[EL] Voter ID Numbers

Wed Jul 24 15:20:42 PDT 2013

Nate Cohn:  "But the North Carolina data also suggests that voter ID laws are unlikely to flip the outcome of a national election..."

Hmmm.

In 2008, Obama carried NC by 14,177 votes and Indiana by 28,391.  McCain carried Missouri by 3,903 votes.  Also, wasn't there a state that was pretty close back in 2000?

And, of course, there are the 138,425 actual 2012 voters in NC who don't have ID, according to the Cohn article.

How this adds up to a conclusion that ID laws don't really matter much is beyond my comprehension.

Lloyd Leonard.

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick Hasen
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2013 12:24 PM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 7/23/13

"Finally, Real Numbers on Voter ID"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53331>
Posted on July 23, 2013 9:21 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53331> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Nate Cohn<http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113986/voter-id-north-carolina-law-hurts-democrats>:

These data leave no question about whether voter ID laws have a disparate impact on non-white voters. In that sense, Democratic fears and Republican hopes are confirmed. But the North Carolina data also suggests that voter ID laws are unlikely to flip the outcome of a national election, even if it does have an objectionable, disparate impact on non-white and Democratic-leaning voters. That doesn't mean it couldn't play a role in a close election-and close elections do happen. But Republicans expecting to flip Pennsylvania or Democrats fearing that Republicans will steal elections with voter ID should be circumspect about the comparatively modest electoral consequences. Many of the registered voters without a photo ID just aren't voting and 40 percent of them are probably voting Republican. If you want voter ID because you think you'll steal Pennsylvania, or you're opposed because you're concerned it's a Democratic apocalypse, move on. It's not the apocalypse, even if it is an affront to voting rights.

That's pretty much the conclusion I drew last year in The Voting Wars<http://www.amazon.com/The-Voting-Wars-Election-Meltdown/dp/0300198248/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?ie=UTF8&qid=1329286945&sr=1-2-catcorr>.  What's missing from this analysis is the role that the voter id debate plays on both sides in driving up turnout and spurring fundraising.
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"North Carolina Republicans Push Extreme Voter Suppression Measures"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53328>
Posted on July 23, 2013 9:17 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53328> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Ari Berman's latest:<http://www.thenation.com/blog/175395/north-carolina-republicans-push-extreme-voter-suppression-measures>

 Here are the details<https://m.facebook.com/joshhstein/posts/10200895286880231?refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F820nAsXgre&refid=9&_rdr#_=_>, via North Carolina State Senator Josh Stein (D-Wake County):

If anyone had any doubt about the bill's intent to suppress voters, all he/she has to do is read it. The bill now does the following:

*shortens early voting by 1 week,
*eliminates same day registration and provisional voting if at wrong precinct,
*prevents counties from offering voting on last Saturday before the election beyond 1 pm,
*prevents counties from extending poll hours by one hour on election day in extraordinary circumstances (like lengthy lines),
*eliminates state supported voter registration drives and preregistration for 16/17 year olds,
*repeals voter owned judicial elections and straight party voting,
*increases number of people who can challenge voters inside the precinct, and
*purges voter rolls more often.

Meanwhile, it floods the democratic process with more money. The bill makes it easier for outside groups to spend on electioneering and reduces disclosure of the sources. It also raises the contribution limits to $5k per person per election from $4k and indexes to amount to rise with inflation.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53328&title=%E2%80%9CNorth%20Carolina%20Republicans%20Push%20Extreme%20Voter%20Suppression%20Measures%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"RECENT HITS (for all papers announced in the last 60 days) TOP 10 Papers for Journal of LSN: Election Law & Voting Rights (Topic)"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53325>
Posted on July 23, 2013 9:06 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53325> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I'll try to post the SSRN Recent Hits in this area every two months:

RECENT HITS (for all papers announced in the last 60 days)
TOP 10 Papers for Journal of LSN: Election Law & Voting Rights (Topic) [cid:image002.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0] <http://papers.ssrn.com/publicRss/rssManagerInc.cfm?journalId=991929>
May 24, 2013 to July 23, 2013
Rank

Downloads

Paper Title

1

167

The Seventeenth Amendment and Federalism in an Age of National Political Parties <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2269077>
David Schleicher<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=469670>,
George Mason University - School of Law, Faculty,
Date posted to database: May 25, 2013
Last Revised: May 25, 2013

2

163

Three Wrong Progressive Approaches (and One Right One) to Campaign Finance Reform <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2293979>
Richard L. Hasen<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=337>,
University of California, Irvine - School of Law,
Date posted to database: July 15, 2013
Last Revised: July 19, 2013

3

150

Shelby County and the Illusion of Minimalism <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2291612>
Richard L. Hasen<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=337>,
University of California, Irvine - School of Law,
Date posted to database: July 9, 2013
Last Revised: July 9, 2013

