[EL] "top two" and fiscal cliff votes

[Douglas Johnson]

Lest readers should see only the headline and Mark Paul's quote, the
headline is true but misleading when put with the quote: using the analysis
on Ballot Access News, "top two" primaries are essentially just as likely to
produce Republican supporters of the "cliff deal" as closed primaries: (48%
of "top two" Republicans supported the cliff bill, versus 56% of "closed" -
given the small numbers involved, essentially a tie). The real difference is
between "closed" and "top two" on one hand and "semi-closed" and "open" on
the other, since only 29% of "semi-closed" and 24% of "open" system
Republicans supported the cliff bill.

 

Those groupings ('top two' and 'closed' on one hand, 'semi-closed' and
'open' on the other) would tend to indicate that other factors played a much
larger role in Republican Member decisions.

 

Perhaps a better comparison would be between Republicans in safe seats with
"top two" systems versus Republicans in safe seats with "closed" systems?
And no analysis would be complete without considering Committee Chairs (much
more vulnerable to pressure from the Speaker) versus non-Chairs.

 

I'm also curious about the choice of only analyzing Republican Member votes?

 

-        Doug

 

Douglas Johnson, Fellow

Rose Institute of State and Local Government

at Claremont McKenna College 

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

310-200-2058 

 

 

 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Monday, January 7, 2013 9:45 PM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/8/13


 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=45977> "U.S. House Republicans Who Supported
the 'Cliff Deal' Were Most Likely to Come from States with Closed Primaries"



Posted on  <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=45977> January 7, 2013 5:06 pm by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Ballot Access News reports
<http://www.ballot-access.org/2013/01/02/u-s-house-republicans-who-supported
-the-cliff-deal-were-most-likely-to-come-from-states-with-closed-primaries/>
.

Mark Pau
<http://www.thecaliforniafix.com/thecaliforniafix/2013/1/3/the-wages-of-prim
ary-reform> l: "That doesn't count as definitive evidence, but it's a
reminder that we are still waiting for the [top two primary] reformers to
show us any evidence that the changes they pimped have had any benefit at
all." 

 
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