[EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
Larry Levine
larrylevine at earthlink.net
Mon Jul 7 10:35:07 PDT 2014
In various non-federal elections voters have been offered incentives to
vote. One offer was a 2 for 1 chicken dinner if you would bring your voting
stub to the restaurant along with a non-partisan post card received in the
mail. Of course the offer was mailed only to targeted voters in selected
precincts. Others have offered taco dinners, a dozen donuts, a record album.
Do the votes cast because of these offers create a better or worse electoral
system or government? It has been suggested that everyone who votes might be
eligible for a lottery drawing with substantial prizes as a way of
increasing turnout. It would have to be a non-federal election of course and
those who care only about numbers probably would find little objection to
this. The Los Angeles Times editorial board found the idea reprehensible.
There's also Australia, where voting is mandatory. Where did they score in
the world cup?
Larry
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Smith,
Brad
Sent: Monday, July 07, 2014 10:14 AM
To: Zachary Roth
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
Sure, that's the worry (or one of the worries). But that's an after the fact
analysis of a particular situation, not an a priori argument that high
turnout is inherently a good thing. For example, I'm sure that the
electorate in low turnout elections in Switzerland indeed skews white, too -
but it would do so in high turnout elections as well.
Suppose, for example, that a low turnout election did not skew in all those
undesirable ways (white, upper-income, well-educated). Would you still care?
Maybe you would, but that argument would be certainly be gone.
And what are some of the reasons people might not be concerned about
turnout? Again, the basic idea that relatively low turnout may mean that the
society and the body politic have ample checks against extremism, sudden,
jarring change, loss of liberties and a decline in the rule of law would be
one. Others would argue that a smaller, more motivated, better informed
electorate is preferable to a larger, coaxed, uninformed electorate, so long
as the process is open. So long as the process is open, the fact that
turnout is low probably doesn't matter a lot. There are other arguments as
well.
In my view, the proof of a good political/electoral system is in the
pudding. Elections are merely a means to ends. Is the society governed well,
and does the system provide for orderly changes of power, particularly in
the case of abuse of power? Are rights and liberties respected? Does the
system facilitate growth and prosperity? I just don't think that one can
show that high turnout elections lead to more effective government, greater
political stability while accommodating change, greater respect for
individual liberty, and greater prosperity for all than do low turnout
elections. Perhaps in particular circumstances, but as a general matter? No.
It takes no great research to see that many of our most successful
democracies have had consistently low turnouts. Would they be even more
successful if they worked to pump up turnout? Who knows. But high turnout
doesn't seem critical to their success.
So the question should not be - as it is in the Fairvote model - whether
turnout is high or low. It is to what extent, if any, should changes in the
electoral system be made to assure effective government, greater stability
accompanied by opportunities for change, respect for liberty and the rule of
law, and prosperity. (Add other goals if you desire). Those changes may
result in higher turnout. But I don't think that the evidence justifies
defining lower turnout as inherently problematic.
Once more: If you've got a model that ranks Argentina and Russia ahead of
the US, you need a better model.
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
_____
From: Zachary Roth [zacharyr46 at gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, July 07, 2014 12:15 PM
To: Smith, Brad
Cc: Salvador Peralta; Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
Thanks for these responses. It seems like these arguments don't have much to
do with how this actually plays out. In reality, low turnout usually means a
turnout that skews white, upper-income, and well-educated (at least in
federal elections, but I think also in others). So when people worry about
low turnout, that's sort of a shorthand for worrying about an electorate
that doesn't accurately represent the voting-age population, leading to a
government that doesn't pay attention to the interests of marginalized
groups.
Maybe that's not something people here see as anything to be concerned about
(would love to hear that argument, too). But it seems worth being clear on
what I think most people mean when they worry about low turnout.
On Sun, Jul 6, 2014 at 7:00 PM, Smith, Brad <BSmith at law.capital.edu> wrote:
I think, Sal, you should try to answer this question yourself. I mean this
seriously: think, why would a person suggest that the fact that a near
majority of voters can sometimes elect a usually narrow majority of the
legislature is a strength, or at least not a weakness.
Consider things such whether there are any merits to federalism; to
representation based on geographic districts with winner take all; or to
having districts drawn with purpose rather than randomly, for starters. Then
compare a system that yields such results not to an idealized version of
competing systems, but to their actual reality.
