[EL] History of statewide recounts

[Rob Richie]

We have data on every recount from 2000 to 2012 summarized here:
http://www.fairvote.org/statewide-recounts-remain-scarce-zero-in-201<http://www.fairvote.org/statewide-recounts-remain-scarce-zero-in-201#.Un_vNvlwp8E>

This table shows the 19 recounts in this period.
http://www.fairvote.org/assets/FairVote-Recounts-2000-to-2012-Table.pdf

And a more detailed report on 2000-2009:
http://www.fairvote.org/recounts<http://www.fairvote.org/recounts#.Un_xwPlwp8E>

The closest statewide race in in initial count that period was in a 2010
Arizona ballot measure, closely followed by the Franken-Coleman race in
Minnesota in 2008. The closest after the recount was the Gregoire-Rossi
race for governor in Washington.

Note that the latter two races were two of the three races to have a
changed outcome by a recount in this period. That is, 99.5% of statewide
elections did not have a recount, and the initial certified count held up
in 99.9% of statewide races. The average margin change in recounts was
0.03%, which goes down the bigger the state's population. This is is FAR
less than the 0.5% "trigger' that many states have for recounts -- that
while a small change ,if the latest Virginia numbers hold up by the time of
the certified count , it could easily be a race where the recount could
change the outcome.

I expect if you are going back in history, some early elections had very
close margins because there were far fewer voters.

Rob Richie


On Sun, Nov 10, 2013 at 3:37 PM, Adam Bonin <adam at boninlaw.com> wrote:

> According to Wikipedia – so it might be true! – in modern history that
> race is first (in terms of closeness percentage of overall vote),
> Gregoire-Rossi in WA-GOV 2004 is second, and the LBJ-Coke Stevenson primary
> of 1948 is third.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results
>
>
>
> --Adam
>
>
>
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *John Fund
> *Sent:* Sunday, November 10, 2013 3:33 PM
> *To:* Michael P McDonald; law-election at UCI.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] History of statewide recounts
>
>
>
> how about New Hampshire US Senate race of 1974, so close It had a makeover
> in 1975
>
> On Sunday, November 10, 2013 3:26 PM, Michael P McDonald <mmcdon at gmu.edu>
> wrote:
>
>
> In Virginia we are narrowing down to an election outcome where the two
> candidates for Attorney general will be separated by perhaps less than 100
> votes out of 2.2 million. Reporters want to know if this will be the
> closest statewide margin in history where there were, say, over 1 million
> vote cast. So, I throw the question to the combined wisdom of the list
> serve: what was the closest statewide election in history?
>
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor
> George Mason University
> 4400 University Drive - 3F4
> Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
>
> phone:  703-993-4191 (office)
> e-mail:  mmcdon at gmu.edu
> web:    http://elections.gmu.edu/
> twitter: @ElectProject
>
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