[EL] Snow, split votes & control of the Virginia state senate

[Rob Richie]

Remarkable what power in our representative democracy can hinge on -- the
accident of weather, voting technology and quirky plurality voting rules.

Today, control of the Virginia state senate will be determined by a
low-turnout special election on a day in which a major snowstorm is shortly
to begin. If Virginia had all-mail elections for such special elections,
turnout almost certainly would be higher in all instances -- and especially
when Election Day comes with bad weather.

There also are three major candidates rather than two -- with an
independent who as an incumbent lost his Republican primary last year to a
more conservative candidate. His impact on the race is a wildcard, although
the fact that he would caucus with the Republicans presumably will be more
likely to split Republican-leaning voters and thereby help the Democrat.
With instant runoff voting, we wouldn't need to guess. (As an aside,
Democrats in nearby Arlington, Virginia next month will use instant runoff
to pick their candidate for a special election.)

And if the razor-thin attorney general race had gone to the Republican in
November, this seat wouldn't be open in the first place.

Assuming that at Democrat clings to his nine-vote margin in a recount of a
recent special election for state senate, the current split is 20
Republican to 19 Democrats. A Democratic win would keep them in charge,
absent any other changes, because the lieutenant governor gets to cast the
tie vote.

More broadly, this election has more sweeping meaning. Two decades ago, the
Democrats controlled every state legislative chamber in the South, with
coalitions of black and white representatives running these chambers.
Today, that number of Democratic-controlled chambers is down to three
outside of Virginia -- with Democrats clinging to vulnerable majorities in
the Kentucky house and West Virginia's two chambers.That leaves the region
in the country with majority of the nation's African Americans living in
states where nearly every piece of state legislation has to be approved by
legislative chambers that are dominated overwhelmingly by white legislators
who receive very few African American votes. It would be a shock of any of
these Republican-controlled chambers flipped back to Democrats any time
soon.

- Rob




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
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