4

76

A Reply to Professors Cain and Charles <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2288725>
Lawrence Lessig<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=17068>,
Harvard University - Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, Harvard Law School,
Date posted to database: July 4, 2013
Last Revised: July 4, 2013

5

70

Fixing 501(c)(4): Recalibrating the Tax Subsidy for Lobbying and Political Activity <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2274827>
David S. Miller<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=243768>,
Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft,
Date posted to database: June 7, 2013
Last Revised: June 7, 2013

6

61

Alexander's Genius <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2268206>
Mitchell N. Berman<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=136813>,
University of Texas School of Law,
Date posted to database: May 23, 2013
Last Revised: June 12, 2013

7

47

Corruption Temptation <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2272189>
Guy-Uriel E. Charles<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=282370>,
Duke Law School,
Date posted to database: May 31, 2013
Last Revised: May 31, 2013

8

47

Photo ID, Provisional Balloting, and Indiana's 2012 Primary Election <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2277858>
Michael J. Pitts<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=405097>,
Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law,
Date posted to database: June 13, 2013
Last Revised: July 8, 2013

9

37

A Cure Worse than the Disease? <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2272180>
Ellen D. Katz<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=265855>,
University of Michigan Law School,
Date posted to database: May 31, 2013
Last Revised: June 6, 2013

10

35

The Election Law Connection and U.S. Federalism <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2110776>
Kirsten Nussbaumer<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1642677>,
Stanford University,
Date posted to database: July 17, 2012
Last Revised: June 11, 2013

[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53325&title=%E2%80%9CRECENT%20HITS%20%28for%20all%20papers%20announced%20in%20the%20last%2060%20days%29%20TOP%2010%20Papers%20for%20Journal%20of%20LSN%3A%20Election%20Law%20%26%20Voting%20Rights%20%28Topic%29%>
Posted in pedagogy<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=23> | Comments Off
Archived Webcast of UCI Law Supreme Court Term in Review Now Available<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53321>
Posted on July 23, 2013 9:00 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53321> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Watch here:<http://youtu.be/xCYz5jFtijI> [corrected link]

 *   Mario Barnes<http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/barnes/index.html>, UCI Law
 *   Joan Biskupic<http://blogs.reuters.com/joan-biskupic/>, Reuters
 *   Erwin Chemerinsky<http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/chemerinsky/index.html>, UCI Law
 *   Miguel Estrada<http://www.gibsondunn.com/lawyers/mestrada>, Gibson Dunn (DC office)
 *   Adam Liptak<http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/bio-liptak.html>, New York Times
 *   Doug NeJaime<http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/nejaime/index.html>, UCI Law
 *   Moderated by Rick Hasen<http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/index.html>, UCI Law
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53321&title=Archived%20Webcast%20of%20UCI%20Law%20Supreme%20Court%20Term%20in%20Review%20Now%20Available&description=>
Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29> | Comments Off
"Watchdogs' Filing Reminds FEC that it Has No Authority to Declare Federal Laws Unconstitutional"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53318>
Posted on July 23, 2013 8:56 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53318> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

See here<http://www.campaignlegalcenter.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2197:july-23-2013-watchdogs-filing-reminds-fec-that-it-has-no-authority-to-declare-federal-laws-unconstitutional&catid=63:legal-center-press-releases&Itemid=61>.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53318&title=%E2%80%9CWatchdogs%E2%80%99%20Filing%20Reminds%20FEC%20that%20it%20Has%20No%20Authority%20to%20Declare%20Federal%20Laws%20Unconstitutional%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments Off
"Michele Bachmann says Barack Obama can use executive order to give voting rights to illegal immigrants legalized under Senate bill"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53316>
Posted on July 23, 2013 8:55 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53316> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

