[EL] True the Vote continues to deceive

[Rob Richie]

Thanks for pointing this out, Paul. It was rather surprising to see True
the Vote's defensive response to this. As a reminder it posted an "apology"
(
http://www.truethevote.org/news/true-the-vote-comment-on-corrected-voter-suppression-report)
 that started this way:"We stand by True the Vote's report. Everything we
said about the major conclusions in the report are correct. In a
supplementary section, there was a methological error and it has been
acknowledged and addressed."

Yet the current copy of the report has no such acknowledgment and the
legacies of its former errors remain, as Paul details. Furthermore, the
 turnout "findings" had before been splashed prominently on page one, not
hidden. They were featured in some news reports on the report as well.

Going further into the need for correction, the four states with the
strictest voter ID requirements all in fact had sharp declines in turnout
in 2012 relatively to 2008. Here they are, with their declines in eligible
voter turnout relative to 2008 (this is based on Michael McDonald's
invaluable data athttp://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm  using "total
ballots" cast for these states for both elections, which is higher than
just presidential turnout).

* Georgia: down 4.0 percentage points
* Indiana: down 4.3 percentage points
* Kansas: down 5.4 percentage points
* Tennessee: down 4.8 percentage points

The national decline in turnout, as a reminder, was 3.8 percentage points-
- and that included unusually high declines in New Jersey and New York due
in part to Hurricane Sandy. The median state decline was 3.4 percentage
points.

This doesn't mean voter ID caused these declines, but I would say the onus
is on defenders of it to explain these declines - -and certainly not
whitewash them once they discover the data cuts against the argument they
were making. I would include those with some explaining to do being two of
the prominent speakers headlining True the Vote's upcoming conference --
up-and-coming politicians Kris Kobach (Kansas Secretary of State) and Scott
Gessler (Colorado Secretary of State). Kobach's state had a decline in VEP
turnout of 5.4 percentage points under his watchful eye.

Rob Richie, FairVote



On Wed, Mar 6, 2013 at 12:13 PM, Paul Gronke <paul.gronke at gmail.com> wrote:

> I tried to be nice the first time to True the Vote, but as Fairvote
> pointed out to me on Twitter, their revised report (linked here:
> http://www.truethevote.org/news/true-the-vote-report-proves-widespread-claims-of-voter-suppression-false)
> only makes things worse.
>
> All the evidence on turnout (debunked first by me then more devastatingly
> by FairVote on this list) have been removed, yet the claims of turnout
> effects remain on pg. 4 of their report:
>
>         Pg 4: "Further, voter turnout rates should have demonstrated drops
> in participation.In both cases, our research proves otherwise."
>
>         Necessary correction: The research as been removed and the
> previous research has been shown to be inaccurate.
>
> This comment about lines in Florida may have been in the first draft of
> the report, but is also inaccurate.  This is from pg. 5 of the report:
>
>         Pg. 5: "the combination of roll purges, early voting changes and
> photo ID requirements did not manifest any clear negative impacts in 2012.
> While some voters complained of long lines, especially during early voting,
> the average wait time was 50 minutes for Floridians."
>
>         Necessary correction: The average wait time in Florida was the
> longest nationwide by far.  It was nearly four times the national average
> of 14 minutes, and 50% higher than the next state on the list (Maryland, at
> 28.8 minutes).
>
>         Data are reported here
> http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/02/05/us/politics/how-long-it-took-groups-to-vote.html
> .
>
>         If this is evidence of no "negative impact," I'd hate to see what
> a negative impact looks like!
>
> What makes this frustrating for an academic is that the impact of voter ID
> requirements on turnout and on wait time remains an open question, at least
> as far as I read the scholarship thus far.  The discussion isn't helped
> along by badly misleading and poorly documented reports.
>
> ---
> Paul Gronke     Ph:   503-517-7393
>                         Fax: 503-661-0601
>
> Professor, Reed College
> Director, Early Voting Information Center
> 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
> Portland OR 97202
>
>


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Rob Richie
Executive Director

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