[EL] ELB News and Commentary 12/9/14

Daniel Tokaji dtokaji at gmail.com
Tue Dec 9 09:23:59 PST 2014


“The Democratic Party’s Long Term Problem Is Worse Than You Think”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68974>
Posted on December 9, 2014 8:57 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68974> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Greg Sargent at WaPo
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/12/08/the-democratic-partys-long-term-problem-is-worse-than-you-think/>
on
the structural difficulties Democrats face in taking back the U.S.
House: “[E]ven in … big swing states [Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
Michigan, and North Carolina] Republicans have large majorities
<http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-interactive-map-before-election.aspx>
in the state legislatures — a holdover from 2010 redistricting on the state
level…. But even if Democrats were to get something approaching neutral
maps in these big states, [Cook’s David] Wasserman estimates, it could
result in just a couple more seats in each state…. [B]eyond the problem of
redistricting is the even more serious problem (for Democrats) of
population distribution.”
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 Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>
Ohio Senate May Vote on State Redistricting Proposal
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68972>
Posted on December 9, 2014 8:44 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68972> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Toledo Blade reports here
<http://www.toledoblade.com/State/2014/12/09/Bipartisan-deal-to-redraw-maps-becoming-reality.html>
on the possibility of a vote this week on a bipartisan redistricting reform
proposal.  The Ohio House approved a joint resolution last week
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68822>.  If the two chambers agree, the
proposed constitutional amendment would go before voters.
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Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>
More Florida Redistricting Documents Released
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68969>
Posted on December 9, 2014 8:37 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68969> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Tampa Bay Times reports
<http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/with-senate-redistricting-lawsuit-pending-court-releases-disputed-documents/2209452>:
“The Florida Supreme Court on Monday thrust into the limelight yet another
secret email that reveals the role of political consultants in the
redistricting process that could have bearing on the pending lawsuit over
Senate redistricting.”  More here
<http://www.news4jax.com/politics/gop-consultant-congratulated-for-guiding-senate-redistricting/30126782>,
here
<http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/08/fla-supreme-court-redistricting/20121273/>
and here
<http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2014/12/08/email-attaboy-may-point-to-illegal-work-by-republican-consultant/>
.
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Posted in redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>
Billionaires United Behind the Next GOP Presidential Candidate?
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68967>
Posted on December 9, 2014 8:25 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68967> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Bloomberg News
<http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-12-08/gop-billionaires-plan-well-pick-the-republican-presidential-candidate>
on yesterday’s NYT story <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68927> that
Republican mega-donors are discussing whether to coalesce behind a single
“establishment” candidate.  Newt Gingrich:  “It’s a disastrously bad idea
and it won’t happen.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
Super PACs and State Elections <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68965>
Posted on December 9, 2014 7:43 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68965> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

