etc., who might be leaving (and in what order would you prioritize your
> guesses)?
>
> Doug
>
>
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