[EL] California and bipartisan deal-making [4in EL] ELB News and Commentary 8/31/14

Sun Aug 31 13:59:57 PDT 2014

Rick muses below whether the apparent rise in bipartisan deal-making in the
California legislature has a connection to the Top Two primary and citizen
redistricting.

While Megerian's article doesn't address that question, it does talk about
a key factor that would explain the change in a systematic way: the fact
that Democrats have lot their two-thirds majority that they once had in
both chambers due to resignations. While Republicans could have used that
to obstruct, they chose to use that new power to seek concessions -- with
Gov. Brown seeking that as well and having the power that comes with
widespread acceptance of his re-election to serve another four years.

It will useful to track this, to be sure, but note:

* Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty have been studying the degree of
polarization in states going back two decades and found that from 1996
through 2013, California was the most polarized legislature. See Shor's
writeup of that longer review in the Monkey Cage last January:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/14/how-u-s-state-legislatures-are-polarized-and-getting-more-polarized-in-2-graphs/

* One might wonder how much it changed after moving to Top 2 and using
citizens redistricting for the first time in the 2012 election. Not much,
at least in aggregate -- California was still by far the most polarized
legislature in 2013, as reported by Vox and shown graphically last month:
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5931567/polarization-state-legislature-california-new-york

* And what of Washington State? Washington has used Top 2 starting in the
2008 election, and for most of the previous 7 decades had used the "blanket
primary" that many associate with Top Two. Washington was the 5th most
polarized legislature in 1996 to 2013, and it was the 4th most polarized
legislature in 2013.

* As far as moderation, Shor and McCarty's ratings in 2013 put California
as the third most liberal legislature, with rankings from a spotcheck
seemingly more connected to state's presidential partisanship than anything
else.

* The most interesting relationship between state polarization and rules
might be Louisiana, which has used its better form of the Top Two system
for far longer. It was the third least polarized legislature in 2013 and
third least polarized from 1996 to 2013. Louisiana doesn't shut out minor
party and longshot major party candidates from the general election ballot;
instead, all candidates run in the general election, and there is a runoff
if no candidate secures a majority.

Rob Richie

On Sun, Aug 31, 2014 at 9:36 AM, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

>
>      “In state Capitol, intransigence gives way to bipartisan deal-making”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64820>
> Posted on August 31, 2014 6:15 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64820> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Important report
> <http://electionlawblog.org/In%20state%20Capitol,%20intransigence%20gives%20way%20to%20bipartisan%20deal-making>
>  from Chris Megerian in the LAT.
>
> What’s really interesting is that Chris does not mention either the
> top-two primary or citizen redistricting as connected to this new (perhaps
> temporary) period of bipartisan cooperation.  I’ve been skeptical of claims
> that either of these measures is producing moderation. But I wonder if this
> is some evidence of the success of these measures.  I await more studies of
> the California case.
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64820&title=%E2%80%9CIn%20state%20Capitol%2C%20intransigence%20gives%20way%20to%20bipartisan%20deal-making%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, citizen
> commissions <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=7>, political parties
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, political polarization
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68>, primaries
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>, redistricting
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>
>      “US Territory Bars Retired Air Force Major From Voting Because He’s
> White” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64818>
> Posted on August 31, 2014 6:09 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64818> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> The *Daily Caller* reports.
> <http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/27/us-territory-bars-retired-air-force-major-from-voting-because-hes-white/>
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64818&title=%E2%80%9CUS%20Territory%20Bars%20Retired%20Air%20Force%20Major%20From%20Voting%20Because%20He%E2%80%99s%20White%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>
>      “Kochs’ Network Wrestles With Expectations for Presidential
> Primaries” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64816>
> Posted on August 31, 2014 6:00 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64816> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Nick Confessore reports
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/us/politics/kochs-network-wrestles-with-expectations-for-presidential-primaries.html?ref=politics>
>  for the NYT.
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64816&title=%E2%80%9CKochs%E2%80%99%20Network%20Wrestles%20With%20Expectations%20for%20Presidential%20Primaries%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
>      “At Risk in Senate, Democrats Seek to Rally Blacks”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64814>
> Posted on August 31, 2014 5:56 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64814> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> NYT reports.
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/us/politics/at-risk-in-senate-democrats-seek-to-rally-blacks.html?ref=politics&_r=0>
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64814&title=%E2%80%9CAt%20Risk%20in%20Senate%2C%20Democrats%20Seek%20to%20Rally%20Blacks%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
>      “Raising bars to legitimate voters is election irregularity”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64812>
> Posted on August 30, 2014 2:16 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64812> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Roger Chesley column
> <http://hamptonroads.com/2014/08/raising-bars-legitimate-voters-election-irregularity>
> :
>
> Fairfax County election officials have asked local, state and federal
> authorities to investigate whether 17 people may have voted twice in the
> 2012 general election – once in the county, and again in Maryland.
>
> Such allegations are shocking. They also need to be considered in context.
>
>
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64812&title=%E2%80%9CRaising%20bars%20to%20legitimate%20voters%20is%20election%20irregularity%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
>      “Governor’s primary shatters spending records”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64810>
> Posted on August 30, 2014 2:14 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64810> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AZ Republic:
> <http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/arizona/politics/2014/08/30/governors-primary-shatters-spending-records/14837279/>
> “Spending in the gubernatorial primary has already made the 2014 race for
> Arizona governor the most expensive contest ever for the state government’s
> top job, an *Arizona Republic *analysis shows.”
>
>
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64810&title=%E2%80%9CGovernor%E2%80%99s%20primary%20shatters%20spending%20records%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
>      “Getting Ferguson Majority to Show Its Clout at Polls”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64808>
> Posted on August 30, 2014 2:12 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64808> by
>  Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Monica Davey writes
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/us/getting-ferguson-majority-to-show-its-clout-at-polls.html?_r=0>this
> must-read NYT report on African-American voter turnout in Ferguson and the
> larger voting wars in Missouri.
>  [image: Share]
> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D64808&title=%E2%80%9CGetting%20Ferguson%20Majority%20to%20Show%20Its%20Clout%20at%20Polls%E2%80%9D&description=>
>   Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voting
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>
>
>    --
> Rick Hasen
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000949.824.3072 - office949.824.0495 - faxrhasen at law.uci.eduhttp://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/http://electionlawblog.org
>
>
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