On The Upshot
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/upshot/the-special-powers-of-super-pacs-and-not-just-for-federal-elections.html?ref=politics&abt=0002&abg=0>,
Derek Willis analyzes data on Super PAC activity in the 2014 election
cycle, and finds: “[T]hey have expanded their activities far beyond the
original model. In what is a perfectly legal maneuver in many states, they
are at work in state elections, provide a foundation for future elections
and serve as a source of money for other political committees.”  Renata
Strause and I anticipated and discussed the reasons for this
development in *The
New Soft Money* <http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/thenewsoftmoney/>.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
Bauer Responds to Malbin <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68960>
Posted on December 9, 2014 7:21 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68960> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Bob Bauer has this post
<http://www.moresoftmoneyhardlaw.com/2014/12/third-approach-reform/> on
Michael Malbin’s “Third Approach” to Party Coordination
<http://www.cfinst.org/Press/PReleases/14-12-08/CFI%E2%80%99s_Malbin_Calls_for_%E2%80%9CA_Third_Approach%E2%80%9D_to_Party_Coordination.aspx>
.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“McConnell Pushes Campaign Finance Changes”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68958>
Posted on December 9, 2014 7:15 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68958> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Roll Call
<http://blogs.rollcall.com/wgdb/campaign-finance-among-remaining-issues-for-spending-deal-appropriators-say/?dcz=>:
“An effort to ease limits on spending by party committees was among the
late lingering issues as negotiations continued on legislation to keep the
government funded past Thursday.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, legislation
and legislatures <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>
“Measuring Illegal and Legal Corruption in American States”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68955>
Posted on December 9, 2014 7:12 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68955> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Oguzhan Dincer and Michael Johnston* of *the Edmond J. Safra Center for
Ethics Corruption at Harvard have posted results
<http://ethics.harvard.edu/blog/measuring-illegal-and-legal-corruption-american-states-some-results-safra#>
from a survey of reporters on their perceptions of corruption in their
states.  The survey asked about both *illegal corruption* (defined as “the
private gains in the form of cash or gifts by a government official, in
exchange for providing specific benefits to private individuals or groups”)
and* legal corruption *(*“*the political gains in the form of campaign
contributions or endorsements by a government official, in exchange for
providing specific benefits to private individuals or groups, be it by
explicit or implicit understanding”).   They conclude that:

With respect to illegal corruption, Arizona is perceived to be the most
corrupt state, followed by a second group of states, which includes
California and Kentucky, and third group that includes Alabama, Illinois,
and New Jersey. Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, the Dakotas,
and Vermont are perceived to be the least corrupt states, followed by a
second group of states that includes Michigan and Oregon. Kentucky is not
only perceived to be *illegally corrupt* but also *legally corrupt*. With
respect to legal corruption, Kentucky is the most corrupt state followed by
Illinois and Nevada while Massachusetts is the least corrupt state followed
Michigan, Oregon, and Vermont. It is all bad news for Alabama, Georgia,
Illinois, Kentucky, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as their
aggregate scores are in the highest quartiles of both illegal and legal
corruption. Not so bad news for the Dakotas, Idaho, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Oregon, Vermont, and Wyoming, which are perceived least corrupt
both *illegally* and *legally*.

I note that the survey’s definition of “legal corruption” actually includes
some actions that would generally constitute illegal bribery —
specifically, the exchange of campaign contributions for specific official
acts, at least where there’s an explicit offer or agreement.
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Posted in bribery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=54>, conflict of
interest laws <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=20>
“Republicans Clash on Reversing Nuclear Option in Senate”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68953>
Posted on December 9, 2014 6:52 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68953> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Hill reports
<http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/226398-republicans-clash-on-reversing-nuke-option>.
Senators McCain and Graham are among those urging a return to the 60-vote
requirement for cloture on nominations, while Senator Hatch
<http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/12/orrin-hatch-filibuster-113388.html#.VIcLX010y00>
is among
those who favor keeping the current rule requiring only a simple majority.
Senator McConnell, the incoming majority leader, has reportedly taken no
position.
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Posted in legislation and legislatures <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>

“A Crowded GOP Field for 2016 Encounters Donors Reluctant to Commit Early”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68949>
Posted on December 9, 2014 6:31 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68949> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Matea Gold and Tom Hamburger for WaPo
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-crowded-gop-field-for-2016-encounters-donors-reluctant-to-commit-early/2014/12/08/737e5f7e-7f02-11e4-8882-03cf08410beb_story.html?hpid=z1>
:

Efforts by potential Republican presidential candidates to win over wealthy
donors have set off a series of contests for their support that could stall
the GOP race for months.

In Florida, allies of former governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio are
tussling over many of the same donors. In Texas, bundlers are feeling
pulled by Bush, Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Ted Cruz. Perry and Cruz are also
competing for the backing of wealthy evangelical Christians, as are Indiana
Gov. Mike Pence, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Arkansas governor
Mike Huckabee.