PANTS ON FIRE!<http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/23/michele-bachmann/michele-bachmann-says-barack-obama-can-use-executi/>
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53316&title=%E2%80%9CMichele%20Bachmann%20says%20Barack%20Obama%20can%20use%20executive%20order%20to%20give%20voting%20rights%20to%20illegal%20immigrants%20legalized%20under%20Senate%20bill%E2%80%9D&descriptio>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"The Aftermath of Shelby County v. Holder: Will Voting Rights Be Diminished?"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53314>
Posted on July 23, 2013 8:53 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53314> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Norman Siegel and Janos Marton blog.<http://www.citylandnyc.org/the-aftermath-of-shelby-county-v-holder-will-voting-rights-be-diminished/>
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Posted in Voting Rights Act<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15> | Comments Off
"OPEN Act Would End Secret Corporate Political Spending"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53312>
Posted on July 23, 2013 8:52 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53312> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Corporate Counsel<http://www.law.com/corporatecounsel/PubArticleCC.jsp?id=1202610945950&kw=OPEN%20Act%20Would%20End%20Secret%20Corporate%20Political%20Spending&et=editorial&bu=National%20Law%20Journal&cn=20130723&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily%20Headlines> reports.<http://www.law.com/corporatecounsel/PubArticleCC.jsp?id=1202610945950&kw=OPEN%20Act%20Would%20End%20Secret%20Corporate%20Political%20Spending&et=editorial&bu=National%20Law%20Journal&cn=20130723&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily%20Headlines>
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Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments Off
"House Committees Want IRS Chief Counsel's Documents"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53310>
Posted on July 23, 2013 8:51 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53310> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Corporate Counsel reports<http://www.law.com/corporatecounsel/PubArticleCC.jsp?id=1202611268741&kw=House%20Committees%20Want%20IRS%20Chief%20Counsel%27s%20Documents&et=editorial&bu=National%20Law%20Journal&cn=20130723&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily%20Headlines&slreturn=20130623115148>.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53310&title=%E2%80%9CHouse%20Committees%20Want%20IRS%20Chief%20Counsel%E2%80%99s%20Documents%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, tax law and election law<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=22> | Comments Off
"IRS Scrutinized Some Liberal Groups"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53305>
Posted on July 22, 2013 7:40 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53305> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Politico reports.<http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/irs-scrutinized-liberal-groups-94556.html?hp=l3>
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53305&title=%E2%80%9CIRS%20Scrutinized%20Some%20Liberal%20Groups%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, tax law and election law<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=22> | Comments Off
"Julius Henson 'Robo Call' Verdict Affirmed by Md. Appeals court"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53303>
Posted on July 22, 2013 7:38 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53303> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP<http://afro.com/sections/news/baltimore/story.htm?storyid=78650>: "Maryland's second-highest court has affirmed the verdict<http://www.mdcourts.gov/opinions/cosa/2013/1046s12.pdf> in the election fraud trial of a campaign consultant involving Election Day automated calls that prosecutors said were aimed at keeping Black voters from the polls."

Via Robbin Stewart, who offers some thoughts<http://ballots.blogspot.com/2013/07/where-im-working-this-week-i-have-to-go.html> about the case.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53303&title=%E2%80%9CJulius%20Henson%20%E2%80%98Robo%20Call%E2%80%99%20Verdict%20Affirmed%20by%20Md.%20Appeals%20court%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12> | Comments Off
"FEC To Vote To Treat Married Same-Sex Couples Equally"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53299>
Posted on July 22, 2013 7:33 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53299> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

TPM reports<http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/07/fec-vote-treat-married-same-sex-couples-equally.php?ref=fpa>.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53299&title=%E2%80%9CFEC%20To%20Vote%20To%20Treat%20Married%20Same-Sex%20Couples%20Equally%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, federal election commission<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=24> | Comments Off
Hey, If You Love or Hate Rick Pildes's Post on Election Fraud and the Civil War...<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53296>
Posted on July 22, 2013 4:00 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53296> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

then address your comments to him about this. <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53236>

I've been getting lots of email.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53296&title=Hey%2C%20If%20You%20Love%20or%20Hate%20Rick%20Pildes%E2%80%99s%20Post%20on%20Election%20Fraud%20and%20the%20Civil%20War%E2%80%A6&description=>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"Super PACs, other independent political groups already setting pace for 2016 presidential race"<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53293>
Posted on July 22, 2013 3:32 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53293> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

WaPo reports.<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/super-pacs-other-independent-political-groups-already-setting-pace-for-2016-presidential-race/2013/07/22/784cac46-efba-11e2-9008-61e94a7ea20d_story.html>
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53293&title=%E2%80%9CSuper%20PACs%2C%20other%20independent%20political%20groups%20already%20setting%20pace%20for%202016%20presidential%20race%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> | Comments Off
Jack Balkin's Teaching Notes for Shelby County<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53290>
Posted on July 22, 2013 3:29 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53290> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

They are here. <http://balkin.blogspot.com/2013/07/teaching-materials-for-shelby-county-v.html>

We cover much the same ground in the 2013 Election Law casebook supplement<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53174>.

And I take much of the same viewpoint as Jack in my APSA paper, Shelby County and the Illusion of Minimalism<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2291612>.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53290&title=Jack%20Balkin%E2%80%99s%20Teaching%20Notes%20for%20Shelby%20County&description=>
Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, Voting Rights Act<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15> | Comments Off
Justice Scalia, Statutory Interpretation and Godwin's Law<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53287>
Posted on July 22, 2013 12:34 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=53287> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Via the NYT Taking Note blog<http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/22/scalias-latest-outburst/?hp>.

Dynamic statutory interpretation apparently leads to Naziism.
[cid:image001.png at 01CE8899.140D41B0]<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D53287&title=Justice%20Scalia%2C%20Statutory%20Interpretation%20and%20Godwin%E2%80%99s%20Law&description=>
Posted in statutory interpretation<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=21> | Comments Off

--

Rick Hasen

Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science

UC Irvine School of Law

401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000

Irvine, CA 92697-8000

949.824.3072 - office

949.824.0495 - fax

rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>

hhttp://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/

http://electionlawblog.org
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