Then consider again the merits of a system that ranks Argentina and Russia
ahead of the United States as a democracy, and consider what flaws there
might be in that model.
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
_____
From: Salvador Peralta [oregon.properties at yahoo.com]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 8:01 PM
To: Smith, Brad; Rob Richie
Cc: Election Law
Subject: Re: [EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
The ability to manipulate districts to enable a minority of voters to win a
majority of seats in our legislature is a strength of our electoral system?
How so?
_____
From: "Smith, Brad" <BSmith at law.capital.edu>
To: Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
Cc: Election Law <Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Sent: Thursday, July 3, 2014 4:04 PM
Subject: Re: [EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
What's interesting is that there are very strong arguments that all of these
things represent the strength of American democracy and our electoral
system. The absurdity of a ranking putting Argentina and Russia ahead of the
US may be evidence that the raters do not understand what their data means.
Bradley Smith
Sent from my iPhone
On Jul 3, 2014, at 6:59 PM, "Rob Richie" <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:
Not to bore the list, but just briefly, the FairVote crew used four
different measures. One is based on the Economist's "Democracy Index", which
measures overall democratic health -- court system, press, etc. The US does
pretty well there, ranking 7th among the nations, with countries like
Algeria and Russia far behind. So good for us there, even if we're a good
bit behind countries like Australia, Netherlands, and Switzerland.
But they did want to make this more heavily focused on elections. And there,
Americans do have to face up to a few facts like:
- Voter turnout in the US is exceptionally low in internal norms
- Representation of women in Congress is very low, which we see as a window
into other limitations in how well we represent the electorate.
- Congress can have an approval rating around 10%, yet more than 98% of
House incumbents almost certainly be returned to office this November -
returning us to the four elections from 1998 to 2004 where each year more
than 98% of House incumbents won even in years like 2002 when more than half
of states switched parties in gubernatorial elections. (Note that FairVote
will be able to call winners for November 2016 in close to 90% of races just
two days after this November's election using a methodology that is quite
likely to be 100% accurate.)
- Republicans won 54% of seats in 2012 with 48% of votes, and likely would
not lose control of the House this year without dropping below 45% of votes
(and this can happen to the GOP in some states, like in NJ, where its
assembly candidates won only 40% of seats with 50% of votes in 2013). So we
don't do seats-to-votes very well for the major parties, and of course not
all for emerging parties seeking to hold the major parties accountable.
On some of these electoral measures, generally less democratic nations like
Russia and Argentina do a lot better than us. And we think that matters,
even if we recognize the Economist measure as critically important.
Onward,
Rob
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org (301) 270-4616 <tel:%28301%29%20270-4616>
http://www.fairvote.org <http://www.fairvote.org/>
Social Media: FairVote Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>
FairVote Twitter <https://twitter.com/fairvote> My Twitter
<https://twitter.com/rob_richie>
First Million Campaign Thank you for considering a tax-deductible donation
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2495/t/10346/shop/custom.jsp?donate_pa
ge_KEY=5643> to support FairVote's Reform2020.com <http://reform2020.com/>
vision. (Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
On Thu, Jul 3, 2014 at 6:25 PM, Ilya Shapiro <IShapiro at cato.org> wrote:
Um, Russia is tied with the US and Argentina is way ahead. Time to go back
to the drawing board on that ridiculous measurement.
Ilya Shapiro
Senior Fellow in Constitutional Studies,
Editor-in-Chief of the Cato Supreme Court Review
Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20001
tel. (202) 218-4600 <http://UrlBlockedError.aspx>
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Bio/clips: <http://www.cato.org/people/shapiro.html>
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Watch me defend the right to keep and bear arms on the Colbert Report:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/340923/july-08-2010/a
utomatics-for-the-people---ilya-shapiro---jackie-hilly
_____
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rob
Richie
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2014 6:20 PM
To: Election Law
Subject: [EL] If it were a World Cup of Democracy....
Some soccer fans at FairVote are also fans of representative democracy. Even
as they get ready for the quarterfinals this weekend, they decided to
compare nations according to measures of their level of electoral democracy.
Spoiler alert: the US wouldn't even have advanced to the round of 16 based
on this measure.
Happy July 4th - -a good time to mull over how well we're measuring the
"consent of the governed."
