[EL] Voter turnout

Thu Apr 10 08:12:58 PDT 2014

We (me, Alan Gerber, and Seth Hill) have a recent paper out that 
exploits the roll out of all mail elections in Washington counties. We 
estimate effects of about 2 to 4 points, with some evidence that it 
attracts less regular voters.

Abstract:

What effect does moving to all-mail elections have on participation? On 
one hand, all registered voters automatically receive a ballot to return 
by mail at their convenience. On the other hand, the social aspect of 
the polling place, and the focal point of election day, is lost. Current 
estimates of the effect of all-mail elections on turnout are ambiguous. 
This article offers an improved design and new estimates of the effect 
of moving to all-mail elections. Exploiting cross-sectional and temporal 
variation in county-level implementation of all-mail elections in 
Washington State, we find that the reform increased aggregate 
participation by two to four percentage points. Using individual 
observations from the state voter file, we also find that the reform 
increased turnout more for lower-participating registrants than for 
frequent voters, suggesting that all-mail voting reduces turnout 
disparities between these groups.

Political Science Research and Methods / Volume 1 / Issue 01 / June 
2013, pp 91 - 116
Link (gated): http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.5
Link (ungated): http://huber.research.yale.edu/materials/28_paper.pdf

On 4/10/2014 10:41 AM, Charles Stewart III wrote:
>
> Paul, as always, has provided an exemplary intervention on behalf of 
> what the literature of political science tells us about administrative 
> changes and turnout.
>
> I would make one correction (that will REALLY surprise Paul): I am 
> aware of research done in Florida around 2000 that examined the 
> effects of Florida's election law changes that allowed certain local 
> elections to be conducted by mail. These were, for sure, annexation 
> and millage rate elections, and they may have been (I forget the 
> details) regular municipal elections, too.
>
> Huge turnout increases.
>
> I would also add the research of Sarah Sled, whose PhD dissertation at 
> MIT in 2008 was about all-mail elections and turnout.  Here is the 
> link: http://18.7.29.232/handle/1721.1/46634. Here is an excerpt from 
> the abstract:
>
> The implementation of Vote By Mail produces turnout effects that 
> increase in magnitude as the salience of the election decreases, with 
> a range from 3.4 percentage points increase in the high salience 
> category of presidential general elections to an increase in turnout 
> of 15 percentage points in the low salience category of local special 
> elections.
>
> By the way, Sarah also finds the typical political science result, in 
> so far as her investigation of whether VBM changes _/outcomes/_ turns 
> up a big goose egg.
>
> -cs
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Charles Stewart III
>
> Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science
>
> Housemaster of McCormick Hall
>
> Department of Political Science
>
> The Massachusetts Institute of Technology
>
> E53-449
>
> 30 Wadsworth Street
>
> Cambridge, Massachusetts   02139
>
> Office: 617-253-3127
>
> *From:*law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu 
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of 
> *Paul Gronke
> *Sent:* Thursday, April 10, 2014 9:50 AM
> *Cc:* law-election at uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Voter turnout
>
> Larry
>
> I assume you're asking mainly about administrative changes, right, 
> because the political scientists will (predictably) chime in: make 
> elections more relevant to citizens' everyday lives, make elections 
> more competitive, increase media coverage of elections, improve the 
> educational system.  And age the population so that everyone's over 
> 60.  ;-)
>
> I think it would be fair to say that the easiest reform that has 
> predictably resulted in significant increases in turnout is same-day / 
> election-day registration.  It requires technological improvements to 
> the registration system, and I know our friend Dean Logan is ready for 
> the budgetary infusion that may be needed!  (LA may be already moving 
> in this direction.)
>
> Coordinating municipal elections with presidential elections should 
> result in substantial increases in turnout, but the tradeoff is topic 
> that has been part of the political science literature for 50 years or 
> longer (going back to Wilson's Amateur Democrats at least): the 
> electorate includes a large number of irregular voters who are drawn 
> in by the excitement and interest of the presidential contest.  The 
> reason some states and localities moved their elections off cycle is 
> precisely to *avoid* this.  Turnout is lower, but you get an 
> electorate more predictably knowledgable about local issues.
>
> My comments about the last reform may surprise you, given my 
> affiliation and reputation, but the reform that I think could result 
> in a substantial increase in turnout but for which we do not have 
> systematic research is a fully vote by mail system.  I say this 
> primarily because I have long suspected, and have lots of anecdotes 
> indicating, that full vote by mail has it's largest turnout impact in 
> low profile state and local contests.  But no one has looked at this 
> in a systematic fashion to date.
>
> ---
>
> Paul GronkePh:   503-517-7393
>
>                      Fax: 503-661-0601
>
> Professor, Reed College
>
> Director, Early Voting Information Center
>
> 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
>
> Portland OR 97202
>
> EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net
>
> My public key:http://people.reed.edu/~gronkep/36E051EA.asc 
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>
>
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>
>
> _
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>_
>
> _
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>_
>
> _
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>_
>
> _
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/%7Egronkep/36E051EA.asc>_
>
> On Apr 9, 2014, at 9:30 PM, Larry Levine <larrylevine at earthlink.net 
> <mailto:larrylevine at earthlink.net>> wrote:
>
>
>
> I have been appointed as a member of the Los Angeles City Advisory 
> Commission on Political Reform. I am a member of the sub-committee on 
> research. The main charge of the commission is to look into actions 
> that might increase turnout in municipal elections. Can anyone on the 
> list provide some recent research on this subject? Nothing is off 
> limits ? change of election dates, consolidation with other elections, 
> early voting, expanded number of voting dates, etc.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Larry
>
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-- 
==============================================================
Gregory A. Huber
gregory.huber at yale.edu
http://huber.research.yale.edu

Yale University
Professor, Department of Political Science
Resident Fellow, Institution for Social and Policy Studies
Faculty Affiliate, Center for the Study of American Politics
Director of Graduate Studies, Political Science

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