Despite the appeals, which have stepped up in recent weeks, many top donors
have committed to being noncommittal, wary of fueling the kind of costly
and politically damaging battle that dominated the 2012 primaries. Senior
party fundraisers believe that most campaigns will not be able to fully set
up their fundraising operations until at least the spring.

The story also notes the contrast on the Democratic side, where big donors
are coalescing behind Hillary Clinton.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“The Secret GOP Tech Summit to Plot 2016″
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68947>
Posted on December 9, 2014 6:23 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68947> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Politico reports
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/republican-technology-2016-113412.html>
:

The Republican Party’s top operatives — including strategists representing
the Koch brothers’ political operation and several leading prospective 2016
presidential candidates – on Monday huddled behind closed doors to discuss
how to synchronize their sometimes competing tech efforts, multiple
attendees confirmed to POLITICO.

The all-day meeting attracted about 40 of the right’s biggest names in tech
and strategy – including Koch operatives Michael Palmer and Marc Short
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/koch-brothers-rnc-113359.html>,
leading strategists from many of the major super PACs and all of the party
committees, as well as close allies of Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry and
Scott Walker.

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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
Democrats Push for Easier Absentee Voting in Virginia Special Election
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68945>
Posted on December 9, 2014 6:15 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68945> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

WaPo
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/dems-in-34th-district-race-push-for-easier-absentee-voting/2014/12/05/e00dd6ca-7ca4-11e4-b821-503cc7efed9e_story.html>:
“Democrats are pressing Loudoun County officials to make it easier for
absentee voting in next month’s special election to replace Virginia state
delegate Barbara Comstock — a fight they’re unlikely to win, and which
shows how close the race may be.”
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Posted in absentee ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>
More on Arizona Disclosure Decision <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68943>
Posted on December 9, 2014 6:11 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68943> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Arizona Republic
<http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/08/judge-tosses-key-campaign-law-news-arizona-politics/20104819/>
and
AP
<http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/80ed32eba3bf4a2c88a22995e8964f22/AZ--Campaign-Law-Arizona/>
report on of Friday’s decision <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68869>
by U.S. District Judge James Teilborg, striking down the state’s “political
committee” definition.  The Arizona attorney general reportedly plans to
seek a stay.

*Update*:  Institute for Justice, which represents plaintiff Dina
Galassini, has this page <http://ij.org/fountain-hills-arizona-speech> with
the court order
<http://ij.org/images/pdf_folder/first_amendment/az_fountain_hills/az-citizen-speech-declaratory-judgment-12-05-2014.pdf>
issued Friday and other useful resources on the case.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Rules for Super PACs Lax, Murky As Their Power Grows in Elections”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68941>
Posted on December 8, 2014 6:50 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68941> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Bloomberg BNA
<http://news.bna.com/mpdm/display/link_res.adp?lt=email&fname=A0G0A9Z7J4&lf=eml&emc=mpdm:mpdm:109>
($)
reports from COGEL <http://www.cogel.org/?page=2014Conference>: “Four years
after super political action committees were first created by court rulings
and Federal Election Commission advisory opinions, the rules for these
increasingly powerful, big-money players in the political arena remain
murky, especially on the key question of how closely they can coordinate
with candidates and political parties, legal experts said Dec. 8 during a
national ethics conference held in Pittsburgh.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
Lawsuit Seeks Counting of Oregon Ballots Rejected for Lack of Signature
Match <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68936>
Posted on December 8, 2014 6:41 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68936> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

