[EL] Over-reporting of voting
Douglas Johnson
djohnson at ndcresearch.com
Tue Feb 25 10:25:42 PST 2014
California provides a file containing a list of voters registered statewide,
but the file is merely a compilation of separate databases submitted by the
various counties for archiving with the state. The dates submitted are not
necessarily the same for all counties, and the list is not up-to-date. -
it's only a compilation of archived files. The Secretary of State officially
hopes to roll out the NVRA-required system by June 2016
<http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/votecal/implementation/schedule.htm> .
But: the state hired contractor CGI to implement the system. If that name
sounds familiar, it's because they were the primary contractor for
HealthCare.gov until they were fired by the Obama administration in January
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-administration-to-end-contract
-with-cgi-federal-company-behind-healthcaregov/2014/01/10/001eb05a-719e-11e3
-8b3f-b1666705ca3b_story.html> . CGI's $53 million project is already a full
year behind its original schedule
<http://techwire.net/votecal-contract-to-be-awarded-to-cgi/> . (And the $53
million figure is from 2012.)
California's original attempt to build a NVRA-compliant system, with
contractor Catalyst Consulting Group, was abandoned after spending $4.6
million <http://www.bsa.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2012-112.pdf> . CGI was the only
bidder when the state put out a post-Catalyst RFP.
- Doug
Douglas Johnson, Fellow
Rose Institute of State and Local Government
at Claremont McKenna College
douglas.johnson at cmc.edu
310-200-2058
From: Maceda, Cliff [mailto:cmaceda_CONTRACTOR at ap.org]
Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2014 9:56 AM
To: djohnson at ndcresearch.com; 'Paul Gronke'
Cc: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: RE: [EL] Over-reporting of voting
I was able to get a statewide registration list from California SOS a few
years ago. The voter history was indeed inaccurate, but it was, according
to the state, a complete list of registrants. I couldn't dispute that after
doing various cross-checks, but it's pretty easy for records to get lost in
the wash in a state the size of California.
That said, the availability and quality of data varies tremendously among
the states. Which is a statement that can be applied to a lot more than
just registration lists.
Cliff
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Description:
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Clifford Maceda
Senior Research Coordinator
Election Research & Quality Control
cmaceda at ap.org
www.ap.org <http://www.ap.org/>
450 West 33rd St - 15th Floor/Elections
New York, NY 10001
T 212.621.5458
F 212.506.6740
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Douglas
Johnson
Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2014 12:38 PM
To: 'Paul Gronke'
Cc: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Over-reporting of voting
True - California still does not yet even have a statewide voter database,
much an less accurate list of vote histories in that database.
(The list vendors Larry Levine mentioned in an earlier email gather their
data directly from each individual county.)
- Doug
Douglas Johnson, Fellow
Rose Institute of State and Local Government
at Claremont McKenna College
douglas.johnson at cmc.edu
310-200-2058
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Paul
Gronke
Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2014 9:28 AM
Cc: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Over-reporting of voting
John
One would assume all states are in compliance with NVRA. And one would
assume among the set of states that are in compliance with NVRA, that such
data are reasonably priced.
My past experience writing a report for Pew four years ago was that neither
is true.
BUT even if it were available, the reason that some want to use survey data
is that it provides a far richer set of correlates to help us understand the
determinants of turnout, candidate choice, and a whole host of other things.
The state of the art is to "validate" survey reports using state and county
files, but that can be extremely expensive.
---
Paul Gronke Ph: 503-517-7393
Fax: 503-661-0601
Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center
3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
Portland OR 97202
On Feb 25, 2014, at 7:10 AM, John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com> wrote:
The NVRA requires each state to maintain a record of who has voted in recent
federal elections - at least for states that have voter registration. I
don't see why the summary data would not be available.
On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 12:42 PM, Larry Levine <larrylevine at earthlink.net>
wrote:
Here in California every registrar of voters provides a tape of voter
turnout after each election. Data services store this information and
aggregate it for use in campaigns and other research. So we don't need to
rely on the voter to tell us if he or she voted. This is a huge benefit when
selecting a universe for polling or for targeting campaign activities.
Larry
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Lorraine
Minnite
Sent: Monday, February 24, 2014 9:04 AM
To: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Over-reporting of voting
I applaud the effort to improve the quality of voting survey data. It looks
like prompting respondents with a kind of warning about the ability of the
survey researcher to check up on what the respondent says can cause the
respondent to think more carefully about his or her answer. What most of
these efforts and the commentary on them neglect is the fact that 1) many
people attempt to vote and are thwarted for one reason or another - they go
to the polls and confront a line they don't have the time to wait in, or
they cast a provisional ballot that isn't counted, for example. This can
lead to a false presumption or even memory that the respondent actually
voted when there is no recorded vote for the person. So research that aims
to improve the accuracy of voting data should operate both ways - in
reducing what many (but not me) call "lying" by survey respondents, and (and
this is much more difficult to operationalize in relevant detail) in
accounting for and measuring the votes "lost" to problems we can fix with
better designed and de-politicized election administration. Given what we
actually do know about the voting experience and what we should incorporate
into our analysis regarding the predictability of human error, all of the
error in the mismatch between what respondents recall from memory and
election records can not possibly be due to respondent misreporting alone.
Lori Minnite
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=58972> "New Pew Dispatch Examines Research
on Over-Reporting of Turnout in Surveys"
Posted on February 24, 2014 7:22 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=58972>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
A ChapinBlog.
<http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/electionacademy/2014/02/new_pew_dispatch_exami
nes_new.php>
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%
3Fp%3D58972&title=%E2%80%9CNew%20Pew%20Dispatch%20Examines%20Research%20on%2
0Over-Reporting%20of%20Turnout%20in%20Surveys%E2%80%9D&description=>
<image001.png>
Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
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