- Rob Richie
##############
http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/world-cup-of-democracy-go
es-to-the-netherlands/
World Cup of Democracy Goes to the Netherlands
by <http://www.fairvote.org/list/author/Anthony_Ramicone> Anthony Ramicone,
<http://www.fairvote.org/list/author/Nicholas_Golden> Nicholas Golden,
<http://www.fairvote.org/list/author/Bogdan_Popescu> Bogdan Popescu //
Published July 3, 2014
fifa
<http://www.fairvote.org/assets/_resampled/ResizedImage627495-fifa.jpg>
The FIFA World Cup is underway in Brazil. And while that tournament will
eventually crown the best national soccer team in the world, we wondered
what it would look like if it was crowning the best democracy in the world.
With that in mind, we decided to put together an index that compares
democracies across countries and then apply it to this year's World Cup
field.
In the end, the Netherlands came out on top, defeating Australia in a fairly
lopsided final. You can see how the whole tournament played out in the
graphic above. As to the United States, it didn't even escape its "group of
death" in our Democracy World Cup and ranks 17th among the 32 nations
overall.
But what does it mean to have the world's best democracy (or at least the
best out of World Cup entrants)? Here is what went into our calculation:
1) Turnout
If a lot of people don't bother to vote, your democracy is probably not
healthy. Political participation is at the root of representative democracy,
and voting is perhaps the most basic form of participation. Our turnout
metric is an average of the turnout of the last two nationwide elections as
a percentage of the voting age population,
<http://www.idea.int/vt/index.cfm> as reported by IDEA.
2) Fair Representation of Political Views
How likely is it that your vote will elect someone? Do political parties
receive a share of the power equal to their share of support? These
questions are at the heart of measuring fair representation, or
"proportionality" in political science terms. If, for example, one third of
the voters support a particular political party, they should not be excluded
from the system. To measure this, we use the
<http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts
/ElectionIndices.pdf> Gallagher Index, which calculates the overall
difference between how many votes that different parties get and how many
seats they receive in a country.
3) Women's Representation
Is your democracy inclusive of underrepresented groups? While an ideal
calculation of this would include racial, ethnic, and religious measures,
what constitutes a minority is so varied across countries that it is too
difficult to encapsulate in a single metric. Instead, the percentage of
women in government serves as a good barometer for understanding how well a
democracy represents those who are traditionally excluded. In particular,
<http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/classif.htm> drawing on the Inter-Parliamentary
Union, we use the percentage of women in the lower house of the legislature,
since almost every lower house is directly elected.
4) Legitimacy
Is your democracy a sham? It doesn't matter how inclusive your legislative
chamber is or how many people show up to vote if your elections are rigged.
We use the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index, which measures the
robustness of democracies, as a multiplier in our calculation. This ensures
that superficial democracies, which look good on the surface, or not
rewarded.
You can find all of our
<http://www.fairvote.org/assets/World-Cup-Democracy.xlsx> sortable data and
calculations here which allow you to see which nations are best in each
category. We hope that this serves as a foundation for building an index
that serves to compare democracies around the world, not only measuring how
free or fair they are but also how successful they are at representing the
people they serve.
Some might be surprised to see that the United States did not make it past
the group stage. Not even Tim Howard could save the US from its weak turnout
and poor representation of women in Congress. You can read more about
FairVote's proposed reforms that would <http://www.representation2020.com/>
enhance women's representation , <http://www.promoteourvote.com/> increase
voter turnout and <http://www.fairvoting.us/> improve fair representation.
Stay tuned for our next edition of
<http://www.fairvote.org/assets/Uploads/DubiousDemocracy2010.pdf> Dubious
Democracy, where we have rated states in congressional elections.
Historically we have done a relative index, but the method presented here is
a step towards an absolute measure that will allow for more meaningful
comparisons.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org (301) 270-4616 <http://UrlBlockedError.aspx>
http://www.fairvote.org <http://www.fairvote.org/>
Social Media: FairVote Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>
FairVote Twitter <https://twitter.com/fairvote> My Twitter
<https://twitter.com/rob_richie>
First Million Campaign Thank you for considering a tax-deductible donation
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2495/t/10346/shop/custom.jsp?donate_pa
ge_KEY=5643> to support FairVote's Reform2020.com <http://reform2020.com/>
vision. (Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
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