>From Oregon comes news of a state lawsuit
<http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/tech/science/environment/2014/12/08/lawsuit-filed-oregon-gmo-labeling-recount/20103591/>
alleging that more than 4600 ballots have been wrongly rejected on the
ground that voters’ signatures on ballot envelopes don’t match those on
file.  These votes could conceivably be enough to swing the result of a
ballot proposition that would require the labeling of genetically modified
food.  Measure 92 trailed by just 812 votes after the initial
canvass, triggering a statewide recount. Among the plaintiffs is a woman
with limited use of her arms and legs who uses a stamp for her signature
and reportedly “received a letter stating her signature didn’t match, but
she didn’t respond because she assumed the letter was a mistake, given her
longstanding disability, which she thought was well-documented in the
county elections office.”  A TRO motion seeking to stop the certification
of results was filed today and may be found here
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/OregonSignatures_TROMotion_00492616.pdf>
.
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Posted in absentee ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, recounts
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>, voters with disabilities
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=71>
Steven Sholk’s Updated “Guide to to Election Year Activities of Section
501(c)(3)” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68933>
Posted on December 8, 2014 6:17 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68933> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The 2014 version is available for download here
<http://www.gibbonslaw.com/Files/Publication/2beb8343-6f5e-4e08-a736-fa657a542b9b/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/f483afe0-a168-4236-b14a-fab7df29b75a/Election%20Year%20Activities%20of%20Section%20501_c_3_%20Organization.pdf>
.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, lobbying
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>, tax law and election law
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=22>
Goldfeder’s Memo to Hillary: Keep Your Eye on the “Magic Number”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68931>
Posted on December 8, 2014 6:10 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68931> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Jerry Goldfeder has this piece
<http://www.stroock.com/SiteFiles/Pub1565.pdf> on Law.com
<http://www.law.com/sites/jerryhgoldfeder/2014/12/04/hillary-keep-your-eye-on-the-magic-number/>,
advising the presumptive presidential candidate to pay more attention to
delegate attention rules this time.  No doubt she will.
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Posted in campaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“81-year-old activist walks from Sarasota to Tallahassee to protest
campaign finance” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68929>
Posted on December 8, 2014 6:02 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68929> by *Dan
Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

If you’re going for a long walk this time of year, might as well do it in
Florida
<http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2014/12/08/year-old-activist-walks-sarasota-tallahassee-protest-campaign-finance/19856601/>
(h/t
Steve Kolbert @Pronounce_the_T).
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“G.O.P. Donors Seek to Narrow Field of Presidential Candidates to One”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68927>
Posted on December 8, 2014 11:12 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68927> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

NYT
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/us/politics/gop-donors-seek-to-narrow-field-of-presidential-candidates-to-one.html?_r=0>:
“Dozens of the Republican Party’s leading presidential donors and
fund-raisers have begun privately discussing how to clear the field for a
single establishment candidate to carry the party’s banner in 2016, fearing
that a prolonged primary would bolster Hillary Rodham Clinton, the likely
Democratic candidate.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
Nader on “Cash Register Politics” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68925>
Posted on December 8, 2014 10:39 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68925> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

At HuffPost
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ralph-nader/cash-register-politics-de_b_6289222.html>
.
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“New California Secretary of State Alex Padilla Plans Tech Overhaul”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68923>
Posted on December 8, 2014 10:35 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68923> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Techwire has this interview
<https://www.techwire.net/new-california-secretary-state-alex-padilla-plans-tech-overhaul/>
.
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Posted in voting technology <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40>
“Goodman Resurrects Long-Dormant Plan To Limit Enforcement Actions of FEC
Staff” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68919>
Posted on December 8, 2014 10:23 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68919> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Bloomberg BNA reports
<http://news.bna.com/mpdm/display/link_res.adp?lt=email&fname=A0F9W8K4E9&lf=eml&emc=mpdm:mpdm:109>
($):
“Federal Election Commission Chairman Lee Goodman apparently is endorsing a
controversial proposed FEC enforcement manual, which would sharply
circumscribe the authority of staffers in the agency’s Office of General
Counsel to investigate alleged campaign finance violations and share
information with other government agencies, including the Department of
Justice.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>


Daniel Tokaji
Charles W. Ebersold & Florence Whitcomb Ebersold Professor of
Constitutional Law
The Ohio State University | Moritz College of Law
614.292.6566 | @Title52law <https://twitter.com/Title52law>
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