[EL] Voter turnout

[Paul Gronke]

Larry

The complexity of trying to project turnout!  Great data and let's talk a bit more off line.

The anecdotes I am referring to are based on Montana's move to all-by-mail elections for municipal elections and Kansas's move to all by-mail for certain special elections.  But as always, Montana and Kansas differ from California not just in their method of holding elections!  I write that a bit tongue in cheek but it illustrates the difficulty we face in applying results from one state or jurisdiction to another.

Roll off is another very difficult issue to get a handle on, particularly when the statewide voter history files don't contain full vote histories for non statewide contests.  

I think PPIC has done some very good work in this area as well, but I suspect you are familiar with this.

---
Paul Gronke	Ph:   503-517-7393
                        Fax: 503-661-0601




On Apr 10, 2014, at 8:24 AM, Larry Levine <larrylevine at earthlink.net> wrote:

> A couple of thoughts:
> 1.      We have heard from several city clerks in cities where the election was moved to the higher turnout even number year General Elections. What they have told us is that the drop off factor at the end of the ballot, where the municipal races fall, reduces participation in the municipal election to pretty close to what it was before the move. We are seeking more data on that.
> 2.      I have an anecdotal report from the City of Burbank CA that indicates turnout increased the first time they did an all vote-by-mail election but it subsequently dropped to about the level of what it was before the change. We have more information to gather on this and on the surprisingly large number of Permanent Absentee Voters who were mailed ballots for the November 2012 Presidential Election but never voted.
> Thanks,
> Larry
>  
>  
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Paul Gronke
> Sent: Thursday, April 10, 2014 6:50 AM
> Cc: law-election at uci.edu
> Subject: Re: [EL] Voter turnout
>  
> Larry
>  
> I assume you're asking mainly about administrative changes, right, because the political scientists will (predictably) chime in: make elections more relevant to citizens' everyday lives, make elections more competitive, increase media coverage of elections, improve the educational system.  And age the population so that everyone's over 60.  ;-)
>  
> I think it would be fair to say that the easiest reform that has predictably resulted in significant increases in turnout is same-day / election-day registration.  It requires technological improvements to the registration system, and I know our friend Dean Logan is ready for the budgetary infusion that may be needed!  (LA may be already moving in this direction.)
>  
> Coordinating municipal elections with presidential elections should result in substantial increases in turnout, but the tradeoff is topic that has been part of the political science literature for 50 years or longer (going back to Wilson's Amateur Democrats at least): the electorate includes a large number of irregular voters who are drawn in by the excitement and interest of the presidential contest.  The reason some states and localities moved their elections off cycle is precisely to *avoid* this.  Turnout is lower, but you get an electorate more predictably knowledgable about local issues.
>  
> My comments about the last reform may surprise you, given my affiliation and reputation, but the reform that I think could result in a substantial increase in turnout but for which we do not have systematic research is a fully vote by mail system.  I say this primarily because I have long suspected, and have lots of anecdotes indicating, that full vote by mail has it's largest turnout impact in low profile state and local contests.  But no one has looked at this in a systematic fashion to date.
>  
>  
> ---
> Paul Gronke         Ph:   503-517-7393
>                         Fax: 503-661-0601
>  
> Professor, Reed College
> Director, Early Voting Information Center
> 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
> Portland OR 97202
>  
> EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net
>  
> My public key: http://people.reed.edu/~gronkep/36E051EA.asc
> 

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